Oscar Volley: "Best Supporting Actress" is a fun, fantastically chaotic Free-For-All!
Thursday, March 5, 2026 at 4:00PM The Oscar Volleys continue. NICK TAYLOR and ERIC BLUME discuss the ever volatile race for the Best Supporting Actress Oscar.
Amy Madigan in WEAPONS | © Warner Bros.
NICK: Hello Eric! I’m writing you the day after the Actor Awards announced their winners. Amy Madigan took their Supporting Actress prize for her pristine turn in Weapons, while Wunmi Mosaku can add Sinners’ Best Ensemble award to her shelf. It’s a three-way race between them and Teyana Taylor’s commanding turn in One Battle After Another, and I for one couldn’t be happier. Hell, Inga Ibsdottir Lilleass and Elle Fanning are better also-rans than most of the past decade’s undisputed champions.
After several years in a row of middling lineups, this is the best Supporting Actress field since 2020, maybe even 2016. There aren’t even any leads (or categorically ambiguous) to dampen our fun. In a year with plenty of outside contenders and tantalizing non-starters, all five women earned their nominations fair and square, without feeling preordained. I’m still debating if Taylor or Madigan will go all the way, and while I ponder the fate of all things, let me ask you: How do you feel about this category, Eric? Where do you think the winds are blowing?
ERIC: Nick, I agree wholeheartedly that this is the best field we've had in many years, not a lame performance in the bunch! Which is why I'm personally a bit dismayed that the two performances I feel are the strongest (Sentimental Value's Inga and Elle) are the two that seem out of the running for a win...
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning in SENTIMENTAL VALUE | © Neon
What I think is truly awesome, though, is that the winds aren't blowing. Or better yet...it's a meltemi! I have spent the past few weeks in perpetual eyeroll watching "Oscar pundits" very confidently predict a brand new winner every week (or day) based on whoever won the award immediately prior. It's been a bit hilarious. I think the truth is that this year...in three(!) of the four acting categories...all bets are off. The stats don't matter, the passion is dispersed all over the place, and nobody knows shit. And how thrilling is that! We beg every year for it not to be boring, and this year, it certainly isn't. That's why this is so fun to discuss with you...nothing anybody out there says contains valid insight.
The Sinners maniacs were convinced Wunmi would win SAG after she won BAFTA ("she's now locked...all the way to Oscar" were the cries on Saturday... only to be undone 24 hours later). Now it's "Amy is the frontrunner". It's hilarious. I'm wondering how we can take a more measured, less reactive, approach? Do you sense a wind under your wings?
NICK: Well for one, I do think a measured, less reactive approach could still point to Mosaku winning. Let’s not allow obnoxious stans, haters, and punk trash to cloud our judgment. Our own opinions can do that well enough!
Wunmi Mosaku in SINNERS | © Warner Bros.
From the minute she won the Gotham Award (a very surprising result from a nomination I wasn’t expecting) she’s been consistently outperforming expectations. The BAFTA’s still a major get, and Sinners has won enough ensemble prizes and individual acting awards to make me think at least one of its actors will win an Oscar. Four out of five Supporting Actress nominees having a corresponding Best Picture nomination to bolster their odds, so who knows if there’s a real advantage to it, but having showcased role in the most Oscar-nominated film ever certainly doesn’t hurt her chances for winning.
It also helps that Mosaku is giving a pretty good performance in Sinners! Annie’s first scene with Smoke is a doozy of shifting tones the actress carries off fabulously, and she’s good at imbuing her expositions on vampires with real stakes. The film loses track of the character in the last third, limiting Mosaku’s overall impact, but her watchfulness from the sidelines holds up better than many of Sinners’ other performances.
So, there’s my defense of Mosaku as our Best Supporting Actress winner. Does this ring true to you?
ERIC: Nick, all of your words are indeed sound! I can't disagree with any of them, but the reason I can't quite get onboard is exactly because of six of those words "is giving a pretty good performance". That's exactly how I would describe the performance: pretty good. She's fifth good in my opinion, and I don't think I'm alone with voters who would really hesitate to name that performance the year's best in that category. I agree with all your takes (real stakes, shifting tone, and beyond that just basic power and presence as an actor). But she really has so little to do in the movie, and to your point, she gets completely lost as the movie continues. I think the BAFTA win came from being on her home turf, having won a BAFTA before and obviously being well-liked with that voting body. I just can't wrap my head around enough people saying, "this is the year's best." But lord knows I am a terrible prognosticator.
Teyana Taylor in ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | © Warner Bros.
Let's talk about Teyana Taylor for a minute. Do you view her in "second place" behind Mosaku in your estimation? I cannot really see her winning, to be honest, despite giving a truly indelible performance... she really lends to the "fire" energy to blast the tone of OBAA off the launchpad, and you miss her after she disappears in act one. I do fear that she will suffer from the much-discussed "angry woman character" lens that people seem to impose on difficult roles. Even though voters like "villain" roles, they prefer those villains to be men, and men who go big (see Sean Penn in the same film), and even someone like a Kathy Bates in Misery was a go-big, go-into-the-comic spin. Taylor makes no apologies for the character (part of the beauty of her acting in it), but will enough viewers appreciate that? She seems to have lost steam? I guess if OBAA wins Picture (which I feel it definitely will), voters love to also give BP winners a correlative acting Oscar, and it's her or Sean?
