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Monday
Oct152018

All Four Oscar Acting Charts Updated

Heads up. We've begun the mid October overhaul of the charts. All four acting charts are updated with the biggest shakeups coming to Best Actor with Christian Bale and Clint Eastwood suddenly both roaring buzz-wise. Please take a look and comment. BEST ACTOR (Christian Bale & Clint Eastwood on the rise) | BEST ACTRESS (Davis and Aparicio on the rise) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (Robert Forster and Sam Elliott on the rise) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (with Colman gone it's anyone's game)

Thoughts? Do share. 

AND THIS JUST IN 10/15: Olivia Colman will be campaigning as lead for The Favourite with Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz officially "supporting" for the tragicomic triangular relationship. The charts have been updated to reflect the switch in presumed campaigns. Mostly this means Supporting Actress has no frontrunner... which is exciting. 

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Reader Comments (103)

I think everyone is overestimating The Favourite. I am happy if Viola gets nominated, but would not underestimate Roberrts and Blunt.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJono

Mostly agree, but I see Gosling and Dafoe ahead of Hawke (not happening) and Eastwood. I also don't think they're done with Adams, but it may be a "no more nominations til she's a likely winner" situation like Julianne Moore.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered Commentereurocheese

I'm still in denial and thinking Toni Collette and Alex Wolff will be nominated and win everything. That scream when she finds out what happened at her car and his line delivery of "She didn't want to go to the party, mom". Geez, acting at its finest, man.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMe34

A little surprised how high you are on "Can You Ever Forgive Me?". I know it has great reviews, but it just doesn't feel like the type of performance and film that is going to stick with voters long enough to make it to nominations. Hopefully I'm wrong, I love McCarthy, but third on the shortlist seems a bit high.

Also, with "First Man" pulling in mediocre numbers this weekend, I think Claire Foy and Ryan Gosling will be lucky to make it in as well. With a 16 million dollar opening weekend it will have to have some fantastic holds to stay in the conversation and forefront of academy members minds.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterZach

I’ll be so sad if Nicole misses for both this year

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMorgan

Is Sam Elliott really a lock?

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMya

I'm really curious about whether Roberts makes it this year. Best Actress is starting to feel a lot like Best Actor 2013, so many big stars and a number of late releases (Bale and DiCaprio both made it in with holiday releases that year).

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

I just saw First Man and was really impressed with Clare Foy!! She was a million times better than Kathleen Quinlan in Apollo 13.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterPatagonia

Nat Considering your past hostility toward Swank's 2nd win have any of her recent performances inspired any confidence in her acting,she's so much better in Trust than Williams was in ATMITW,since she stopped trying to be a leading lady she given us gr8 work in The Homesman,Conviction,Trust Your Not You and now What they Had.A real shame she just can't get over that 2nd Oscar curse.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

@markgordonuk: I have a hunch Swank will not get over that curse until Annette Bening is avenged and gets her first Oscar ;)

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJones

mark -- i have enjoyed her much more after her oscar heyday though she'll never be a 'favorite'. I think she's very strong in THE HOMESMAN and I liked her a lot in WHAT THEY HAD (though for me Michael Shannon and Robert Forster are the MVPs)

eurocheese -- i have no idea why more people aren't convinced that Ethan Hawke could happen. I still believe he's got a great shot at a nomination. He's well liked in hollywood and that film llingered like crazy for so many people. I think there will be some critics awards.

October 14, 2018 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

If that ever happens after that 20thCW snub for her best work.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

Thanks Nat,I find her much more compelling than several other multi nominated actresses at the moment.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

If Michelle Williams got a serious push for I Feel Pretty, we could finally have our Williams-Adams-Weisz rematch!

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMike in Canada

With two megastars locked, Gaga and Close, it's not too crazy to think that Aparicio might get the Montenegro-Sandino-Barraza spot.

I know the Academy is not THAT sentimental anymore, but I can totally see Redford and Spacek getting in. What I can't see is Hawke over Dafoe or Gosling. I would love to because First reformed is so subversive, but can they pass over the image of a priest with a suicide-bomb vest?

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterPeggy Sue

I too think the best actress locks at the moment are Close Gaga and McCarthy. Don't have much confidence about Stone, although I would love to see all the Favourite's ladies getting in, but I think Colman and Weisz have more chances in supporting than Stone has in lead, and Colman has a real shot at winning. I don't know if Davis will happen this year, I can totally see one or two between Aparicio, Roberts and even Blunt (if she wins the Comedy/Musical Globe, taking the last two spots. So sad that Mulligan and Colette chances are so low, they clearly deserve a second nomination. And it will be amazing if McAdams and Nivola find some critics love for their incredible work in Disobedience (as Weisz for The Favourite).
By the way, I just saw with Nathaniel Glenn Close in the new play Mother Of The Maidat at the Public Theater in New York and she really knocked it out of the part, giving a performance so full of intensity, power and even impressing subtlety. A real tour de force. It's definitely her year.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterFerdi

Replace Hawke with Redford or even Gosling.
Best Actress seems off- except for the locks. Still some shuffling there.
Think that will be the supporting categories although lose Amy Adams.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJamie

Ferdi -- Loved your shirt!

