Oscar Chart Updates: Picture, Director, Screenplay, and more...

Jane Campion's new film Power of the Dog has been named the Centerpiece for the New York Film Festival. Perhaps it's wishful thinking (we've loved Campion forever) but we're betting big on it for the Oscar race. The film is set in 1920s rural Montana and stars Benedict Cumberbatch and Jesse Plemons as brothers who are at odds. The rift between them grows wider once the younger brother brings a new wife (Kirsten Dunst) home. The novel by Thomas Savage has been compared to works like East of Eden and Brokeback Mountain and if the film can live up to either of those classics' screen adaptations it will be something special.

We've been working hard on the first Oscar charts of the year.  The four acting categories and international film have yet to be posted, but the rest of the charts are now up...

• PICTURE - Will streamers like Netflix or Amazon prevail or will more traditional distributors like MGM/UA, Searchlight, Focus, A24, and SPC rise up? So many films sound exciting but we won't know which deliver on their promise until later in the year.  
• DIRECTOR - Jane Campion could become the first woman ever nominated twice in Best Director
• SCREENPLAYS  - Numerous brilliant writers have new films coming but however will they choose between Asghar Farhadi, Joel Coen, Tony Kushner, Pedro Almodóvar, Mike Mills, and Paul Thomas Anderson?
• VISUAL CATEGORIES - There's (presumably) eye candy aplenty in Dune, Last Night in Soho, House of Gucci, and Nightmare Alley
• SOUND CATEGORIES - Can it finally be Nicholas Britell's year or will he split his support with three movies (Carmen, Don't Look Up, Cruella)?
• ANIMATED FEATURE - Will Disney's musical Encanto be the frontrunner? Will Flee and Belle be the more adventurous citations?
• PREDICTION INDEX - the overview snapshot

93rd Academy Awards: A strong Adapted Screenplay race

by Eric Blume

We have our strongest list of contenders for the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar that we’ve had in years…I’d argue one of the strongest ever.  These five films represent vastly different stories and emphasize different screenwriting strengths, and involve an array of intelligent decisions from the writers in delivering the best cinematic experience possible based on their source material...

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Final Oscar Nom Predix Pt 1: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Visuals, Sound

As many have remarked, the 2020... excuse us 2020 plus the first two months of 2021 film year has been unpredictable and chaotic in film awards. The pandemic affected the race in virtually every way (a different eligibility period, a different set of films with many delaying their arrival a full year, all virtual campaigning and no red carpets, etcetera). We could have done without the pandemic of course but we love a messy Oscar race. It makes punditry very difficult but also way more fun. And it's also more generous to artists because messiness spreads the wealth around and the wealth should always be spread. There is so little point in 35+ awards bodies if they're all in lockstep agreement. 

Just about the only thing that's been "consensus" from the first few moments of the season to the very last (to date) via the BAFTA nominations is that (generally speaking) everyone is moved by Minari, laughs along with Maria Bakalova in Borat, and is deeply impressed with Nomadland  but especially its trailblazing writer/director/editor/producer Chloe Zhao. New consensuses (concensi?) began to emerge late in precursor season around one additional thing: Daniel Kaluuya for Best Supporting Actor in Judas and the Black Messiah in which he has the leading role of the titular Black Messiah...

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WGA Nominations -- Good news for late breaking streaming titles

by Nathaniel R

The White Tiger is a surprise nominee at the WGA

The Writers Guild of America will have their awards ceremony on March 21st, 2021 but today they announced their nominations.  It's always a bit tricky to look at this in the context of the Oscars since the eligibility rules are different. Though the WGA also extended their eligibilty period to match with Oscar (as you'll see given a couple of their nominees), several key films each year are not eligible. You can't be nominated for a WGA unleses you're already a member of their guild; in other words at the WGA you'd never get a situation like, say, you had with Parasite winning the SAG Award. Furthermore animated films are not eligible for this prize but are obviously eligible at the Oscars; Shrek was nominated and Pixar has had 7 nominees: Toy Story, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille, WALL•E, Up, and Toy Story 3)

The nominees and Oscar related commentary is after the jump...

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Let's talk about Oscar's screenplay races

by Nathaniel R

"Mank" is about the writing of a legendary screenplay. That should do the trick.

Are there locks in the Screenplay categories? At the moment both races feel almost settled (aside from hugely competitive fifth slots) though the WGA nominations arrive on February 16th which could theoretically disrupt the consensus punditry.

ORIGINAL
In the original race Mank, Minari, Promising Young Woman, and Trial of the Chicago 7 all feel like certainties but are they? That's too many locks prior to the WGA nominations and leaves only one spot open. That hypothetical fifth spot battle has a lot of strong fighters...

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