It's time for final Best Picture predictions!

For the next week we'll be sharing final predictions for each Oscar category. We're starting with the big kahuna, Best Picture because it's the most crucial. It's a domino effect essentially since each year shows us that once voters favor your movie, they just favor it whether or not it's particularly worthy from one category to the next. We'll start with the not so obvious (if you ask me) question:

What would be nominated in a five film year?

Past statistics will tell you that that would be the DGA lineup (BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, Roma, A Star is Born, and Vice) because prior to 2010 when the Best Picture category expanded, the DGA lineup was slightly more predictive of Best Picture than of Best Director, as curious as that might seen. But it wasn't infallible, of course. And we don't think those would be the five this year. 

So let's take them in the order of strength after the jump...

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Costume Design Guild Nominations

by Nathaniel R

Paddington 2's great costumes were snubbed by BAFTA last year and the CDG this year. But Lindy Hemming won the Oscar for Topsy Turvy (1999) without either of those nominations so there's still hope.The Costume Design Guild was founded in 1953 with an initial group of 30 members. Today they have an international membership of 700+. They've been giving out awards since 1999 but the categories weren't fully as they are know (period/costume/fantasy) until 2005.

Though their tastes do align with Oscar it's difficult to wholly prognosticate from their awards since the Oscar nominees are generally a mix of their Period and Fantasy nominees with an extra title thrown in (plus every once in a while the costume branch within the Academy will surprise with a contemporary nominee). Much more frequently Oscar will just add one film that wasn't honored at all by the CDG! They do it nearly all the time actually (10 out of the last 12 years). The point is a film is not out of the running if it wasn't honored at CDG, especially if it has a previously Oscar nominated costume designer behind it. That's potentially good news for five well regarded costumers who missed the CDG today: Linda Hemming (Paddington 2), Mary Zophres (First Man), Milena Canonero (The Sisters Brothers), Joanna Johnston (Welcome to Marwen), and Colleen Atwood (Fantastic Beasts: Grindelwald). That's not so good news for Caroline Eselin (If Beale Street Could Talk) who missed a CDG nomination today, since Oscar has yet to notice her.

We'll share the stats after the nominations at the bottom of this post so you'll have a clearer picture.  Ready? Let's talk costumes...

 Excellence in Contemporary Film

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Guild Nominations En Masse!

by Nathaniel R

Today is a big day. It's Globe fallout day but also the day when  the guilds start announcing en masse. Today we heard from the writers, the editors, and the art directors guilds to give us more clues as to which films the industry is gaga for. The only films that scored at all three guilds were A Star is Born and Roma, which NOT COINCIDENTALLY feel like the two most likely films to win Best Picture on Oscar night, give or take Black Panther.

The nominations are all after the jump...

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Eight Links Out

• Deadline 10 upcoming films that were given by funding from the British Film Institute... including a new meaty role for Sally Hawkins
• Filmmaker picks the 10 best films directed by women this year from Kenya's Rafiki through the US indie Madeline's Madeline. The biggest grosswer on the list is You Were Never Really Here by Lynne Ramsay...
• TFE <-- which, in case you missed  our year in review of box office hits, is only the 8th biggest grosser among female helmed films this year just behind Leave No Trace and Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• The Muse "Penny Marshall and the Movies That Shaped Me" 
• Gold Derby if Lady Gaga wins two Oscars this February she'll be the fifth woman to accomplish that trick in one night (but first actress).
• Pajiba picks some favourite movie costumes of the year and thankfully doesn't ignore contemporary films
• Electric Literature why recent movies about queer friendships are so revolutionary
• Awards Daily talks to Black Panther's editor Michael Shawver about some of the movie's best scenes and a compliment from Francis Coppola
• /Film you have just one week to watch Pixar's animated short finalist Bao online. It's soooo adorable

Soundtracking: 2018 Grammy Nominees at the Movies!

by Chris Feil

The Oscars aren’t the only big movie music prize on the horizon. Last week we got this year’s Grammy nominees and the Grammy voting committee has clearly been spending a lot of time at the movies this year! Aside from the film categories (more on that in a minute...) soundtracks showed up in major categories in a big way thanks to behemoths Black Panther and A Star is Born.

“All the Stars” from Panther and “Shallow” from Star both made it into the Record and Song of the Year categories, in addition to both getting nominated in the genre performance categories. But the biggest movie moment among the nominees has to be Kendrick Lamar’s nomination in Album of the Year for Black Panther’s soundtrack...

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