Three Reasons Why "Argo" Became the One To Beat

You can't always know how the future will treat each year's awards recipients. Will their strengths will come into sharper focus as time erodes the particulars of the movie culture and conversation they arrived into or will that erosion grind a movie or performers appeal down with it? What will we make in five year's time of this moment when Hollywood threw awards at Argo instead of, say, Lincoln? That's what happened again last night at the Producers Guild Awards when Ben Affleck's 1970s CIA rescue tale took the top prize.

We don't have to wait for hindsight clarity when it comes to Argo's sudden rise in the previous deadheat Oscar race.  I'd say that three things are responsible, two of which no one could have predicted.

1. I'd been saying from the very start that Argo's narrative subtext, embedded into its truish story of a fake movie being used to rescue Americans from a hostile regime, that 'Movies Save the World!' feel would be irressistible to the back-patting awards season mentality in much the same way it was for the documentary The Cove some years ago.

The other two factors were not things anyone could have predicted though....

2.  Zero Dark Thirty emerged to somewhat reductive "so much better than Argo!" laudatory soundbytes (they both involve CIA meddling in the Middle East so they must be compared incessantly!) and for about a week it looked like The Real Oscar Deal but what happened next with it was very kind to Argo. Zero became the media's most slobbered on and teared at rag doll with everyone tsk-tsking and fuming and eventually subtly equating the making of it with condoning torture. By extension voting for it felt unpleasant to some, too. Suddenly the "better than Argo" conversation died and was replaced with just "...Argo", a rebooting if you will of where the Oscar conversation had previously been. Sometimes opening early helps and it's more than helped Argo.

3. The last, and most shocking turn of events was Ben Affleck's omission from the Best Director lineup. I'd long been predicting him to win that statue even though I hadn't viewed Argo necessarily as the future Best Picture champ, suspecting that we were in for a split year. The best thing that ever happened to Argo in terms of its Best Picture prospects was Affleck's "snub". And conversely, that's the worse thing that happened to Lincoln. Whatever one makes of the quality of the Best Picture nominees (have you voted for your favorite here?), Lincoln previously had the strongest narrative arriving as it did in this historic year of President Obama's reelection and the 150th anniversary of the Emancipation Proclamation. Affleck's over-mourned "snub" (people keep conveniently forgetting how strong the Best Director lineup is without him!) handed Argo an underdog narrative in a season where the narratives -- those tricky hooks that make a person or movie so irresistible in the Story of the Year's Entertainments -- weren't all that strong even if the movies were.

Reason no. 3 is in some ways the most understandable now that it's happened and the most baffling. If you really step back for some perspective Ben Affleck is an enormous waste of a Sympathy Vote. He's already an Oscar winner. He's an Oscar nominee even when he's snubbed (he'll win the Oscar if Argo wins Best Picture since he produced) - fancy that. He has a happy Hollywood marriage. He rose to fame with his best friend who is still a huge power player in Hollywood, too. He's risen from the ashes of a weirdly shaky leading man career to become a respected director and a... uh... leading man again. He's super handsome and aging well. He's made only three films all of which received Oscar attention, the latter two of which were big big hits. If anything he's a true golden boy of showbiz with a hugely enviable career and awards run and yet, you'd think he were dying! To this Awards Season he's suddenly treated like the Fantine figure in Les Miz on her death bed; the one to cry over "if only life weren't so cruel!", the one to promise everything to in order to make amends.

And all because he missed out on an expected Best Director nomination?

Mrs. Affleck at the PGAs. Oh, you know she makes this pose at home while mock scolding BenTHE WINNERS

Outstanding Producer, Film: Ben Affleck, Grant Henslov, George Clooney for Argo
Outstanding Producer, Documentary: Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn for Searching for Sugar Man
Outstanding Producer, Animated: Clark Spencer for Wreck-it Ralph
Outstanding Producer, Longform TV: Gary Goetzman, Tom Hanks, Jay Roach, Amy Sayres, Steven Shareshian, Danny Strong for "Game Change"
Outstanding Producer, Episodic TV (Drama): Henry Bromell, Alexander Cary, Michael Cuesta, Alex Gansa, Howard Gordon, Chip Johannessen, Michael Klick, Meredith Stiehm for "Homeland"
Outstanding Producer, Episodic TV (Comedy): Cindy Chupack, Paul Corrigan, Abraham Higginbotham, Ben Karlin, Steven Levitan, Christopher Lloyd, Jeff Morton, Dan O’Shannon, Jeffrey Richman, Chris Smirnoff, Brad Walsh, Bill Wrubel, Danny Zuker for "Modern Family" 
Outstanding Producer, NonFiction TV: Prudence Glass, Susan Lacy,Julie Sacks for "American Masters" PBS 
Outstanding Producer, Live TV: Meredith Bennett, Stephen Colbert, Richard Dahm, Paul Dinello, Barry Julien, Matt Lappin, Emily Lazar, Tanya Michnevich Bracco, Tom Purcell,Jon Stewart for "The Colbert Report" 
Outsanding Producer, Competition TV:  Jerry Bruckheimer, Elise Doganieri, Jonathan Littman, Bertram van Munster, Mark Vertullo for "The Amazing Race"

