All Oscar Charts Updated
Monday, December 25, 2017 at 4:04PM 
Wanting to while away a few minutes between Christmas feasts, clean up, or socializing? Check out the fully updated Oscar predictions. A gain here or there for Get Out, Three Billboards, Victoria & Abdul, Mudbound, and Wonder a big net loss for Darkest Hour and various tinkering. Meanwhile Oscar voting doesn't even start until January 5th so here comes the last big push for campaigns to get those screeners watched and the movies talked about!
Would Be Totally Confusing If It Were Still 5 Only, Right?: Picture
Will Hurt From the Inevitable Snubs: Director and Original Screenplay
Outcome Still Feels Quite Cloudy: Foreign Film, Adapted Screenplay, Animation and Docs
Locked But For "Never Underestimate Judi Dench" Factor: Actress
Precursors Shook 'Em Up: Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress
Anyone's Guess: Visuals and Aurals
Reader Comments (44)
Woody Allen made his best movie of the last 15 years in the wrong year...
My thoughts on the big 5
Picture
The first 8 seem about right
Actress
I can't see Judi Dench breaking in, although I would be happy if she did
Actor
Will Timothée Chalamet win out over Gary Oldman?
I wonder about a Daniel Day-Lewis nomination, could Washington or Hanks push him out? It really is a puzzle to me why the Academy keeps shutting Tom out.
Supporting Actress
Seems a more open category, but surely Octavia Spencer has a shot here
Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer is seeming more and more likely, and also Armie Hammer, but who gets dumped
Meryl Streep not getting her nomination will feel like the backlash worked, getting in will be like a "Meryl, We Are With You". I think the backlash will not have influence. Good or bad.
Judi Dench will be in and once more Jessica Chastain will be out.
I am surprised you have Margot Robbie as a lock. If Judi replaces someone more deserving I would be shocked. She could do that performance in her sleep and probably did. I also think Streep is in because I hear she knocks it out of the park in The Post. Happy holidays
I too feel Robbie misses but for Williams then again Dench is always a threat.
Top 5 leading men seem sure but could Hanks finally get over his non nominated hump,I still have doubts about Kaaluya nominating him over big guns like Lewis and Washington wouldn't have seemed possible a few months ago and he could still loose out in the end
Manville is my Marcia Gay Harden pick for supporting actress,they owe her since 2010,Chau is that one person from their film who gets everything then is shut out in the end,I see Octavia happening or KST more than her.
Can Ridley Scott get a shock nod,directors seem to really admire what he did.
I think armie hammer sneaks in over Stulburg or Harrleson
I just hope you are wrong with McDonut in Director. It is the less subtle of the 8 in contention by a long shot. I don't know if this is on purpose but the film "supposed" strenghts are in the performances and the writing. I hope somehow Sean Baker sneak in. You see the Florida Project and Billboards back to back and there's no way he's more deserving than Baker or, at least, 7 of the projected nominees. That cannot happen. Usually, the director's branch are more high art than the serviceable Irishman's shots. Hell, Steven Soderbergh did a much better work with the flat suburban canvas of Erin Brockovich. Just because you set your film in rural America doesn't mean you have to make it "ugly"
My call on the big eight.
Picture: Yep.
Director: Yep.
Actor: Hanks over Day Lewis.
Actress: Yep.
Supporting Actor: Plummer's film doesn't quite have the reviews to help him make it all the way. Honestly, I think Hammer, Stuhlbarg or "The Shannon Surprise" making a hat trick is likelier.
Original Screenplay: Yep.
Adapted Screenplay: I don't think that's quite right, but this category is so freaking impossible this year. (1. Call Me By Your Name. 2. Mudbound. 3. The Disaster Artist. 4. Molly's Game. 5. Wonder. 6. Wonder Woman. 7. Victoria & Abdul. 8. Logan.)
I think Get Out will not get nominated for Best Picture. And I see its chances at best actor iffy.
I could totally see Actress going like this:
Critics Choice: Hawkins
SAG: McDormand
GG Drama: Streep
GG Comedy: Ronan
and the Oscar lineup being:
Streep
Ronan
McDormand
Robbie
and a surprise nom for BENING snubbing Hawkins.
I'd trade Blige for Manvile in Supporting Actress.
Would be great to see a nom for Lois Smith.
#hopefulthinking
I thibk Gary Oldman’s win seems less and less of a sure thing now, if he loses at the Globes ( which is very very likely- he maynot even showup because if previous things he has said) and the critics choice awards ride the critical love wave with Timothée- we may be looking at history in the making.
I think Get Out will not get nominated for Best Picture.
