Oscar Chart Updates ~ What's Happening to Jackie?
Monday, December 5, 2016 at 12:02PM As promised we're updating the Oscar charts more often. With the first avalanche of awardage the ground is shifting, if not quite seismically. It's been a very good week for three things in particular: Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, and Isabelle Huppert ... and even a good week for, um, Hacksaw Ridge. And you'll see a new lock or two on a few of the charts.
Awards season giveth and awards season taketh away...
It's been not-so-good a week for Fences (not hip enough for critics? pshaw, it's wonderful) and definitely not a pleasant one for Pablo Larraín's potent Jackie. We had assumed its very obvious quality would diffuse its hostility and chilliness making it more palatable to conservative awards voters (in much the same way that Moonlight's spectacular execution is making it accessible to people that might not otherwise be all like "hey gimme that black queer film, now!". We may have been wrong in Jackie's case as awards groups haven't really embraced it. There also seems to be a bit of unexpected resistance out there to the beautifully cathartic adoption drama Lion. That's harder to fathom as its so easy to love in addition to being finely made.
Some of the craft categories feel especially quiet / foggy at the moment (like all the aural categories for example or hair & makeup) but soon we'll have official eligibility lists for scores and songs and more bake-offs in the craft categories which will focus people's attentions.
Updated Charts: INDEX | PIC | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | FOREIGN | VISUALS | AURALS | ANIMATION & DOCS | SCREENPLAYS
P.S. ABOUT CRITICS AWARDS
It's The Film Experience's policy to not cover all the regional awards (especially not when they do nominations before their wins... hmmm. you really think you're worthy of more press releases than the NYFCC and LAFCA and NSFC?!?). It was once fun but now it's too ridiculous with nearly 40 organizations (and new ones each year) and many of them not altogether professional entities. So we'll stick to groups with history before the late 90s OR groups which were needed (like the African American Critics) or whatnot. This is meant as no offense to any city or group -- I'm sure most of them have a great critic or three within them but we had to draw the line somewhere!
Groups We Cover
- New York Film Critics Circle (1935)
- National Society of Film Critics (1966)
- Los Angeles Film Critics Association (1975)
The Holy Trinity. When people talk about someone winning the critics triple or the trinity or what not - as people think Huppert will -- it's these three organizations they're talking about. It's difficult to win all three! - Kansas City Film Critics Circle (1966)
- Boston Society of Film Critics (1980)
- London Film Critics Circle (1980)
- Chicago Film Critics Association (1988)
- Dallas-Ft Worth Film Critics Association (1990)
- Southeastern Film Critics Association (1992)
- Broadcast Film Critics Association (1995)
- San Diego Film Critics Society (1996)
- Toronto Film Critics Association (1997)
- Online Film Critics Society (1997)
- African American Film Critics Association (2003)
- Women Film Critics Circle (2004)
- Gay and Lesbian Entertainment Critics Association (2009)
Reader Comments (66)
I'm sorry Nat, I¡m completeley on board with you of the malfunctioning DOUBT's adaptation. Still, not interfering too much with the play it's not good enough reason. What's the point, then? Make this terrific play available in cinemas for everyone to see? Bravo, then! Mission accomplished. Does it make it a worthwile cinematographic experience? No. Improves upon the theathrical play? No way. "Staying out of the way of the material" isn't a powerful reason enough to NOT create a visual canvas for any movie.If anything, this prove Denzel's not a confident director. (And I think there are much worthier candidates for an Oscar than him)
PS: Denzel shoild be nominated for actor. Suggesting director for him is inconceivable, even by the Academy standards. This will be an actor's movie. The director's branch won't be that impressed imo. The "Haneke slot", he's not. Look for Maren Ade, instead:)
I'm with this guy's here: https://letterboxd.com/davidehrlich/film/fences-2016/
@ chasgoose
I think it's in the top five, sight unseen.
Almost my whole life revolves around Isabelle Huppert now. The rush of serotonin I get when she wins another award...
I get to see a screening of La La Land tonight!
I predict Donald Trump will rig the Oscars to ensure only his favorite films and actors will win.
So Best picture - Hacksaw Ridge, Director - Clint Eastwood, Actor - Steven Seagal, Actress - Stacey Dash .....
I'm in two minds about La La Land, which I haven't seen yet.
On the one hand, I love musicals.
On the other hand, I love musicals where people are really great singers and dancers.
Look at Leslie Odom Jr. So great in his tiny supporting role in "Smash". I was so happy when he won a Tony when he finally had a chance to fully display his talent.
And when the La La Land director said he wanted "imperfect singers" I just feel so exasperated. I don't know if I'll be able to watch Emma Stone kind of sing, kind of dance, kind of act, and not feel cheated of a real triple threat.