Before we move onto Amy, what are your thoughts on the Teyana of it all?
NICK: The question of likability always feels so strange to consider. Perfidia’s a difficult character who, as you say, is all the more compelling because of Taylor’s careful modulations of fortitude, vulnerability, and cool. Compare her to Amy Madigan and Sean Penn, who both won at (the awards body formerly known as) SAG for their much more comedic villain roles, and I wonder how much the issue you’re describing also comes from Perfidia escaping into the night, her ambiguities unresolved once she escapes to Mexico. Even the scattered discussions of her legacy can’t pin down who she was, always slapping her with labels far less complicated than the woman Taylor boldly presents.
So maybe the role is challenging enough for the less discerning eye to recognize her brilliance. For my money, she’d be the best winner this category’s had in a long time. The politically incendiary nature of the role, the intelligence, the coordination with a love interest who really needs their hand held - she’s giving Vanessa Redgrave’s category-best victory in Julia, except proudly erotic. The sexuality is another factor that can either work for or against an artist, but I’d hope the performance is able to speak for itself.
Teyana Taylor in ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | © Warner Bros.
It is surprising she hasn’t won any televised awards since the Globes. Still, they’re the awards body whose nominees lined up most with Oscar’s ballot. I think it’s very possible the Academy will match their Lead - Drama and Supporting picks. But Amy Madigan’s such a tempting possibility - indeed, depending on who you ask she’s the frontrunner. And now I ask you Eric - is she the frontrunner?
ERIC: Stop making me fall in love with you. Again, I agree that Taylor does everything she needs to do, joltingly so, and I also wanna vom about the question of character likability. Most of the staff and readers of The Film Experience probably love an "unlikable" character and don't even think in those terms...but I do wonder about the typical voter. They do lean toward sympathetic roles and they are on the whole vote sympathetically.
Who is the frontrunner, you ask? I'm going to buck the trend of every other yahoo who writes about the Oscars and just say what all of us should be saying: WHO THE FUCK KNOWS? We really do not know the frontrunner in three of the four acting races this year. It's all just a hunch, and a pretty even argument (even based on dreaded stats) can be made for several contenders in each race.
I think this year we should be honest and say it pretty much comes down to a hunch. My hunch is that it will be Amy Madigan at the end of the day. I know a lot of people argue against her as she's the only nominee from her film, but it's not like she's up for a tiny movie that ultimately few people saw (like Rose Byrne). Weapons made over $150 million dollars IN THE THEATER and I think most people agree that it's very well-done studio genre picture (my guess is it safely landed somewhere in slot 11-15 in the Best Picture race with votes). If it had nabbed the F1 slot, would more people be confident predicting her?
Amy Madigan in WEAPONS | © Warner Bros.
I think her role ilies safely in that over-the-top villain scale we've been talking about. I think she has affection for a 40 year career of solid character work. I think she's viewed as a bit of a cool, bad-girl from the Elia Kazan thing yet she's warm and kind and generous on all our press outings. She's grateful for the role and the work. And for what it's worth, she really does give a delicious performance... I can't imagine anyone getting more out of that role from the page. And in my mind, she is so in lockstep with Cregger's very specific tonal blend of comedy and horror that she kind of makes the whole movie work. What she gives us in her 14 minutes is so juicy, fun, and scary that I couldn't stop giggling at her Grand Guignol demise: it's a horrifying moment made deliriously comic thanks to her work in combo with Cregger's support of her work.
Before we wrap up, I'd love to do what the boys did on the Supporting Actor write-up. What is your personal preferred ranking of the nominees? For me, it's Ibsdottir Lilleeas > Elle Fanning > Amy Madigan > Teyana Taylor > Wunmi Moasku. With two caveats: one, I like all five performances! And two, it makes me sad that we spent no time discussing the work of the Sentimental Value actresses this entire article, because I really think are spectacularly good.
You? And your final prediction to win is Mosaku?
NICK: My preferred ranking is: Taylor > Madigan > Fanning, Lilleass > Mosaku, with the caveat that all of them would be deserving winners. I’m just gonna co-sign your “who the fuck knows!!” statement, while tentatively pitching Madigan as the winner. Your Sentimental Value divas do a lot to imbue credibility and nuance in roles I suspect the script could have done a little more with - the sister’s journey did not always feel well-integrated into the story, and I think a more severe cut of this film could make Rachel Kemp a largely offscreen intrusion. But then Lilleass is so transparent and attentive, and Fanning nails the unbelievably tricky task of playing a good, slightly green actress who’s fundamentally miscast without ever playing down to her. They’re valuable assets, and they fill out Sentimental Value quite beautifully.
Regina Hall in ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | © Warner Bros.
