Final Oscar Nom Predix Pt 1: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Visuals, Sound

As many have remarked, the 2020... excuse us 2020 plus the first two months of 2021 film year has been unpredictable and chaotic in film awards. The pandemic affected the race in virtually every way (a different eligibility period, a different set of films with many delaying their arrival a full year, all virtual campaigning and no red carpets, etcetera). We could have done without the pandemic of course but we love a messy Oscar race. It makes punditry very difficult but also way more fun. And it's also more generous to artists because messiness spreads the wealth around and the wealth should always be spread. There is so little point in 35+ awards bodies if they're all in lockstep agreement. 

Just about the only thing that's been "consensus" from the first few moments of the season to the very last (to date) via the BAFTA nominations is that (generally speaking) everyone is moved by Minari, laughs along with Maria Bakalova in Borat, and is deeply impressed with Nomadland  but especially its trailblazing writer/director/editor/producer Chloe Zhao. New consensuses (concensi?) began to emerge late in precursor season around one additional thing: Daniel Kaluuya for Best Supporting Actor in Judas and the Black Messiah in which he has the leading role of the titular Black Messiah...

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WGA Nominations -- Good news for late breaking streaming titles

by Nathaniel R

The White Tiger is a surprise nominee at the WGA

The Writers Guild of America will have their awards ceremony on March 21st, 2021 but today they announced their nominations.  It's always a bit tricky to look at this in the context of the Oscars since the eligibility rules are different. Though the WGA also extended their eligibilty period to match with Oscar (as you'll see given a couple of their nominees), several key films each year are not eligible. You can't be nominated for a WGA unleses you're already a member of their guild; in other words at the WGA you'd never get a situation like, say, you had with Parasite winning the SAG Award. Furthermore animated films are not eligible for this prize but are obviously eligible at the Oscars; Shrek was nominated and Pixar has had 7 nominees: Toy Story, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille, WALL•E, Up, and Toy Story 3)

The nominees and Oscar related commentary is after the jump...

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Let's talk about Oscar's screenplay races

by Nathaniel R

"Mank" is about the writing of a legendary screenplay. That should do the trick.

Are there locks in the Screenplay categories? At the moment both races feel almost settled (aside from hugely competitive fifth slots) though the WGA nominations arrive on February 16th which could theoretically disrupt the consensus punditry.

ORIGINAL
In the original race Mank, Minari, Promising Young Woman, and Trial of the Chicago 7 all feel like certainties but are they? That's too many locks prior to the WGA nominations and leaves only one spot open. That hypothetical fifth spot battle has a lot of strong fighters...

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The New Classics: Lincoln

By Michael Cusumano 

Abraham Lincoln abilities as a writer probably would have earned him a place in history even without his accomplishments as a statesman. He is surely the best writer that has ever occupied the Oval Office. Capable of expressing complex ideas with remarkable economy, he had a deft hand with allusions and was responsible for many evocative turns of phrase that resonate far outside the political context of their time, “The better angels of our nature” or “The dogmas of the quiet past”.  Hell, simply opting for “Four score and seven” over “eighty-seven” reveals a writer’s ear for the musical potential of language.

It's a fitting tribute then, that the most prominent film about the sixteenth president, Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln, with a screenplay by Pulitzer prize winning playwright Tony Kushner, exudes that same love of language. There’s scarcely a scene without some memorable linguistic spin. There's much to admire in Spielberg’s film from the beautifully worn production design to the momentous performances, but the real reason I’ve returned to it repeatedly since 2012 is simply because the characters are such fun to listen to. All of the film’s dramatic peaks involve the spectacle of verbal fireworks, particularly my favorite scene, where Tommy Lee Jones blasts his way out of a political trap firing off ornately worded insults like cannonballs... 

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April Foolish Predix Pt 3: Directors and Screenplays

The even more foolish (in light of the current pandemic) annual tradition of "April Foolish Predictions" continues. As ever we're trying to suss out the Oscar race a year in advance. Well, 10 months in advance if you're getting nitpicky. We've previously covered Animated Features, Visual Categories, Music and Sound. Here's the index of predictions.

SCREENPLAYS
Depending on what happens with the calendar in terms of movie theaters reopening and distributor confidence Original Screenplay will be slimmer than usual. But how slim...?

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