Outstanding Sports Program: "Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel"
Outstanding Children's Program:  "Sesame Street"
Outstanding Digital Series: "30 Rock: The Webisodes" 

Hollywood's Current Hierarchy (According to Vulture)

Recently we discussed Forbes list of the highest paid actresses of the last year but money alone paints a crap portrait about what matters in the movies. Vulture recently released a list of the Top 100 Valuable Stars and weighed numerous factors like Oscar pull, box office, and media interest of various kinds. It's the kind of list that Premiere and Entertainment Weekly used to do in ye olden times, a list with more to say than just "hey, we need more page views, click on me 100 times for random photos with two sentence capsules!").

Since there's way too much to say about a list of 100 for a blog post, let's recap their Actressy stance within the top 100, only 30% of that list (sigh), starting with the undisputed queens...

Queen of Action.
Queen of Everything.
Queen of "America's Sweethearts".

27 more actresses (and commentary) after the jump

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TIFF: Fonda Plays a Hippie, Jennifer Sculpts "Butter", Viola Talks "Dark Girls"

Paolo here again to discuss three new films.

Peace Love and Misunderstanding
Bruce Beresford's new film begins with a table full of stuffy bourgeois lawyers taking down Pulitzer-winning playwrights. They seem like the kind of people the audience would like to become when they're older, having real opinions about theatre and the other high arts. This party takes place despite the Reaganite hostess, Diane Hudson (Catherine Keener) considering a divorcing from her husband (Kyle McLachlan). She takes her kids Zoe (Elizabeth Olsen) and 'documentarian' Jake (Nat Wolff) to the legendary Woodstock, New York to see their hippie grandmother (Jane Fonda). Fonda's character's presence thus questions one's notion of adulthood, as she is older yet free as the grandmother we wish we had.

Divorce and the other conflicts pop up one after another only to be resolved, a tricky comic tone to maintain. This light freedom is also evident in one scene when a chicken practically blocks our view of a character adding to the chaotic yet natural energy in this home and town. Every member of the household gets to hook up, Diane with a local musician (Jeffrey Dean Morgan), vegetarian Zoe's surprise match with a butcher named Cole (Chace Crawford) and Jake with a barista.

Fonda was the master of modern American elocution and we still hear that when she fires off the script's great one liners. But even Fonda can't help when her character turns into a Kristen Wiig caricature. Chace Crawford, capably evokes the heavy air that comes with a young man who has grown up in a rural area. And since I might not get to catch Martha Marcy May Marlene at the festival, watching Olsen's supporting work here is a decent consolation prize. She performs Zoe just as intelligent and emotionally sound as the script suggests.

Butter
This comedy about the world of butter sculpture competition in Iowa centers around Laura Pickler (Jennifer Garner), a sculptor's wife who takes on her husband Bob's (Ty Burrell) job after he is forced into retirement. Quirk topic with the strangest case of a joke bombing in a movie... (more on Butter and the documentary Dark Girls with Viola Davis after the jump.)

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Cinema de Gym: 'Juno'

Kurt here, back with another installment of Cinema de Gym. Y'all didn't have much to say about the last two episodes, so I'm happy to return with a movie that's more actressy and Oscary, for better or worse. Hopefully it'll get folks talking. Juno is a film that has not sat well in my memory – a hipper-than-thou pin cushion for all my Quirk Cinema complaints. When a post-2007 indie gets under the skin with all its precious, self-negating eccentricities, Diablo Cody usually proves the perfect scapegoat. What hath she wrought with her Millenial-surrealist dialogue, best described as Kevin Williamson by way of the Urban Outfitters library? Well, probably half of what's now in the Urban Outfitters library, for one. Her words are sticky pop contrivance glazed over genuine depth of feeling, a concoction that was wildly validated by everyone from Oscar to Ebert to an army of young adults, who'd found their Clueless – a comedy that shaped their vernacular.

