Box Office: Without Super Powers, You Are Nothing

The global love of superpowered young men hasn't even begun to decline as the star-less Chronicle, about three teenagers who develop uncanny powers opened at #1 for Superbowl weekend. It almost doubled its production budget on opening weekend. Harry Potter himself Daniel Radcliffe had to settle for second place with The Woman in Black but that's probably because he's no longer the most powerful wizard on earth.

Chronicle is unkind to cars.

BAKERS DOZEN (Estimates)
01 CHRONICLE  $22 new  
02 THE WOMAN IN BLACK  $21 new  
03 THE GREY $9.5 (cum. $34.7)
04 BIG MIRACLE  $8.5 new
05 UNDERWORLD AWAKENING $5.6 (cum. $54.3)
06 ONE FOR THE MONEY $5.2 (cum. $19.6)
07 RED TAILS  $5 ($41.3)
08 THE DESCENDANTS  $4.6  (cum. $65.5)
09 MAN ON A LEDGE $4.5 (cum. $14.7)
10 EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE $3.9 (cum. $26.7)
11 CONTRABAND  $3.4 (cum. $26.7) (cum. $62.1)
12 THE ARTIST $2.5 (cum. $20.5)
13 BEAUTY & THE BEAST 3D  $2.4 rerelease  

Someone's wearing lifts... Janet McTeer is 6'1". Daniel Radcliffe is 5'5"

Talking Points
• It's a good weekend for Janet McTeer, huh? Not only did she finally feel some major industry love again post Tumbleweeds (1999) with her Albert Nobbs Oscar nomination, but she's co-starring in The Woman in Black. What's more Albert Nobbs held up well in limited release, according to IndieWire suggesting it has more life in it yet. Will it expand further now?

• The Descendants may soon surpass Sideways to become Alexander Payne's biggest hit yet. It's just 6 million behind it now.

• A Separation has crossed the 1 million mark which is a big deal these days for a foreign film. Hopefully they'll keep expanding since they've just been adding a tiny number of screens each week. 

• The Artist is slowing down a bit in wide release but it's already tap danced its way clear of being called "lowest grossing Best Picture winner ever" (should it win) since it's a bigger hit than The Hurt Locker. That said anything that wins this year beyond The Help is going to end up in the 10 lowest grossers list. The Atlantic did some tallying and adjusting for inflation a year ago and they claim that these are the lowest grossing Best Pictures ever. All of them are superpower free (unless you count Javier Bardem's "Chigurh" as a supernatural evil force which maybe you can):

1. The Hurt Locker (2009) $15
2. All The Kings Men (1949) $60
3. Hamlet (1948)  $61
4. An American in Paris  (1951) $67
5. Crash (2005)  $67
6. Marty (1955) $70
7. No Country For Old Men (2007) $85
8. lt Happened One Night (1934) $86
9. The Last Emperor (1987) $89
10. The Great Ziegfeld (1936) $95

What did you see this weekend?

Review: "Albert Nobbs"

This review was previously published in my column at Towleroad.

Albert Nobbs is story of a woman living as a man in Ireland in the early 20th century. Albert (Oscar nominated Glenn Close) serves as a waiter at a little upscale hotel. His world is so small that he barely leaves the hotel and hardly ever utters full sentences to anyone but himself. Those private conversations generally involve the counting of shillings. Nobbs' inner life isn't quite as small. The waiter dreams of saving up enough to buy a small tobacco shop and run his own little business. When he meets a painter by the name of Mr. Hubert Page (Oscar nominated Janet McTeer) whose situation is not dissimilar but whose emotional life is obviously richer, his eyes are suddenly opened to new possibilities, including romance... or at least cohabitation.  But dreams aren't easy when a flea in your undergarments can give you away, when your career could be finished with one misstep around a wealthy patron, when a stroke of bad luck could put your employer out of business, or when the woman you set your sights on for companionship (Mia Wasikowska) might not have the purest of motives in returning your affection.

You know what's just as a hard as opening a tobacco shop when you're a woman living as a man in early 20th century Ireland? Getting your dream movie made when you're an actress of a certain age in the early 21st century... [More]

Click to read more ...

How We Did On Our Predictions! How About You?

I am not one to put too much stock in "scores" for Oscar Predictions. It's more exciting to predict something fewer people saw coming and this is why, I think I'm much better at "year in advance" predictions than most pundits; I don't always embrace the "sounds good on paper" options. But there's a flip side! My willingness to take risks always hurts my stats somewhere down the line. Nevertheless we have to take stock. It's fun to survey where you soared and plummeted each year. On average I'm completely happy with my track record. Here are my hits and misses!