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterPeggy Sue

I'm sorry not appear on the commentaries as usual, but the things in my home country are really really REALLY close to became really bad (a fascist president could win the elections) and the other things we love come naturally on the second place after this menace.

I really hope that:

Mortensen - Gosling - Dafoe - Bale - Clint / Hedges

Close - Stone - Blunt - Théron - The girl from Roma / Roberts

Adams - King - Colman - Foy - Swinton / Weisz

Carell (Vice) - Ali - Nivola - Rockwell - Perry

Be nominated.

If

Close
Adams / Colman
Mortensen / Dafoe
Carell

Wins I will be really happy!

To all the Film Experience people who read this, send positive vibes to Brazil now!!

A new kind of fascism more dangerous than WWII could rise here if Jair Bolsonaro wins the election! He must be stopped! Send your best wishes to brazilians choose democracy over fascism. Thanks!

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJon

Peggy Sue - - thank you! Sadly Glenn didn't saw her!

Jon -- Stay strong and best wishes to your country. There's terrible wind blowing around the world. We have a fascist, xenophobic and homophobic government in Italy too since last spring and things are getting really bad.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterFerdi

@Nathaniel and @Ferdi

Who is The Mother of the maid? Do we have a post here on Film Experience? Could Glenn be nominated for the Oscar for The Wife and the Tony for Mother of the Maid? Will be Glenn first time Oscar winner and four time Tony winner till next June? OMG!

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJon

Who's the mother of the maid = How good is the mother of the maid

@Ferdi

In behalf of the people of my country who is still fighting for democracy, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR WORDS!

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJon

You finally letting Kidman go? I'm so proud of you, Nat.

I'm hearing Olivia Colman wants to go lead? I dont get that. She's seems like a slam dunk for Supporting, but then again so does Weisz. Wouldn't be the first time a Fox Searchlight film got double supporting acting nods tho, and if the Favourite is as loved as we think(meaning picture/BD noms, cinematography, costumes, screenplay, etc) then count out the dual nod.

I'm also subbing in Ethan Hawke for Gosling. I'm not even predicting Chazelle anymore for First Man, that's how no1curr that movie is gonna be by December. Like a rich man's Steve Jobs, a supporting actress nom, some tech nods, no wins.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJeremy

Jon - It's Off-Broadway

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterPeggy Sue

Isn't The Favorite a period piece comedy with three women who share the screen? Why people think that will go far baffles me. They skipped Stone for Billie Jean King so they could skip her again for best actress. I also think Ethan Hawke is a long shot.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJF

Kidman is getting in for Destroyer. She's working the circuit like the pro she is. They just screened the movie in London today for critics and BAFTA voters. Movie got a mostly positive reception, and Kidman got the same level of raves she got in the North American festivals.

Also not sure Destroyer is the hard sell some people are making it out to be. All the screenings sold out at the London Film Festival within an hour of tickets going on sale. Maybe there is an unspoken, pent up demand for a gritty female led noir. Whatever the case may be, Annapurna needs to start actually marketing this film. The reason Kidman's "buzz" seems lighter at the moment compared to some of the other actresses currently out front, is because there isn't even a trailer to get people hyped up about. People are visual creatures, and it's all just word of mouth right now. When (or if) the marketing kicks in for Kidman and Destroyer, I expect her to be competing as a frontrunner for the Oscar win.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterLeo

Jones
So she'll never get over the Oscar curse.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterDg

Kidman may or maynot fill thr last spot, but destroyer is getting in for makeup and may actually win.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterRizz

Makeup Oscar seemed decided as soon as that Vice trailer debuted

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJeremy

God, anything but Eastwood. The Mule is an EXTREME Valerie Cherish-style "I don't need to see that" for me that not even my utter devotion to Dianne Wiest will compel me to watch. No thank you please. And also I think Gosling is getting in. Otherwise I think the charts are looking right.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJes V.

First Reformed is the film of the decade. I am counting on critics to do what they have to do. Go, Hawke

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered Commentercal roth

Dear precursors,

Kidman is a double nominee
Close wins her category

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

I keep hearing Colman wants to go Lead so I'm going to go with that.

