Oscar Chatter: If It's Yours To Lose, You Can Still Lose
Sunday, August 18, 2013 at 4:27PM Each year as the first "wow" factor players emerge in the Oscar race, pundits (professional and amateur alike), jump all over themselves to declare "winners!" in each of the acting races several months in advance. I always want to pass on analgesic creams when this begins to happen but then I'm more patient than some Oscar fans and prefer the slow sexy fight for nominations to the wham bam foregone conclusions of Oscar night. If you believe the internet Cate Blanchett has it locked up in Best Actress (on the strength of her work in Blue Jasmine) and Oprah Winfrey has it locked up in Supporting Actress (on the rush of excitement that's greeted Lee Daniels' The Butler and her against type work... if you can have a type when you rarely act.) The only trouble is that no one has seen their competition. And your competition is half the equation at least as to whether or not you'll win. (One example: Does Reese Witherspoon's Walk the Line win in a highly competitive year? I think not.)
Oscar loves a drunk. Can Cate & Oprah both win while boozing it up?
The male categories are less clear though we've already heard quite a few "Leonardo DiCaprio finally has it for The Wolf of Wall Street!" (on the strength of his meme-worthy dancing and lively charisma in the trailer) and some have floated Bruce Dern as your future Supporting Actor winner for Nebraska... though his campaign remains a question mark. Nebraska, we know, is one of those Two Lead/Same Gender films that Oscar's acting branch has forgotten how to parse. Nobody ever tried to suggest that Salieri or Amadeus were supporting each other or that the true lead of Thelma & Louise was Thelma OR Louise but they would if those films opened today because times have changed and fans and campaign managers got increasingly shameless.
So will any of these four win? Quite possibly, sure. But they could also all lose. One or more of them might not even be nominated! We haven't seen most of the competitive sets and until the great winnowing of December begins when the precursor awards race in to borify the entire race... let's keep an open mind and enjoy the wide world of possibilities!
OSCAR CHART UPDATES
Best Actress - Will Amy give Cate B a run for her money with Meryl maybe dropping out?
Best Supporting Actress - Can Sally Hawkins and Octavia Spencer stay in the conversation as Oprah sucks up all the late summer oxygen?
Best Actor -It might come down to Leo vs. Matthew unless Old Hollywood rallies for career honors for Dern or Redford or someone else surprises. Oh god, please let there be surprises this year!
Best Supporting Actor - only the editors know... seriously... nothing has happened yet. (sigh)
more updates to follow on the remaining charts
Reader Comments (58)
@season. so Sandra wins for Gravity?
Nathaniel, do you think "Saving Mr Banks" will be campaigned in the Comedy/Musical category at the GG?
The Wolfman - I hope so... maybe i shouldn't say that since i haven't seen it yet. But hopefully we get enough of the music and enough jokes to make it so.
"Give her supporting actress and let Meryl and Julia go head to head for best actress. Then you give Meryl her 4th and position Julia for the next 20 years."
Or let's not with Julia. Who actually think Julia Roberts needs/deserves a second Oscar? Certainly not me.
I am still betting high on Dallas Buyers Club, but i admit i am as biased as it gets with that one. The real life character is my all time hero. And he is very colorful and blunt. It should be as funny as it is heartbreaking. Test Screenings have said Jared Leto is a lock for best supporting. He might have stiff competition from steve carell though. I think steve carell will campaign for supporting. from the script i read. I can't wait for foxcatcher.
Josh -- i've been really surprised how quiet they're keeping DALLAS BUYERS considering it opens relatively soon.
Im a little surprised, but i feel like the other movies are being a little too loud to early. I don't remember so many oscar movies having trailers already at this time of the year. It could also be the quiet before the storm. but the truth for DBC will be out in two weeks when it premieres at toronto. They could want to gain buzz before they market it. Now foxcatcher on the other hand i think they are being way too quiet with. That sounds like a movie that audiences will need to sit with a bit.
I'm pretty sure The Book Thief is gonna be in the conversation. FOX's pre-Thanksgiving drama release ("Life of Pi" slot), great YA novel, the Holocaust, probable comparisons with Monuments Men in that they're both about saving art/literature from Nazi censorship. If it's good, it'll definitely be in the conversation for Picture and Adapted Screenplay, and even if it's not good John Williams' score is certainly gonna be in contention.