They have 10 possible slots. It's in.
Merry Xmas everyone!!!
Hope u all hav a wonderful long weekend.
Here's my take:
Actress :
I tink the lock is Hawkins, Ronan n McDormand. Robbie shld be at the 4th position n Meryl is at the dangerous 5th, facing off fiece competition fr Dame Judi n Chastain. Sad tt Stone will be overlooked for a perf tt is betta than La La Land.
Actor:
Oldman n Chalamet is the lock here n I tink Franco n Kaluuya will get in, tt left the last spot, a fight btw Hanks n Day-Lewis. If the academy wanna make up for the past snubs, Hanks will get in but i can't see them passing over Day-Lewis in his last great role.
Supp actress:
Metcalf n Janney is the lock n Hunter n Blight the defaults.
I'm an Asian n I'll b v happy if Hong Chau do get nom but I'm still hoping Manville can sneak in here. From wat i heard, she really steals the scenes she's in
Supp Actor:
Again I agreed w the top 4, but I'll switch Stuhlbarg w Hammer for the last spot as the latter is getting more buzz n has the advantage o being a co-lead.
Director:
Nolan n Del Toro is the lock n I tink Peele n Gerwig will sneak on the strength o their films being universally loved n ranking v high up thr now. The last spot is a toss up btw Spielberg n McDonagh which I tink the veteran is gonna take it, seeing how divisble Three Billboards is. Pple who luv it really luv it n Pple who dun, HATE it....
I dun tink Luca n Baker can break into the top 5. Call me is too gay n Florida Project too indie.
Picture:
Get Out, Lady Bird, Three Billboards, The Post, The Shape o Water, Call Me by Your Name, Dunkirk, The Florida Project all seems the most likely.
Darkest Hour may hav fallen in stock but i tink it'll still get in maybe at the 9th position. I tink The Big Sick will get the 10th spot, if there is one, over Mudbound.
The SAG shutout of The Post had be confused but I am hoping that not enough of the voting body saw it- hoping for nominations in 5-6 range ( hopefully more) but I think Best Picture, Best Actor ( Hanks over Franco) Best Actress ( Streep, no Dench- though not sure why Robbie is such a lock?), Best Director and Screenplay will be there.
“McDonut” is the dumbest thing I regularly see in these comments since all posts by /3rtful.
Agree with the nominees in best picture. So sad to see Call me by your name so low but it seems lately so. I originally though the oscar was going to be between Call me..., The shape of water, Lady bird and Get out. Right now I believe it's gonna be Get out with Lady bird as a long shot.
Is Spielberg really a lock? Although he might be nominated, I really hope either Luca or Greta get nominated over him. Actually I want them both nominated. Del Toro, this is your year.
I don't understand how Robbie is a lock and Ronan isn't. Really wish Ronan for the win this year. It seems those five will be at the oscars.
Why don't we get a little risky on best actor and put all our money on Chalamet? I believe he's taking the gold this year unless he has a lack of charisma on interviews or award speechs. Is Oldman really campaiging? Has he ever? I don't think he'll promote his picture hard as Chalamet will or is.
Also wish Call me by your name gets stronger in the few weeks left to oscar nominations. Merry Christmas to TFE community!
Okay but who will WIN Actor and Actress? Could it possibly be the babies, Ronan and Chalamet?
Does it look like Darkest Hour is sort of having the same trajectory as Jackie to anyone else? I think Chalamet's closer than people are giving him credit for - hell, I see some websites predicting *him* as the snub. Crazy talk.
Actress is so scary, even if The Five feels a little impenetrable. I'd hate a Dench nomination, and I don't know if Oscar would necessarily snub Meryl for her. Would Dench bump any of the young actresses, and if so, which one? The Post missing SAG is so weird, but I don't know if that correlates to *Meryl* missing.
So few supporting contenders feel like real locks in their categories. The 3-5's could easily be swapped with any of the next five people and it'd make about as much sense to me. Did SAG and the Globes just make idiosyncratic choices or are they more predictive than I'm giving them credit for? I'd be shocked if either line-up matched with Oscar.
Hong Chau better get in.
When are the Oscar ballots due? After the Golden Globes. If yes, second Craver above. Spot on.
Jan. 12 – Oscars: Nominations Voting Closes
Call Me By Your Name once so strong, like Dunkirk, is losing its power - what is incredible because it was the most anticipated Oscar film of this season; even those who didn't see it think that saw it. Armie Hammer, so sure months ago, is today a doubt. Now I can see Timothee Chalamet's name not being said in the nominations day. What happened to Carol can happen again. Who is to blame?
man things looked like they'd be boring for a minute but this Oscar season has been bonkers hasn't it? First time in years where Im honestly not at all sure about any of the categories.