Actor: Cooper, Mortensen, Eastwood, Bale, Dafoe
Actress: Gaga, Colman, Ronan, Close, Davis
S. Actor: Ali, Elliott, Rockwell, Chalamet, Jordan
S. Actress: Adams, Robbie, King, Foy, Weisz

Weird things I could see happening: Gosling gets snubbed, Foy gets nominated. McCarthy gets snubbed, Grant gets nominated. Both would seem kinda unfair, no?

Totally unfair: Portman campaigning as Supporting for Vox Lux. That's a ridiculous assertion.

Leo- I'm not so sure about Kidman. Lots of people seeing the film at LFF suggests buzz. It doesn't mean that people are enjoying the film. I saw it and found it very 'meh,' as did a lot of people I spoke with. It's also coming out so, so late.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterEvan

Yeah, Hawke looks pretty strong actually. He got nominated for TRAINING DAY out of seemingly nowhere, they didn't need to nominate him for BOYHOOD, and just look at the history of Damien Bachir, Javier Bardem (BIUTIFUL) and Tommy lee Jones style nominations.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn Dunks

Not to be dramatic, but if Sam Elliott isn't nominated for A Star is Born (alongside Gaga and Cooper), I will burn down the Dolby Theatre.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterArlo

having Hawke in your predicted 5 is like having Mary-Elizabeth Winstead (All About Nina) or Joaquin Phoenix (You were never really here). A lovely thought and it could conceivably happen for them with massive critics pushes but its pretty darn unlikely. Third prediction tier at the very best.

October 14, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterhuh

Since we’re still in the fun part of this:

Actress: Close, Davis, Colman, Jones, Weisz (Disobedience)
Actor: Mortensen, Ali, Eastwood, Dafoe, Hawke
S. Actress: King, Debicki, Yeoh, McAdams (Disobedience), Garner (Love, Simon)
S. Actor: Elliot, Jordan, Hugh Grant, Hornsby (The Hate U Give), Forster/ Nivola

October 15, 2018 | Unregistered Commenteradri

I’m so happy Forster finally has a performance again that’s getting Oscar buzz.

October 15, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterGeorge P.

I think Ethan Hawke could sweep the critics' awards.

October 15, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMichael R

Eastwood will miss this year. I think Malek and Hawke will fight for the last spot:

Bale, Cooper, Mortensen, Gosling, Malek/ Hawke

October 15, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterManuel

I think that The Hate U Give actors should be at least in the Top 20. Surely they're ahead of some of these stragglers. Right?

October 15, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMorgan (the 1st)

Huh -- now you're the one that's stretching ;) there is a big difference between films that don't crack even $100,000 at the box office and films that crack $3 million in terms of having seeped into the public consciousness. FIRST REFORMED was talked up a lot when it came out and the raves for Ethan Hawke felt passionate and non-Oscar obsessed (which, to me, are much more genuine 'passion' element if someone gets that kind of reviews well before 'the season'). Plus he's well liked in Hollywood.

It's only a long shot if he doesn't campaign. we'll see.

October 15, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterNATHANIEL R

Metink, Fox will campaign Colman under supp in a smart strategic move.

At this juncture, I tink (based on films tt were alr seen n reviewed)
Actress: Close, Gaga, McCarthy, Stone n Davis
Actor: Cooper, Mortensen, Redford, Dafoe n Gosling
Supp Actress: Colman, King, Foy, Weisz n Kidman
Supp Actor: Elliot, Ali, Chalamet, Grant n Jordan.

Of cos all these will change once Vice, Mary Queen of Scots, n Mary Poppins Returns r seen n reviewed.

October 15, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterClaran

Genuine question, not shade: where is the roaring buzz for EASTWOOD coming from? I haven't read anything so I'm just curious.

October 15, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAdam

I so hope Clint doesn't get nominated. After his disgraceful 'empty chair' speech at the 2012 RNC and his continued support for the white supremacist trump, he will tarnish the Oscars if he is nominated. Sorry - I don't care if he is the best performance. Politics has influenced oscars in the past so it should not be a problem this year.

October 15, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterBette Streep

1. Clint Eastwood. The mule. 2. Ryan gosling. 3. Ethan Hawke. 4. Viggo Mortensen. 5. Bale.
Clint Eastwood will win the Oscar for the best actor. He deserves it.

October 15, 2018 | Unregistered Commentered

Clint Eastwood will win the Oscar for the best actor. He deserves it. I completely agree.

October 15, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterjohn

Clint Eastwood deserves to win the Oscar for the best actor this year.

October 15, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterpatrick

1. Clint Eastwood. The Mule.

October 15, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterryan

1. Clint Eastwood deserves to win the Oscar for the best actor.

October 15, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

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