@ adri
Well...what I posted after seeing La La Land...
lol you must hate Amy Adams so much. She is at least in top 5 replacing Negga.
I wonder if there is less scrutiny on Casey Affleck since he is white and he settled the two sexual harassment cases against him. They also alleged sexual harassment but not rape. He has always seemed weird to me, which is why he is perfect for the film.
I think Jackie is still definitely in the race. I really don't take much stock in NBR or Critics Choice's top 10 (NBR skews very mainstream, and CC seems to only exist nowadays to predict what they THINK Oscar will like). I think a Golden Globe Drama nomination for Jackie is definitely possible, along with Best Director. I also think Silence will likely shake-up the race and earn Picture/Director nominations and potentially Best Actor for Garfield (his nomination for Hacksaw Ridge just seems insanely odd). Manchester/Moonlight/La La Land seem to be the trifecta that will be dominating critics groups this year.
One film I think is shrinking is Loving. A possible nomination(s) for Negga and/or Edgerton is still certainly possible, but there are just so many more films gaining traction.
Isabelle Huppert is likely to be more successful in the television awards leading up to the Oscars than Charlotte Rampling, Marion Cotillard, and Emmanuelle Riva ever was. Could she pull out the win? That would be fucking amazing. If Elle also gains traction in foreign film, could we also see a surprise Paul Verhoeven nomination in Best Director? He's the type of daring foreign auteur that the director's branch could get behind.
I still maintain that Hidden Figures could be the sleeper surprise of the season. Spencer and/or Monae could definitely sneak in supporting actress due to the fluidity of that category.
Nathaniel, I agree that Bening is not a lock anymore. The category is just too competitive. I expect Henson to start picking up steam in tbe coming weeks. If she makes SAG, watch out.
Hi Nat
Is National Board of Review (NBR) not in the holy trinity of critics?? It started way back together w the NYFCC and gives its 1st individual acting awards in 1945 & I wld tink tt it's followed way more closely by cinephiles than NSFC
^^^NBR aren't critics.
@ Nat
I would say that, of the main critics/precursor award groups, NSFC is the most reliably cinephile, followed by LAFCA (most of the time). They almost never match up with Oscar (prior to this year, when Spotlight won both the Oscar and their award, the last time that happened was with The Hurt Locker) and they often champion more cinephile friendly choices. LAFCA goes back and forth. They mostly tend to line up with Oscar pretty well, but most years, there's some out of nowhere pick that has no chance at even a nomination. Weirdly, NYFCC has gotten a lot more mainstream and Oscar predicting in its choices.
I realize I'm in the minority here, but now that I've seen Jackie, I'm slightly puzzled by the level of enthusiasm which has greeted NP's performance. I have nothing her - she's been impressive on earlier occasions - and I recognize that Jackie herself had a very mannered style of speech and behavior (damn those 1940s finishing schools.) That said, Portman's performance has an artificial, hyper-stylized quality that kept me at arm's lengths - there doesn't seem to be anything beneath the surface except more surface. This may have been intentional on the part of the filmmaker and the actress, but it has a distancing quality that doesn't serve the film as well as it should. I know Portman probably still a lock, since dead-celeb-taxidermy generally carries all before it as far as Oscar nomiators are concerned. I just think Huppert, Adams and Negga are giving by far superior performances. Dare I hope that Portman is the one to fall by the wayside?
@Roger
I'm like you -- I get a natural high when Huppert wins a critics award, and even more so that both times came from NYFCC and LAFCA. But the Sally Hawkins case may be a cautionary tale here -- a LAFCA & NYFCC winner but no Oscar nom.
I search online news on Huppert almost daily. There's been some groundswell of support for L'Avenir now that it opened theatrically a week ago. I wonder if the love for this film will split her Oscar nomination chances. I hope not.
I like Ruth Negga in Loving. I thought she gave a thoughtful performance that is all the more impressive for not resorting to showboat-y acting a less capable actress might resort to. Maybe it is her discipline, or her approach to the craft that prevents her from over-playing her role; maybe it was the director's choice to understate the Mildred Loving characterisation. Whatever it is, I love what Negga has done in Loving and the quiet tone used to frame the story.
Help me, Nathaniel and other Film Lovers!! You are my only hope!
Not really, but I cannot find the answer to this "Jackie"-related question anywhere online. In the second official trailer for the movie (not the one with "Camelot" playing), can anyone here tell me what composition is playing starting at the :50 mark with the choral background and throughout the rest of the trailer. It is not on the Mica Levi soundtrack/score. I love that composition.
The movie was brilliant, btw. I just saw it, and Natalie Portman was a revelation. PERFECT for Jackie. Editing, score, directing, writing. HOW is this only getting buzz for Portman?