April Foolish Predictions: Setting the Table for "Best Picture"

by Nathaniel R

Is it anticlimactic to start our annual blindfold guessing with Best Picture? Of course! Does it make sense? That, too! You all know the drill. If a film has Best Picture heat they have a leg up in every single category, whether or not they deserve it in that particular category. Best Picture heat means that people end up aware of and actually screening your movie. If you think about it, that’s half the battle. So as we stumble foolishly into April prophecies in all categories, roughly ten months before Oscar nominations will even roll around (January 17 next year), we have to set the major playing field first. 

We call these April Foolish Predictions because who can possibly know a thing in April?!? Last year at this time nobody would have seen Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest emerging as major Oscar titles. They were already tipped for Cannes, of course, but Cannes and Oscars are very different contests, despite what ended up happening last season. The increasing globalization of the Oscar race makes predicting even harder (we love a challenge!) because who can possibly know which of the hundreds of non-English language titles vying for global attention at festivals will catch the English-language audience’s fancy in a big way? It stands to reason that a non-English language picture will factor into the race again but we’ll have to wait for festival buzz on that front to narrow it down from hundreds of options to a few.

Anyway here are 15 pictures we think could enter the awards conversation...

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Which acting nominee will be back again quickly?

by Nathaniel R

It's become something of a tradition here at TFE to guess which just-celebrated actor will be back soonest for another Oscar season. Last year at this time you (collectively) guessed that Cate Blanchett (29%), Michelle Williams (15%), Paul Mescal (15%) and Barry Keoghan (9%) would be the quickest to return. Nobody returned immediately but of those four only Barry Keoghan (Saltburn) seemed like a real possibility this time around.  But his film and even his performance were divisive so that happens. 

Time to vote again, which of the 20 stars recently celebrated will be back shortly? Make your case in the comments section.

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"Best Picture" contenders will now have to play more theaters!

Extremely exciting if ‘too little too late?’ news from the Academy this week. Best Picture contenders will be required to play in multiple markets starting in 2024. Longtime readers will note that we’ve been complaining about how easy it is to qualify for the Oscars for the entire lifespan of the site. The Academy has stated over and over again that they believe in the moviegoing experience and yet they have perpetually encouraged  the “one week only in a tiny theater” practice of competing without actually being available to 95% of people who might be interested. Long before the streaming wars made things a lot fuzzier the Academy wasw rewarding this audience-unfriendly practice. We’ve seen the slow erosion of interest in the Oscars from the moviegoing public over the years and it’s hard not to assume that the two things are related. 

Finally the Academy has decided that distributors need to make more of an effort. So now Oscar hopefuls will be required to commit to a theatrical expansion in at least 10 of the top 50 markets within 45 days of their initial release (a couple of those markets can be international)... 

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Red Flag Alert: "Wicked" will now be two movies long!

by Nathaniel R

Though we've been anxiously awaiting the Wicked movie for (checks IBDB) 18 years, 6 months, and 6 days, we are suddenly dreading it. We were fairly pleased with the casting and the director choice but this new information is a major red flag. In keeping with Hollywood's money-grubbing franchise mania in which they attempt to wrestle as much money from consumers as possible even if they have to pad the stories or extend them well past their breaking point -- popularized by finales that were cleaved in half to guarantee an extra billion in ticket revenue (see Twilight and Harry Potter) or three movies based on a single book (The Hobbit) -- they've decided to make Wicked a two part movie.

Director Jon M Chu (Crazy Rich Asians, In the Heights) writes...

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