This oscar season has been the most exciting for years!!! None of the big categories are tied up yet. I love it.
Ronan and Chalamet are our king & queen this year, that's my NGNG prediction - and how great would that be, the new generation reigning supreme, and deservedly so :)
So so happy Kaaluya is making it in, and I really think Get Out could go all the way and take best picture. I loved Dunkirk, don't get me wrong, but how exciting and refreshing to see Get Out win over more traditional war movies and biopics.
Have an awful feeling it's Hawkins who gets bumped out of best actress, she's not been campaigning at all?
In a race as tight as this one I do not think any of the women are locks for a nomination in Best Actress. Four of them are in BP frontrunners, virtually unheard of, the other one has the transformative role and is the young ingenue and Dench on the sidelines with a bio role in a huge indie hit is always a threat for that group of voters who will stick with her no matter what.
In a race where we can't even figure out who's winning (and right now arguments for the top 5 could be made), I can still see any of them being surprisingly left off while Dench sneaks in.
Agreed with supporting actor and actor actually. Supporting actress feels ripe for a surprise. And I think it will be Manville.
PROMETHEUS got a visual effects nod, btw.
There are so many great contenders in thr 4/5/6/7/8 positions that it'll be so disappointing to see the likes of Gerwig/Reese/Guadagnino/Baker miss in director, Haddish/Chau in supporting actress and others all miss out for more standard nominees. That director category is frighteningly close to being all straight white men (if you consider del Toro to be white) and it's alarming.
Do people really think Get Out is THE best film of the year,maybe it's an American thing 'cos of Trump,it wasn't really a Zeitgeisty film in the UK just a well reviewed original thriller,I just don't understand it.
@markgordonuk
Yes, I think Get Out is the best film not just this year, but in at least 3 years.
And unlike most 'zeitgeisty' films, I'm sure it will be watched and loved and studied and copied 50 years from now too.
I predicted it would win BP as of roughly two months ago. Usually I'm completely wrong with these things. But I'm so glad it's now already become the frontrunner.
This is certainly an unpredictable season. To be this far in without any favourites having coalesced is...thrilling (as it's not dull)...and worrying (as it may end up being dull after all).
I agree that in the five-nominee era, this year would have been confounding as there appear to be seven near-locks for Picture - but that it a sign of how the 5-10 era has changed our thinking: I'm pretty sure that, say, ten or fifteen years ago, we'd have narrowed our thinking to a strongest five (even if wrong) and we wouldn't be counting seven as hot contenders. So I guess all those seven get nominated, unless we're heading for a big surprise and getting the fewest Best Picture nominees since 2008. But I really can't imagine any one of them winning yet.
In this kind of unpredictable year, I find I tend to temper my personal preferences, as so many of them feel as though they could miss out. But if I can make a wish for New Year's, it's to see Call Me By Your Name do well and not fall victim to either the "Can't go there again after Moonlight" syndrome or the "Carol" syndrome.
It's certainly one of the strangest BP nominees and maybe shows that tastes in the Academy are changing.
My point was the reaction to it seems to be based around the way America is divided at the moment in many ways,in the UK it was well praised but didn't resonate quite as loudly.
Have an awful feeling it's Hawkins who gets bumped out of best actress, she's not been campaigning at all?
She has a physical disability which prevents her from doing extensive in person campaigning. I do suspect she's the most vulnerable of the four major nominees to get snubbed more so due to passion and the movie itself rather than her lack of campaigning. McDormand isn't campaigning at all. But she's respected enough and her movie's popular enough to get in without the glad handling.
This is a really refreshing year. Usually during oscar season there's at least a couple of major contenders that I see pretty much *only* b/c they are contenders or nominees - and not because I particularly want to see them. But this year I genuinely want to see everything, from big budget zeitgeist-y items likeThe Post (hope to see it immediately when it opens here) to wonderful small films like The Florida Project (which is sitting really well with me, 2 weeks later). One thing I disagree w/ Nathanial on is Armie Hammer as a lead. I think his role is comfortably supporting and should he get a nom in that category, that is fine with me. CMBYN is Chalamet's character's story. It's a large supporting role, to be sure.
I think All the Money in the World is the great unknown here. If it takes off look out. Best Director, Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor are already very strong possibilities, with any traction Best Picture and Best Actress are also stealth possibilities. Michelle Williams can never be counted out (and I thought she was pretty riveting in the previews). And my gut feeling is that Sally Hawkins will be this year's "off woman out" following the unfortunate recent precedents of Amy Adams and Emma Thompson, who also seemed like locks.
