Oscar June Predix Update. What We Know Now...

... can fit into a thimble or a wee baby's hand. Sometimes by May's end one or two fairly-sure things have become clear, but the closest we have to that, still, is Rango in the animated film department. Old news.

What did the Month of May teach us suggest to us?

1. The Weinsteins, who finally won their first post-Miramax "Best Picture"  with The King's Speech, will not likely be satiated by that triumph. It'll just make them hungry for another. They have been beefing up their competitive slate. They either have faith in both Phyllida Lloyd's Thatcher bio The Iron Lady (which sounds typically "prestige" enough for Oscar play, even if it turns out dull) and the crowdpleaser The Artist (which sounds accessible enough for Oscar play, despite being a silent film) or they didn't want anyone else to have one or both of them. You never know with them. And you won't know till the last minute; the Weinsteins are notoriously patient about waiting it out, either because they like to see what the awards air is like, or just because they believe more strongly in the "ONLY DECEMBER!" Oscar strategy than any other distributor. We'll find out more about their plan towards the end of the year. 

2. Cannes elevated the intriguing possibility of Kirsten Dunst Best Actress traction for Melancholia -- something we've long hoped for for one of our favorite actresses -- but what's yet more delicious than her Cannes win is the myriad ways this could play out with a complicated mix of voting factors (actual high quality performance, off-performance sympathy votes, career comeback of sorts, Lars von Trier's unpredictable track record in US distribution); Those moviegoers who love to follow the politics of Oscar, not just the movies, are bound to enjoy this particular story as it unfolds. 

3. The warm reception for Midnight in Paris raised the distinct possibility that Woody Allen could see his 15th Best Original Screenplay nomination. Pundits, including myself, have regularly sold the idea that Mr Allen is always a threat in the Original Screenplay category but in truth, that "always" is quite an overestimation given that he hasn't been a  "regular" since the 90s. (He only received one nomination in the Aughts making him less an always then a 10% kinda guy these days). He didn't even get much Oscar traction for Vicky Cristina Barcelona despite a Golden Globe  Picture win and an eventual Oscar for Penélope Cruz. But Midnight, might be a different story. Firstly, there's no individual performance that awards bodies can latch on to -- the showiest work is done by the people with the teeniest parts -- and if anyone reaps the benefits of the love for the film, it'll be Allen himself. Midnight is quite light on its feet despite a theme with melancholy resonance, and it's performing well at the box office. As The Film Experience has always maintained, Oscar voters tastes are basically a figurative amalgam of critics + moviegoers + media; if those three groups like something (even if they do so for entirely different reasons), Oscar will join them.

4. I'm not sure what we know about The Tree of Life. I feel lost here. At first one heard "mixed reviews" than it won the "Palme D'Or" and then it opened. It's been a whirlwind of activity. If the random stories of older audiences walking out are true -- can one ever trust "stories" about certain demographics loving or hating any film? Said stories always seem rife with possible agendas and/or horse's mouth biases -- than it might be dead in the water for Oscar. BUT. It just opened. Let's see how it plays as it expands. If Malick teaches us anything he teaches us patience, right? See you at his next film in 2019! (I'm kidding. Supposedly the next film has already completed shooting... but I'll believe back-to-back Malick releases when they happen and no sooner.)

5. My guess is that Pirates of the Caribbean bombed too badly with critics to win it much heat in the technical categories where it's previously done fairly well for itself. Thor wasn't a big enough deal financially and in the passion-meter of its fans to score any technicals (though it's worth noting that its production designer Bo Welch is an Academy favorite), so the next two superhero tests are X-Men First Class and Green Lantern. For some possibly silly reason, I've convinced myself that it's Captain America that might get the tech nods that you know at least one of the comic book films will win.

Eventually comic book films will invade Oscar. Though it seems improbable now it's a matter of percentages. As more and more of them get made, Oscar will have less and less ways to avoid them.

Here's something we don't know...

