Final Oscar Nom Predix Pt 2: Acting, International, Docs, Shorts, etc...

Previously: Best Picture and Visuals

We really wish we'd started these final predictions earlier but there is no end to the overthinking one can do -- is there? -- when races are tight.  So perhaps it's for the best that we just have to do this and commit. For instance, we've already changed one prediction in both Cinematography (out: Chicago 7, in: Judas) & Sound (out: Tenet, in: Nomadland) to riskier options since last night -- which is probably foolish  but we're living recklessly! Okay, on to complete the final predictions (index of all of them here) with discussions of the acting categories, short categories, documentary, animated, and international features after the jump...

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The Most Confusing Acting Categories of the Past

by Eurocheese

NINE women have received mainstream precursor support this year for Best Supporting Actress. Somethings gotta give.

If anyone you know is telling you they know exactly what will happen when the nominees for Supporting Actress are announced on Monday, you should also ask them for a set of winning lottery numbers. You want to know how many actresses have scored the complete quartet of Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice and BAFTA nominations in Supporting this season? That would be zero. Maria Bakalova showed up at all four awards for a raunchy comedy, arguably the least Oscary of all genres, but even she landed in lead at the Globes. I honestly have no idea who’s getting in or who’s winning the category… and I love the confusion.

For everyone trying to put together their predictions for nomination morning, let’s look at how some other bizarre precursors shook out, choosing one year to represent each of the four categories. Maybe this will give us a clue as to the current Best Supporting Actress race...

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7 time nominated actresses

It's 7 days until Oscar nominations are announced and it's also International Women's Day so let's talk actresses. (Like we need an excuse, but just go with it). 7 women have been Oscar nominated exactly 7 times for their acting ... and these were their 7th (and final to date) nominations:

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Minari: A tale of two (or more) grandmas

By Lynn Lee 

This is a story about grandmothers.

Having finally seen Minari, I’d originally intended to write about its place in the evolution of Asian American film over the last 20 years.  Or about Steven Yeun becoming the new face of Asian American masculinity in Hollywood.  But I couldn’t stop thinking about the Korean grandmother, Soon-ja, played by Youn Yuh-jung, because she reminded me so much of my own late grandmother.  Youn’s vibrant, hugely endearing performance—still Minari’s best shot at an Oscar acting nomination—and the cultural specificity of her character struck a chord of recognition that reverberated right to and through my core...

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Oscar race: Supporting Actress Chaos & Supporting Actor Lock-up

by Nathaniel R

don't despair ladies, you're the only two locks in "Best Supporting Actress"

We saw a tweet yesterday that implied that the Oscar race for Best Supporting Actress is now between Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) and Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) which felt a bit insane to us. That's a Globe induced fever. Nevertheless the shock of Foster's win for a movie people have barely noticed does maybe tell us that the Supporting Actress competition is more fluid than assumed. So who is leading and who is going to be left out on the 15th when the nominations are announced? The way we see it there are 9 women left standing for various reasons (which is a lot going into voting since it's usually only 6 or 7 by now). Only two of them (Glenn Close and Olivia Colman) feel locked up for honors. Curiously despite the sure-thing feel of Colman's soon to be second nomination, it's unlikely she has ANY shot at a win. Her Oscar win is very recent and The Father isn't quite the contender it should be (qualitatively speaking) given its quiet campaign. But the nomination battle is always different than the battle to win.

Who gets the other three spots?

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