Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

The 92nd annual Academy Awards are almost upon us. They're just 29 days away at this writing. We'll have the official Oscar charts back up for you as soon as is humanly possible once the potentially exciting event has occurred on Monday (they're coming down now to prep for Monday's unfurling). But until then, it's time to make final predictions.

BEST PICTURE

The sure things: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, The Irishman, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, 1917. That's six titles that we can't imagine missing on Monday morning given their success to date in precursor awards and with critics and the public. The extremely probable: Marriage Story. The only reason we've begun to worry is that there's been virtually no traction for Noah Baumbach in Best Director which suggests that people have reduced the movie to "an actor's showcase"... but then where was the SAG Outstanding Cast nomination? It's likely in but if there's a shock omission Monday morning...

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Who'll be this years' surprise snub?

by Cláudio Alves

Nathaniel's final predictions will be up tomorrow morning but until then, let's talk potential snubs. Oscar nomination morning usually holds a few surprises. Sometimes, everything goes according to plan and the performers singled out by the precursors appear in their entirety but that's a rare event. We're thankful for that since the opposite would be dreadfully boring. Usually, there's one big snub like Timothée Chalamet for Beautiful Boy, Amy Adams for Arrival, Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation, Jennifer Anniston for Cake or Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips. At the last minute, they all failed to secure an expected nod.

Of this year's crop of contenders, 12 have conquered nods from the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, SAGs, and Critics Choice Awards. Many pundits say DiCaprio is the most vulnerable and we should never be sure about Hanks given his recent Oscar history. Still, the rest of them seem solid if not altogether locked. Unless, of course, Margot Robbie manages to upset everyone and get in for the Tarantino flick instead of Bombshell. You can never know for sure, that's the eternal truth about prognosticating. 

All that said, here are those 12 contenders...

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Can a Good Speech Save An Oscar Campaign?

by Cláudio Alves

Remember when Meryl Streep received the Cecil B. DeMille Award at the 2017 Golden Globes? Her speech was one for the ages, full of good humor, pathos and a riveting call to arms. So titanic was this acceptance speech that, to this day, I believe that it's what secured a Best Actress Oscar nomination for Florence Foster Jenkins. The performance did get a lot of precursor love, but growing Streep fatigue and a stacked race seemed like indicators of an incoming snub. Then, the Golden Globes happened, right at the end of Oscar voting, and it all changed.

Her speech saved her campaign, even though that wasn't the intention of the gesture, and turned her into a lock many didn't see coming until nomination morning arrived. This year, Tom Hanks might follow in Streep's steps…

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Chart Updates - All Acting Categories

Is it us or are the four of the acting races murkier than they usually would be during the week of Oscar voting? We chalk this up to a bit less precursor uniformity between Critics Choice, Globes, SAG nods, and the regional critical consensus. On the other hand that regional critical consensus has been very pronounced with a clear lineup of winners that go like so: Parasite/Bong Joon Ho / Nyongo / Driver / Dern / Pitt. But what we're dealing with right now is the nomination game which is far more complex than "who wins".

BEST ACTRESS - Six women are still very much in the mix and it's quite difficult to guess who will be left out. Passion suggests that Cynthia Erivo or Charlize Theron would be in danger of the "snub" but on the other hand you're not often the snubbee if you're the one doing the biographical role... especially if there's mimicry. For now we've opted to have Saoirse Ronan be the odd woman out but that doesn't feel right either given the very current groundswell of love for that picture. At any rate we think it's between the six listed on the chart with Alfre Woodard (Clemency) and Awkwafina (The Farewell) staring to look like impossible dreams in this final decision week...

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The precursors don't always matter

by Cláudio Alves

In these merry times of winter holidays and gift-giving, there's no better present than the gift of hope. For Oscar obsessives, this can come in many forms. One of them can be the reminder that the precursors aren't everything when it comes to the race for Hollywood's most coveted little golden man.

Even if your favorite performance of the year hasn't been getting any sort of awards love, that doesn't mean its Oscar chances are dead and buried. Remember the case of Marcia Gay Harden, a surprise nominee that became a surprise victor when she conquered the Academy Award for Pollock. What a thrill.

She's the patron saint of Oscar surprises. In honor of her, here's a list of those lucky actors who scored an Oscar nomination despite having no nod whatsoever from the Globes, the SAGs, the Critics Choice Awards, or the BAFTAs...

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