What the hell is going on with The Eye of the Storm? It's one of those titles, an adaptation of a novel, that I only discovered in researching potential Oscar players (and talking in the comments to you!) but I never hear a peep about it in terms of "official" anything. Nevertheless it looks promising and actressy, and maybe Geoffrey Rush's post-Speech heat and general hammy deliciousness (to AMPAS palettes at least) can help it out? I've tried everything I could think of to embed the teaser (everything I could think of = copy and paste) but nothing works so you'll have to go to Twitch to see it.

Fly away, pigeon. Just say your farewell and go.

Dying Charlotte Rampling theatrically dismissing bitchy Judy Davis is my new two second obsession. Enjoy it with me!

UPDATED OSCAR PREDICTIONS ALL CATEGORIES
Click on the individual category titles to explore further.

Cannes: Best Actress and Best Actor

Hmmm. Not sure what to make of this. It's both awesome in that Kirsten Dunst is realizing she's part of history (why am I hearing a Drew Barrymore lispy childhood throwback in her voice? It's so cute) and troubling. You see, as we've discussed before the Melancholia press conference can't have been easy for her but my personal feeling is that she should defer the LvT questions -- say as little as posssible -- rather than join in the condemnation. He is, after all, her director of the performance that's bringing in the accolades and helping her win her first huge Best Actress prize as a star. She needs to  separate herself but still be gracious about it. If her performance ends up being one of the best of the film year, hopefully she'll have the chance to perfect this tricky balance later on in Oscar season.

For the French speakers among you, to balance things out, here's Best Actor winner Jean DuJardin from The Artist.

Cannes Winners: Kiki, Malick, and More

The 64th annual Cannes Film Festival wrapped up today with the jury awards.

Some awards announcements feel like deflations to robust film festivals but not this year. Major conversation pieces won big, extending the buzz if not adding much in the way of a surprise element that can sometimes send hype spinning in new directions.

First and foremost I, personally, must let out a whoop of joy at the news that Kirsten Dunst took Best Actress. I've long been a champion of her underappreciated gifts. She's one of those rare actresses who is just as skilled at both comedic and dramatic roles and her filmography will eventually have the last laugh over her many detractors.  Her "comeback", artistically speaking, probably started with All Good Things this December. She won very complimentary reviews and a last minute Oscar campaign even though the film itself didn't get much attention. [The Film Experience Interview from Kirsten Dunst if you missed it.]

Gif via Rich at FourFour

Main Jury (Robert DeNiro was Jury President)
This jury, the jury that gets all the attention, hands out the prizes for the films in the main competition roster. But Cannes has several sidebars as well.
PALME D'OR The Tree of Life by Terrence Malick.
GRAND PRIX (runner up) The Kid With The Bike by the Dardenne Brothers who seem to win something each and every year and Once Upon a Time in Anatolia by Nuri Bilge Ceylan

JURY PRIZE Polisse by Maïwenn Le Besco (we discussed her very briefly)
DIRECTOR Nicolas Winding Refn for Drive (making good on the critical excitement)
SCREENPLAY Joseph Cedar for Footnote
ACTOR Jean DuJardin for The Artist
ACTRESS Kirsten Dunst for Melancholia (see previous posts)

Camera D'Or (Jury President Bong Joon Ho, of Mother and The Host fame)
GOLDEN CAMERA (Best First Feature)  Las Acacias directed by Pablo Giorgelli [Argentina]

Un Certain Regard (Jury President Emir Kusturica of Underground and Black Cat White Cat fame)
PRIZE OF UN CERTAIN REGARD (tie) Arirang by Kim Ki-Duk and Stopped on Track by Andreas Dresen

SPECIAL JURY PRIZE Elena by Andrey Zvyaginstev
DIRECTING PRIZE Mohammad Rasoulof for Bé Omid é Didar

Critics Week  (Jury President Chang-dong Lee of Poetry and Secret Sunshine fame)
This jury concentrates on new directors (meaning first or second timers)
FEATURE Take Shelter (which played at Sundance) starring Michael Shannon & Jessica Chastain.
SPECIAL MENTION Snowtown (a controversial choice)
CID/CCAS and the OFAJ Las Acacias (which also won the Camera D'Or)

The Skin I Live In wins a Cinematography Prize. Notice the poster on the wall is the one they've been using for the film's teaser poster

