New Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories... Locked Up or Not?

By Nathaniel R

Post SAG & Globe Nominations each year oscar's acting categories start feeling locked up. But here's something always worth remembering: Each year brings us 1 or 2 new additions to the "nominated for SAG & Globe but still missed Oscar" close-but-no-cigar club.  This year in particular seems unlikely to have as much exact 5/5 correlation due to the double whammy of Oscar's acting branch voting a little later than usual (they don't get ballots until January 5th) and the precursors voting a smidge earlier than usual. The next two weeks are crucial; no one who is remotely close to a nomination should give up just yet.

ACTRESS
Portman has been winning lots of critics awards but, strangely, her film (just as strong or even stronger than her eery performance) isn't doing as well. She's not exactly locked for a second win but she's definitely giving Emma Stone a fright and probably preventing Amy Adams or Annette Bening from dreaming of their first very long-awaited wins. The nomination race is even tighter...

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Showbiz History: Irene Dunne's Near-Record, Brittany Murphy's Untimely Death, Scream's Release

Today in showbiz history if you need something to celebrate with the world ending* and all...
*too dramatic? That's what it feels like lately, is all... 

1812 "Grimm's Fairy Tales" is published. They never stop influencing popular culture thereafter. 
1880 Broadway gets the nickname "The Great White Way" when it's first lit up by electricity
1892 Phileas Fog completes his trip 'round the globe in the novel Around the World in Eighty Days (later adapted to the screen)
1898 Irene Dunne, one of the greatest actresses of Hollywood's Golden Age was born on this day in Kentucky. She went on to five leading actress nominations (my favorite is The Awful Truth, 1937) without ever winning.

WHY THAT'S A BIG DEAL IN OSCAR HISTORY IS REVEALED AFTER THE JUMP...

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Exactly How Rare / Precious is "La La Land"?

With La La Land opening tomorrow (go see it) we must discuss it's already combed over reception from film critics and awards pundits and the like. When La La Land took the Best Picture prize from the NYFCC last week, certain pockets of people were outraged. Suddenly it was a "safe" movie, middlebrow, something utterly and completely common. 'Boy meets girls. Boy loses girl. UGH Romantic Dramas, am I right?!' Awards season backlash and contrarianism is a real thing though people try to pretend it's not each and every year and consider their motives solely pure. I know I've been guilty of it myself. I trust exactly no one in the entire talking-about-movies ecosphere who claims they haven't. Awards season is like politics; It affects everyone, even or especially those who rage against it and claim it to be meaningless to them. File that type under "the lady doth protest too much".

Naturally I was quick to jump to La La Land's defense whenever this happened. This was not because I love it (which I do...but keeping it 100 it's not a Moulin Rouge! level masterwork or anything) or even because I am a die hard warrior for the musical form. No, I bristle solely because this stance is ridiculous. La La Land is absolutely the furthest thing from a "safe" or common movie. And how uncommon it is, after further research, was stunning even to me!

Some lists before the revelation... 

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Oscar's Visual Effects Race, Round One

This just in... The Academy will narrow down the list of possibilities in Visual Effects on a couple of weeks to ten films but they've cobbled together the initial list of 20 semi-finalists. Along with all six superhero films of the year, the presumed frontrunner The Jungle Book is accounted for as is one animated picture - Kubo and the Two Strings. Kubo isn't the first animated picture to make the bakeoffs but only one has ever been nominated for the Oscar in this category (The Nightmare Before Christmas, 1993).

The complete lists of finalists, Oscar trivia, and the films that didn't make the cut are after the jump...

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Why Amy Adams May Have to Sit This Oscar Year Out...

The news of Amy Adams winning the NBR delighted many and also stirred up the usual "The Film Experience hates her!" complaints in the commentary. We do not. Being frustrated by an actor's ubiquity and dullness at one particular annual event is not the same as hating them or their work. Amy Adams is a very fine actress. She has given many delightful performances, two of which would have even made non-controversial Oscar wins had she managed to actually nab the statue (Junebug or The Fighter).

Amy Adams (5), Albert Finney (5), and Glenn Close (6) are the living actors with the most Oscar nominations who have never won.

And it's true that she's quite amazing in Arrival, serving as the audience vessel to in two simultaneous and important ways that the movie couldn't succeed without: she's awestruck by what she's watching (she's our eyes and surely our facial expressions in the dark); apart from that awe she's emotionally and intellectually engaged with the events in order to grapple with them and suss out meaning which is what the audience is always doing when they're watching grand films that demands that they pay attention with both their heart and their mind.

But for all of that I don't think she's making the Oscar lineup and here's why...

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