Nathaniel R
In the absence of a Best Picture frontrunner, something I think we all can agree on at this particular juncture in time, does that mean anything could happen with Best Picture nominations? OR does that mean the Best Picture competition is fairly settled but that the films (i.e. campaigns) have yet to sort out who is the most formidable?
I'd argue, perhaps foolishly, that it's the latter. I see a fairly clear situation ahead where these seven films (and maybe only these seven) are going to be nominated. A winner will emerge but none have yet made a clear case that they're "the one".
Call Me By Your Name | Darkest Hour | Dunkirk
Get Out | Mudbound | The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Since Academy rules allow for 5-10 nominees in a given year in the top category and since we've usually seen the final size of the list land at 8 or 9 that leaves us with only one or two super competitive slots. With rumors (take 'em or leave 'em since it's only hearsay) starting to swirl that the four big remaining unseen films (Phantom Thread, Greatest Showman, The Post, All the Money in the World) aren't all that, perhaps we know the field fully? Methinks The Florida Project (a little picture that could), I Tonya (*shudder* but easy to picture for counterprogramming vote which also helped it at serious festivals) and Last Flag Flying (meh but easy to picture as the #1 choice for the manly side of Oscar voting) are next in line should there be enough room for them. It's tough to say but there are several films with pockets of support that are in play for one of those coveted spots if the precursors and media are especially kind to them in the next month or two -- yes, even Wonder Woman.
P.S. Comedy at the Globes?
The comedy category is as wide as the Grand Canyon IF a number of the 'could go either way' films choose drama instead. Three Billboards, rumored to be choosing drama for example, is basically a tragicomedy so you can call it either safely! Films that could theoretically be up for COMEDY OR MUSICAL at the Globes (should they choose to campaign this way) are...
Baby Driver | Battle of the Sexes | Beauty & The Beast
The Big Sick | Disaster Artist | Downsizing
Get Out ??? | Girls Trip | Greatest Showman
Guardians of Galaxy vol 2 | I Tonya | Lady Bird
Last Flag Flying ??? | Victoria and Abdul
And theoretically that high profile boost could really help them. As would a Producers Guild or SAG shoutout. How do you think this will all pan out?
UPDATED OSCAR CHARTS ARE HERE and GURUS OF GOLD ALSO UPDATED
Thursday, October 26, 2017 at 1:00PM 