Which, in all fairness, is no small feat, and I tip my hat to Cody for having the wherewithal to tap into the voice of a generation (or, at least, the pseudo-emo white-kid leg of it). But her hyper-stylization is certainly not without its drawbacks, and Juno sees many an honest moment neutralized by an on-cue Codyism. The argument, of course, is that the lingo is what makes the film unique (and, to many, what makes it great). My retort is that its success is hinged on the direction of Jason Reitman (a near-virtuoso among young American filmmakers) and the performances from the cast. Though he operates on the same tonal plane as his screenwriter, Reitman's visualization of Cody's script is what truly shapes the film's identity, speaking to you in a singularly authentic way the words cannot. And the impeccably chosen actors, though no doubt thrilled to have been handed such colorful material, do some astonishing weight-lifting in terms of helping to substantiate the language. Their work, and Reitman's, will make this film watchable in 20 years. Cody's will always live in the "whoa dream big" world of 2007.

I'll admit I rolled my eyes when I saw that Juno was the film of the day at the gym. My retrospective qualms with it tend to blind me of its charms. The segment I caught was highly representative of the film entire: a peaks-and-valleys stretch of time riddled with poignant moments and Codyan pratfalls. I got to see the bit where Jason Bateman and Jennifer Garner's relationship ends, the part where Juno tells Jennifer "I'm still in if you are" (excuse me while I freely mix actor and character names), and the part where Juno professes her love for Paulie Bleeker. This, unfortunately, also means I had to hear an in-labor Juno declare that "Thundercats are go!"; a lovely speech undone by the line, "You're golden, man"; and background song lyrics that whisper, "I like amputees with stamp collections" (though I guess I can't blame Cody for that one). That's Juno for you: it giveth and it taketh away.

Before I go, I wanted to say a word or two about Garner, who's never been lovelier or more assured as an actor than she is in this movie. A fine candidate for Michael C.'s Unsung Heroes series, her performance – easily overlooked upon first viewing – is all heart and earnestness, and she's very much the straight gal to everyone else's buzzing one-linerocity. Does that mean she doesn't do as much weight-lifting? Hardly. Garner more or less carries this movie's weight. I was happy to exit during the scene where she enters the delivery room and picks up her son for the first time. "I think he was always hers," says Juno's narration. It's a perfect metaphor for how I feel about this film: Cody may have carried Juno in the womb, but it's surrogates who stepped in and raised it to its full potential.

Conclusions?

1. Movies may often start with the screenwriter, but they certainly don't end with them.
2. Jennifer Garner should have had a much greater presence in the 2007 awards discussion.
3. I am not exactly looking forward to Young Adult, aka Reitman-Cody Partnership, Part Deux.
4. Just for kicks: Google "Paulie Bleeker" and what do you find? Paulie Bleeker Halloween costumes. I am really tempted...

So, how 'bout it? Has my Juno post left you pregnant with responses?

Red Carpet: Emma Floats, Zoe Swims, Jennifer Drowns

For today's Red Carpet Convo, I'm joined by both of my usual coconspirators, Kurt and Jose. In this episode Kurt will lose all his motor skills, Jose will reveal psychic fashion powers, and I will prove my abject sports stupidity. Enjoy!

Nathaniel: W‪e'll start by pretending we're in London -- which none of us are (we've got the East Coast and South America in the house) -- to visit a BAFTA function‬.

‪Kurt: ‬ ‪I'm there -- un-straightening my teeth as we speak‬.

Jose: ‬ ‪it's rainy and grey down here so consider me in Sweeney Todd "no place like London" mood‬

CHENO, HER ROYAL ASSNESS, MRS BEN AFFLECK, NICKI, and MLP

‪Nathaniel: ‬ ‪At first I was all "Why are ALL the stars out for a "Brits to Watch" award -- the recipients of which (who?) are quite outshadowed by the starpower  -- but then i realized it was hosted by the royals Prince & Kate which explains it.‬

‪Kurt: ‬ ‪Hey, excuses to dress up... I thought for sure we'd be chatting up the Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 premiere.

Nathaniel: ‬ ‪Patience, would be skydiver, patience.‬ So before we speak of individuals I must say that one of my favorite things is when all the beauties wear different colors. Rainbow is the absolute best red carpet color.‬ 

Kurt: ‬ ‪yes...lovely little spectrum here‬. Are we going to play Guess The Bum? Because my eyes can't focus on anything else
‪
Jose: ‬ ‪Someone should tell this to the Red Globes, the Purple Oscars and the Black SAGs‬

Nathaniel: Exactly! And it's quite representative too. I couldn't spot any hive-mind aesthetic at the Bafta shindig‬
‪
Kurt: ‬ ‪There i go again, getting ahead of things...we can stick with the color convo sorry‬ 

Jose: ‬ ‪I'm curious as to who chose the guests though, why the hell is Mary Louise Parker there and not Cate or Meryl or Kate?‬

Nathaniel: ‬ ‪I can't help you there. As to guess the bum. C'mon on. Look at it. Y'all know who that is.