Also, before we go we have to share our unnominated faves! I think One Battle After Another could’ve pulled double-duty here with Regina Hall’s watchful, diamond-hard performance. She’s instantly credible as a trained revolutionary, and she makes every gaze convey untold weight without telling us what Deandra is gleaning from these moments. Kirsten Dunst gives my favorite-ever performance of hers in Roofman, finding so many shades to this sweet, normal gal looking for love, and making her choices in the last half hour really matter.
Sisterhood boasts a great French ensemble of young people papering over a script I don’t love, none better than Medina Diarra’s firecracker debut turn, making her moments of total withdrawal as potent as her extroverted attitudes. Indie Spirit nominee Haipeng Xu haunts Blue Sun Palace even more than Taylor haunts her film, so genuine in her exuberance while underplaying her character’s dubious decisions so smoothly you wonder how much this person had going on before she leaves. Anne Marit Jacobson gives my very favorite performance in Dreams, understanding her granddaughter’s writings so instinctually while slowly opening up to her own harbored desires.
Taylor, Madigan, and those five women are the closest to my supporting ballot, with extra special love to Gwyneth Paltrow in Marty Supreme, Nguyen Thi Nga in Viet & Nam, Nina Meurisse in Souleymane’s Story, Celia Weston in A Little Prayer, Oona Chaplin, so many women. A truly fabulous year for this category! What about you Eric? Who are you sending your bouquets to this year?
ERIC: Nick, love hearing your personal picks! And I'm mortified that I have not seen any of the films you mention that feature Diarra, Xu, and Jacobson... so this gives me some fun homework! Thanks for the recommendations.
Kirsten Dunst in ROOFMAN | © Paramount Pictures
As for Hall and Dunst, I agree wholeheartedly that Dunst should easily have been nominated in this category. She's fantastically good and finds so much to imbue her character with specificity. Love all of your word choices for Regina Hall, but I must say I found it all more "solid" than magnificent, and I thought the calls for a nomination for her tiny (but lovely) contribution were a bit much. But I also do think it's a wonderfully suggestive performance, and she's always a joy to watch.
This year I was a big fan of Son-je Yin's brittle and funny spin on Lady Macbeth in No Other Choice. She leaves room for a lot of purposeful ambiguity about her character. And I thought Zooey Deutsch was glorious as Jean Seberg in Nouvelle Vague: she effortlessly nailed the movie-star boredom and vanity, the hilarious American-speaking-French sound and music, and that touch of melancholic sadness that eventually led to... well, you know. To me, there was a lot of there there with her acting in a movie that is not concerned with any character development. Miriam Afshari pops vividly throughout It Was Just an Accident, and I thought JLo was great fun in Kiss of the Spider Woman (her entire performance didn't fully come together, but her genuine "bad acting" style worked perfectly for the fake movie scenes, and she's game throughout). Finally, I loved what Sissy Spacek did with her handful of scenes in Die My Love. She and Jennifer Lawrence seemed to connect at some deep level, yet Spacek also was able to fully show her character's frustration with her daughter-in-law, as well as the dread of a questionable life ahead.
So much terrific actressing in this category. I love that we're agreed that the five performances are all worthy of a nomination. Think of how happy the six homosexuals doing the Supporting Actress Smackdown will be assessing this 20 years from now!
Your personal pick is Teyana Taylor, but you're projecting Amy Madigan for funsies? My personal favorite is Inga Ibsdottir Lilleeas, but I'm also, for funsies, going with Madigan. Any final thoughts?
NICK: You’ve got a good handful of suggestions yourself, and you’re right with my final predictions. No more thoughts, except thanks for putting all this together, and for being a good conversation partner!
Wunmi Mosaku in SINNERS | © Warner Bros.
Previous Oscar Volleys:
- BEST DIRECTOR, with Ben Miller and Nathaniel R
- BEST ACTOR, with Cláudio Alves and Eurocheese
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, with Nathaniel R and Cláudio Alves
- BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY, with Lynn Lee and Ben Miller
- BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY, with Eurocheese and Abe Friedtanzer
- BEST CASTING, with Nathaniel R and Abe Friedtanzer
- BEST EDITING, with Lynn Lee and Eurocheese
- BEST COSTUME DESIGN, with Cláudio Alves and Nick Taylor
- BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN with Eric Blume and Ben Miller
- BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM with Eric Blume and Nathaniel R



Reader Comments (1)
I wrote a few months back about how I would've preferred a version of Weapons that never revealed what happened to the children, which seems more ominous and more keeping with the setup and imagery of the film. But, if they are going to provide an answer, you need a performance as compelling as Madigan's. The film would really not work at all without her nailing it, which I don't think you can say about the other nominated performances here. And for that reason I think voters will ultimately choose her.
Horror performances that border on comedy are hard to pull off but can absolutely work in the genre. Kathy Bates, mentioned above, or Piper Laurie in Carrie are great examples. Or, if you consider the movie horror, Baby Jane Hudson, which Madigan has explicitly mentioned as an inspiration.