C.S.T
VULCAN PRIZE (for an artist technician) went to cinematographer José Luis Alcaine for Pedro Almodóvar's The Skin I Live In (previous posts)
SPECIAL DISTINCTION went to Sound Designer Paul Davies and Editor Joe Bini for Lynne Ramsay's We Need To Talk About Kevin

Cross-CountryCinefondation and Short Films (Jury President Michel Gondry)
SHORT FILMS
PALME D'OR Cross-Country by Maryna Vroda
JURY PRIZE Swimsuit 46 by Wannes Destoop

CINEFONDATION
1ST PRIZE Der Brief (The Letter) by Dorotyea Droumeva
2ND PRIZE Drari by Kamal Lazraq
3RD PRIZE Fly By Night by Son Tae-gyum

In terms of the Oscar race, which rarely correlates with Cannes and doesn't need to, this still adds a helpful sheen of prestige to The Tree of Life, Melancholia and Take Shelter which will all see the US marketplace. Given the multiple prizes for the Argentinian debut film Las Acacias one also wonders if it will be Argentina's Oscar submission?

What do you make of all this? Did anything surprise you?

Melancholia Fallout

I really hope that all the press conference controversy surrounding Lars Von Trier's Melancholia doesn't hinder its awards chances if it had any to begin with. Ioncinema's critics panel loved the movie but at least one distributor has already bailed. I am usually quite amused by Lars Von Trier's ease at manipulating the press with his outrageous comments -- everyone falls for it every time! Suckers -- but this time, sadly, his mischief may affect his film's chances to be seen. Which... argh. It's so anti-art to be offended by someone's peronality and therefore reject their work in its entirety and, worse, prevent others from seeing it.

Lars is always making his actresses uncomfortable

This type of moral outrage at bad-taste humor can often snowball in uncomfortable ways. I'm already worried that The Five Obstructions project with Martin Scorsese, which sounds thrilling, will end up derailed as well. Lars Von Trier has apologized but because he is also Lars Von Trier he's been making inflammatory follow up comments as well about enjoying the persona non grata designation.

I haven't been reading Melancholia reviews other than skimming blurbs. I'm most intrigued by IndieWire's description of the film as Von Trier's Rachel Getting Married because, well, who wouldn't want to see that? I was also intrigued by Hollywood Elsewhere's comment about Kiki's lead performance:

She's never operated in such a dark, fleshy and grandiose realm.

Though maybe you can disregard that one, since Mr. Wells doesn't seem to have a sense of how accomplished Dunst's filmography actually is. The Spider-Man trilogy sure did pull the wool over everyone's eyes in terms of her versatility and the general strength of her filmography. Rich at FourFour hasn't yet seen the movie but he sure loves Kiki's performance at the press conference.

ANYWAY... My increasingly anti-review stance is getting uncomfortable for me as a blogger/pundit/critic/loudmouth. I tend to talk more about movies AFTER their release and the world has definitely trended away from me (gulp) there, preferring to exhaust conversations before moviegoers can join in. I haven't decided quite how to work around this yet. See, I knew way too much bout LVT's Antichrist -- to connect this train of thought back to Melancholia -- before seeing it and it was very frustrating for me. What should have been a shock-fest instead was just "oh, here comes that part. I see what he did there." I know in my soul that the modern habit of digging for all and every piece of information for each new movie before experiencing it beforehand (a kindred spirit to the now commonplace Oscar-fanatic trend to take adamant Oscar sides before seeing the performances in question) is detrimental to the magic of the movies. But how to stay informed without spoiling your own capacity for surprise and joy?  Are you also struggling with this? It's been getting progressively worse over the past 5 or so years. I wonder if this will cycle back culturally to valuing secrets or if it will just get worse?  

My favorite shot in the Melancholia trailer. So evocative and childlike

If you released The Crying Game (1992) in today's moviegoing climate, for example, I bet it would never have taken off and nagged several Oscar nominations. (Oscar nominations that were completely deserved, mind you.)  Its whole campaign was about keeping the secret (which wasn't exactly a last minute twist) and by the time people staring knowing the secret before seeing it -- thanks to one of those Oscar nominations -- it was already a "must see" film.