‪Jose: ‬ ‪Her royal ass-ness‬

Kurt: ‬ ‪I figured‬

Nathaniel: ‬ ‪Jenny's block has moved to London‬

Kurt: ‬ ‪Can we talk for a sec about her music? I'd like opinions from the group‬

Nathaniel: ‬ ‪i have none.‬ Jose?

‪Jose: ‬ ‪meh, it's fun when you're drunk‬

Kurt: ‬ ‪now there's a quote‬. put that on the album cover 

Nathaniel:  ‬ ‪Blurb Whore!‬

‪Jose: ‬ and 'my spinning instructor loves her too‬.'

‪Kurt: ‬ ‪hahaha‬. All i'm saying is, i'd have a hard time takin' criticisms from her assness, if i were an American Idol. the end.‬ but, she is stunning. that skin

Nathaniel: ‬ I always feel like JLo is always trying too hard. I mean that dress is SO busy with the cutouts and the arm decor.‬

Jose: ‬ ‪she is an American Idol though, she embodies everything pop music has become about: mediocre voice, crazy antics and lots of merchandise‬

Kurt: ‬ ‪oh yea her fashion is nuts...remember that thing from "Savage Beauty"?‬

Nathaniel: ‬ ‪I'd prefer not to.‬ Kristin Chenoweth's dress is reminding me of something and I can't think what for the life of me. That color combo...

‪Jose: ‬ OMG it's reminding you of Dazzler, just say it 

Nathaniel: ‬ ‪SHUT IT.‬ I have retired my Dazzler obsession. It was a weird K-Hole of spring 2011.

‪Jose: ‬ ‪Hahaha the moment I saw her, I thought of Dazz and I blame you Nathaniel!‬

Nathaniel: ‬ ‪again: RETIRED. much like Jennifer Garner until quite recently.‬
‪
Jose: ‬ ‪Cheno reminded me of when Nicole won the Globe for MR!

Nathaniel: ‬ ‪Jose you have a sick memory.‬ Photographic so long as there's an actress and a dress

Jose: ‬ ‪I chose to take that as a compliment‬. My friends are annoyed by my fashion memory, they think I'm like a version of Lisbeth Salander who's into Vogue‬

Nathaniel: ‪Maybe Cheno's dress reminds me of some high-end old-school hotel ballroom corporate function draping? I dunno. it's really bugging me. It's so old money whilst being completely boring.‬

Kurt: ‬ ‪I'm getting lampshade-cum-business drape‬ 

Jose: ‬ ‪I kinda like it though, it's very Cher at Studio 54‬ but I think she needed higher heels to pull it off better.

Nathaniel: ‬ ‪Hmmm. I can't imagine Cher in it unless there were like a headpiece with it.‬

Kurt: ‬ ‪i don't think chenoweth should ever try for cher anything‬

Nathaniel: ‬ ‪Cheno does "Half Breed". JUST IMAGINE IT.‬

poll by twiigs.com

Jose: ‬ ‪LOL‬

‪Kurt: ‬ ‪i am NOT feeling this bolt of fabric Jennifer Garner is rocking. my goodness‬. she's drowning in fabric. save her!‬

‪Jose: ‬ ‪you just broke my heart Kurt‬ J. Gar's YSL is the thing couturier wet dreams are made of. It's so simple it's just perfect‬

‪Kurt: ‬ ‪well let's get something straight here: in all likelihood you are a much better judge of fashion than me, but from this angle, I see a fabric attack‬

Jose: ‬ ‪but it's supposed to be about movement, it's very flowy and watery‬. Imagine some sort of Greek goddess thing going on.

Kurt: ‬ ‪i get that...your explanation is kinda working...‬

Nathaniel: ‬ ‪I was going to say that i love the color on Garner so much but maybe anything other than Elektra Red I love on her because I just can't... you thought i was obsesed with Dazzler? You dont wanna know about my Elektra thing. Hated Garner doing her so much.‬

Jose: ‬ ‪she pulls off color quite well, remember that crazy orange thing she wore to the Oscars?‬

Kurt: ‬ ‪that was gorg

‬‪Jose: ‬ It was! but it was such a crazy Fanta color that few people would've dared to use it. Sigh. I miss her at the Oscars, never knew what the hell she was doing there but she always looked stunning‬

Red is just easy I guess, like Halle and nude color‬

Nathaniel:  ‬ ‪or everyone in black.‬

‪Kurt: ‬ ‪oh god, i just finally caught the arm thing on JLo's dress. what is wrong with her‬?

But wait there's more! Nicole's goddess scoop, Nathaniel plays Marco Polo, Swoosie Kurtz is lactose tolerant, and Jennifer Aniston's secret messaging.

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