@cal roth
Totally agree about Wonder Wheel. Not sure it's his BEST movie in 15 years, but it's not deserving of basically being one of the worst reviewed movies he's ever made. And it's a shame that Temple and especially Winslet aren't in consideration for Oscars, nor is the cinematography. Winslet's performance is fantastic and whatever problems I had with the film's script (a few confrontations toward the end don't work for me) and the casting (Justin Timberlake feels out of place, Belushi's performance is uneven), Winslet carries the film.
If you look at the reviews, it's a combination of two things: 1) People criticize the film for being stagey and melodramatic when that is the very point, 2) People bring Woody Allen's personal life into it. People are uncomfortable that the subject matter mirrors Allen's personal life (which is a stretch considering most of his films feature these themes long before Soon-Yi came into the picture), because they disapprove of Allen's personal life choices, the film therefore cannot be validated because doing so validates Allen's personal life choices. It's such messy logic but unfortunately that's where we are at.
A final point about Wonder Wheel is that Amazon decided to release it in December in a crowded field, as opposed to the usual summer time for a Woody release. This hurt the film's awards chances and box office chances. I don't want to be cynical here, but the summer would have helped the film because the limited box office competition wouldn't have been as fierce, and more people would be willing to see Wonder Wheel over, say, Lady Bird or Shape of Water. Also, more people would have had a chance to sit with Winslet's performance and she could have built some buzz. And perhaps the critics wouldn't have been so harsh and would have judged the film as a film, as the Weinstein effect wouldn't have been in full force.
Rant over, but it's unfortunately. Woody makes a movie a year, and of course they're not all going to be masterpieces, but I think Wonder Wheel shows that he's still taking risks, he's still trying new things and pushing himself. An uneven film, perhaps, but still the work of an important artist in cinema. And I wish more cinephiles would appreciate this.
I will be singularly devastated if Harrelson and Rockwell both make it in while Hammer, Stuhlbarg, or both miss out. Three Billboards really did not do it for me outside of McDormand's performance and CMBYN is my #1 by leagues.
I agree that Hawkins is the most vulnerable of the Best Actress contenders, by a long shot. I think The Shape of Water is vulnerable in any number of categories.
If it's as strong as people believe, it should have made the make-up and hair shortlist of 7, it should have gotten a SAG nomination for best cast, and it should have been nominated at the Independent Spirits and the Gothams. All indications are that it isn't beloved the way that Get Out, Lady Bird and Three Billboards are.
Sorry, I meant "odd woman out". I would also like to say for about the 43rd time that I wish that Sally Hawkins were getting all this attention for her exquisite performance in Maudie, but it looks like that ship pulled out of port a long time ago.
I will be so sad if CMBYN goes from the Gotham win and all those Critics Choice and Spirit noms to 3-4 oscar nods. I want to see 7-8 nominations please!!!!
I refuse to get my hopes up about Get Out receiving so many nominations because I just don't trust the Academy voters to go all in for a horror film about racism in America. Nothing about that seems as sure as the precursors and reviews suggest it is and I'm not going to allow myself to be disappointed if the more likely "Here's your Original Screenplay nomination" result happens on nominations day.
It's the same way I don't trust the Animated Feature category not to go to shit this year now that the nominations are determined by the whole academy instead of a segment of the industry. It's gonna be a real nail biter when Boss Baby goes up against Despicable Me 3, Cars 3, The Smurfs Lost Village, and the Emoji Movie for the new "my kid saw it and liked it" category.
Have to agree with Joseph, cineJAB and other CMBYN fans here: for me, it was by far the most important movie experience of the year. And yet its excellence is so delicate. I was moved not only by the scenes that already feel classic (the dance, the war memorial shot, the father’s monologue, the closing scene) but the little things, like the perfect way Armie dismounts his bike or the way Timothée plays the piano and gives that passionate look I’ve seen so often on pianists trying to coax emotion from the instrument. The movie resonated with my inner life in a way no other movie did this year. Movies that I liked but didn’t love, like Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards, seem obvious and lumberingly ambitious by comparison.
@ cal roth and Joseph
Agreed.
I think Kate Winslet in Wonder Wheel is far more deserving than at least three of the Best Actress frontrunners this year.
Not even gonna talk about Storaro or Loquasto...
Let's wait the Bafta!
Maybe the Oscar give us a curveball when we need it.
PFEIFFER will be a surprise nomination for MOTHER 👍
Yes Yes Yes To the people who have embraced Wonder Wheel and Kate Winslet's performance in it !