I had a sensational batting average with Moneyball

My Perfect Scores
Supporting Actress. I knew Janet McTeer was stronger than people were guessing. She's a gender bender and Oscar loves drag. She totally steals the movie and Oscar loves Grand Theft Movie. Plus, it's a moving role with modern resonance.
Best Director. I figured Terrence Malick was too much of a god among directors for his peers to pass up.
Cinematography. Though I'll readily admit that this didn't feel too terribly tough to predict.
Moneyball and The Artist and Hugo and A Separation. I guessed their every placement correctly...which seemed risky with two of them.

Incorrect Guess That I Was Still Kinda Right About
I knew that if Rooney Mara prevailed it'd be Tilda taking the dive. Tilda Swinton joins Sally Hawkins from Happy Go Lucky in the exclusive sorority of  "People With More Precursor Notices Than One Could Possibly Dream of But No Oscar Follow Up" ...It's a very long name for a very tiny club.

Abject Failure
Wow did I ever miss on Original Song this year. Even with five guesses I couldn't manage 1 correct one. But then, this category is the worst. The documentary branch and the foreign film branch get the most push back each year on needing guidance and rule adjustments but it's actually the music branch that's in dire need of infrastructure work. More on that in the podcast (coming in a couple of hours. It's uploading). I also made a mess of the Documentary Feature category where I only guessed 2 correctly (Pina and Paradise Lost 3).

The Single Thing I Feel Stupidest About Missing
John Williams double nomination for score. I only guessed War Horse. I predicted him to get his umpteenth double nomination for practically the whole year until the precursors and other pundits convinced me to jump on the Dragon Tattoo train which I never felt right about (in that particular category) since Reznor & Ross's Oscar success with The Social Network felt like such a wonderful anomaly. Wonderful anomalies rarely repeat themselves.

The Long Shot I Most Wish I'd Predicted for Bragging Rights
Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. In retrospect it'll feel kind of obvious to people especially since Supporting Actor felt unstable beyond Plummer. And here we have a legendary actor in a mute role (when does Oscar not go for that?) 

Something I Both Overestimated and Underestimated.
The Power of The Weepie. I put all my eggs in The Help's basket but War Horse and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close both ate into the demographic that Mark Harris amusingly dubbed "tear duct based voters" 

My Stats
37/44 in the big eight categories 
74/104 in the categories everyone tries to predict... the sound-based categories just destroyed me! 
83/119 if you include the shorts which many people don't bother with. 

How'd you do? 

*purists (you know who you are!) may quibble that I predicted only 6 Best Picture nominees. But hello the number is a separate guess from the titles ;)  I listed them in order of likelihood "if 6 nominees then... if 7 nominees then... if 8 nominees then... " etcetera which means I scored 8/9 for the Best Picture nominations. Ta da! If you don't count it that way it penalizes the people who guess fewer and awards the scaredy-cats who guess ten spots to cover all their bases. 

Yes, No, Maybe So: "Albert Nobbs"

It's our tradition here at the Film Experience to manage our expectations for new movies by forcing ourselves into yes, no, maybe so breakdowns of trailers. Since we're obviously a yes on Albert Nobbs  --"Glenn Close is not going to be ignored, Fan"-- for reasons of genesis, Oscar, LGBT loyalty, and its Glennderful nature and since we've talked about the movie enough without yet seeing it, let's do things differently. This Trailer begs for a different sort of compartmentalization. It's almost like a trailer in four acts. Is it purposefully channelling its own internal identity crisis?

They had personal trainers in 19th century? Aaron Johnson is comfortable naked...

It starts out like a frothy period comedy 0:01-0:41 (oh haha!. Remember how much you love Downton Abbey and Gosford Park?!)

Glenn isn't nearly as willing to take her clothes off!

...moves into identity crisis drama 0:42-1:12 (Mr. Albert Nobbs is actually a woman named 5 time Oscar nominee Glenn Close and Mr. Hubert Page is actually a woman named Oscar nominee Janet McTeer!)

Jane Eyre clearly thinks Rochester's a better kisser than Nobbs.

...and then tips over the edge into total chaos 1:13-2:09 like it's an uncomfortable mashup between a dreamy sentimental An American Tail style musical immigrant drama (Sinead O'Connor lullaby!) and Yentl style dramedy of convenient marriages turned totally inconvenient (!) 

... before settling into its rightful place as a For Your Consideration Oscar Ad 2:10-2:30 intended to win Glenn Close that Oscar she deserved back in 1982 (The World According to Garp), 1987 (Fatal Attraction) or 1988 (Dangerous Liaisons) or all three times depending on your point of view.

the full trailer...

How would you describe your desire to see it now?

poll by twiigs.com

How about its Oscar chances in multiple categories? 
I'm currently thinking...  

Yes - Actress (Close), Supporting Actress (McTeer)
Maybe So - a fighting longshot chance at  "Original Song", Costumes, Adapted Screenplay (this would be another way to honor Glenn Close if they're really feeling it since she co-wrote), and Art Direction.
No - Everything else.