My train of thought has jumped the rails. Back to Melancholia. Do you think the jury will dare give it any prizes, if they were already so inclined, given that Lars von Trier has been expelled?

Related: Yes No Maybe So Melancholia
Interview: The Return of Kirsten Dunst, A Very Good Thing

Reader Spotlight: Borja

Hey people! Sorry we missed the spotlight last week. This is a series where we get to know members of The Film Experience community!

This week I'd like to introduce you to Borja from Spain. He's a talent agent so if you're an actor or actress, maybe one day he'll be staring at your headshot or reel!

Nathaniel: Borja thanks for doing this. How did you discover The Film Experience?
BORJA:  I was googling an actress two years ago and clicked over. I love your point of view Nathaniel and it's a place where people are passionate but respectful -- something rare on the web.

Thanks. Do you remember your first movie?
The first I remember vividly was Raiders of the Lost Ark and I left the theater changed forever. I was only six and it was my true favorite for a long time, the benchmark for all action and adventure movies. All the people involved became my heroes: Steven Spielberg, who is directly responsible of my love for movies, Harrison Ford and, of course, Karen Allen. Marion Ravenwood is still one of the most fascinating female characters of all time.

So underrated! I'm feeling generous so I'm giving you FIVE favorite actresses. Go.
I´ll try…

Sigourney Weaver: My first favorite. I discovered her for the first time in “Ghostbusters”, a movie where she is funny, sexy, dark and intelligent. The definitive love came with “Alien”, logically. There is nothing I can say about Ellen Ripley that hasn't been said before. The idea of a woman taking control, being brave, tough and credible at the same time… Ufff… too much for me, I was trapped. Weaver is much more than Ripley though. Highlights on her career: “Year of living dangerously” (my personal favorite at the moment), “Working girl”, “Gorillas in the mist”, “Death and the maiden” or “A map of the world”. One word to describe her? Unique. No one before, no one after her.

Penélope Cruz. To understand my passion you must live in Spain. She became a national star at 18, with two movies: “Jamón Jamón” and “Belle Epoque”. Since then, she has had a career with up and downs, but being the most successful Spanish actress in history, becoming a big star in Hollywood, having problems with the English language and finally being nominated to three Oscars and winning. During that whole time I was supporting her from a distance. In Spain, the coolest thing you can say about her is that she is a bad actress, she is not so beautiful and looks cheap. It´s so tiring! I think she has the screen presence only the greatest stars of all time have.

Kirsten Dunst: The most underrated actress of her generation. I love how she takes the simplest way to create a character. You will never see her overacting or being selfish, she is always honest, transparent and clean. You can read everything through her eyes. I find her fascinating as a woman, I love the way she looks, the way she talks… everything ! She is not at the peak of her popularity these days but I´m sure that's temporary. Can't wait to see her work with Von Trier.

Michelle Williams: I was a "Dawson's Creek" addict and I remember being very mad because everything on the show was designed as a vehicle for Katie Holmes (nothing against Mrs. Cruise). But since the pilot I was in love with Michelle… in fact I remembered her from “Species”, that terrible Alien-with a hot blonde movie. Since then, she has proved not only that she is a versatile infinite actress but that she has taste and guts choosing projects. And it doesn't hurt that she is a class act in everything related with her exposed and difficult life.

Kate Winslet: Capable of everything. Period.

You work in the industry as an agent right? What do you look for in actors to decide to represent them?
Mmmm… difficult question. I could talk for hours about this and say nothing but I will try to be concrete: The perfect mixture of talent, intuition and charisma. Oh, and I try to work only with good people, this is fundamental for me.  

That's SO under-discussed. Let this be a lesson to all budding film professionals: it's not only talent or looks. If you're not good people, who will want to hang around you all day on set?

OK, wrapping up. The movie of your life. Title? Star?
The title should be: “La camisa del hombre feliz” (“The shirt of the happy man”, kind of…) and who I want to play me? Uff… Must be short, with dark hair and a big nose. Ben Foster comes to my mind, or Emile Hirsch. Those could work.

previous episodes of this series