Does 2017 = 2005 in Best Actor?

by Ben Miller

Film blogger Jordan Ruimy posited an observation a month ago on Twitter: 

In 2002 Gary Oldman would have been a cinch to win Best Actor, in 2017 he's a major question mark. The Oscars have changed.

While the awards season definitely shifted thereafter, his tweet remains at least partially true. Look at the history of the Best Actor Oscar.  From 1990 to 1997, every winner had a specific ailment (criminal insanity, alcoholism, AIDS), while 1998 to 2001 had a run of death scenes.  Of the past 16 years, starting with Adrien Brody in 2002, 10 winners have been for portrayals of real people (Casey Affleck's win last year broke a four-year run of biopic winners). There are always patterns to Oscar behavior.

This year’s slate of Best Actor nominees has an interesting parallel with the Best Actor race of 2005.  Let’s take a look back at the lineup...

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Olympics at the Oscar and "I, Tonya"

by Nathaniel R

Margot Robbie recently shared this pic from "exactly a year ago" when she was training for I TONYA

Is Margot Robbie the first actress to ever be nominated playing an Olympic athlete? I legit don't know the answer but I can't think of any others. The only previous Oscar nominated performances that we could think of were men: Will Smith as Muhammad Ali (though the focus there wasn't on the Olympics) and Mark Ruffalo as David Schultz (thanks commenters for this one!)

If you think back over movies that revolved around the Olympics in some way they aren't usually acting showcases (Chariots of Fire) or aren't focused on the Olympians themselves (Munich) or they're films that were either aimed at wide audience crowd pleasing or just didn't connect with awards voters (The Cutting Edge, Personal Best, Running Brave, Prefontaine, Eddie the Eagle, Cool Runnings) or they're documentaries which by their nature can't score acting honors.

There have been Olympians with movie careers but I can't think of any actors except Margot and Will Smith (who coincidentally co-starred in Focus in 2015) who have been nominated for playing an Olympian. Can you? Am I forgetting something totally obvious?

90th Oscar Nominations: Shape of Water Leads. Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread Surprise.

by Nathaniel R

Guillermo del Toro's beauty & the beast style macabre fantasy romance cold war mystery monstery movie whatsit The Shape of Water led the nominations with 13. (The record for most nominations remains 14 held jointly by Titanic, All About Eve and La La Land). Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread were the overperformers this morning with 6 nominations each even though many pundits (including myself) didn't think they'd quite manage Best Picture nods even though we were predicting them in other categories. For the record I myself had Phantom Thread in 10th place and Darkest Hour in 12th place (oops). As expected Blade Runner 2049 was the most nominated film without a Best Picture nomination (5 nominations. The record in the new era of the expanded Best Picture field remains with Carol which had 6 nominations). And finally The Post ends its whiplashing inducing what-is-happening-with-this-movie precursor adventure by scoring just 2 nods but they're biggies: Picture and Actress. 

TRIVIA AND COMMENTARY FOLLOWS...

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Worst Best Picture Snubs Ever?

by Nathaniel R

This week on Las Culturistas I froze on the question of "Greatest Oscar Snub of All Time?" so with 5 days out until the nominations (we know we know final predictions coming at'cha starting tomorrow), let's answer it! Restricting ourselves to Best Picture here because you gotta keep it tight when answering loose questions. 

SO WHAT WERE THE DOZEN WORST BEST PICTURE SNUBS EVER? Let's group them according to types of injustice...

TYPE 1. PLENTIFUL NOMINATIONS INCLUDING BEST DIRECTOR. SO WHY COULDN'T OSCAR GO THAT ONE SIMPLE HAPPY STEP FURTHER?  My Man Godfrey (1936) and Some Like it Hot (1959), 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) and They Shoot Horses Don't They? (1969) and Thelma and Louise (1991)

In all five of these cases the Best Picture snubs are puzzling. It's not just that the movies are all so grand that you watch them with jaw dropped -- from laughter, cathartic despair, or sheer awe. It's also that the Academy loved them enough to recognize them across multiple branches...

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50 days til Oscar. 50 movies with no Oscar love

by Nathaniel R

Oooh we're getting so close! It's just 50 days until Hollywood's High Holy Night and just 10 until we know which films will be competing for which prizes. As this season winnows down to its "winners" it's good to remember that "losers" is a temporary notion. As we've said often and will continue to say: Greatness is its own reward. Oscar has been around for 90 years now and if the past 89 are any indication some movies that are completely ignored come January 23rd when the nominations are announced will be more celebrated by the people of, say, 2049 (if the world survives that long) than by the people of now. Don't believe me? Here are FIFTY randomly chosen movies of large critical or popular or historical reputation and/or devout still vocal fanbases that received ZERO -- that's right zero -- Oscar nominations in their day... 

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