Oscar Chart Updates - Everything!
Monday, July 31, 2017 at 10:00AM 
The Oscar Charts are all freshly updated (but for the second two pages of foreign film submissions which will go up very soon). It's an exciting time because before the fall festivals hit and while we're still contemplating the highlights of the year's first seven months, it seems like anything's possible. That feeling will soon dissipate of course but for now, (almost) anything goes. Biggest gains this update go to The Papers, mother!, The Big Sick, and Wonder Wheel. Meanwhile Wonder Woman enters several charts, though not with much in the way of current predictions as it gears up for a campaign. Dunkirk solidifies pre-release Oscar faith now that people have layed eyes on it en masse. Taking the biggest hit this time is Detroit tas it gears up for wide release but is proving divisive and controversial. Our initial hunch/faith in The Snowman (due primarily to the director) dissipates with its somewhat generic thriller trailer.
And here's the wonderfully opaque teaser for mother! which might be exactly the kind of thing that works in acting categories (where psychological horror is sometimes popular if the film is a hit) so I've had to boost Jennifer Lawrence up in the Best Actress chart... not sure what I was thinking to so undervalue her previously...
Check out the charts and report back, won'cha?
• INDEX • PICTURE • DIRECTOR • ACTRESS • ACTOR • SUPPORTING ACTRESS • SUPPORTING ACTOR • VISUAL CATEGORIES • SOUND CATEGORIES • SCREENPLAYS • ANIMATED FEATURES • FOREIGN SUBMISSIONS PT 1
Reader Comments (36)
I've just seen a teaser trailer for mother! and it looks really good. It seems Lawrence is going for a fifth nomination. In fact, I think it could earn nominations in all acting categories (Bardem & Lawrence in lead, Harris & Pfeiffer in supporting). Of course it has to live up to the hype first, not to mention the fact that its early release might hurt its chances. But it'll be shown at some festivals, which may indicate they believe in it as an awards player.
I'd love to see Dee Rees nominated for director. Not just because finally another woman, and the first woman of colour at that. But the director of PARIAH, too!
Not sure I'm feeling WONDERSTRUCK, but curious you left it out of score. I dunno.
I'm really curious what will happen to CALL ME BY YOUR NAME. I would personally be genuinely surprised if it did better than CAROL. It's so serene and less period-centric as that one plus the age thing could rub some the wrong way. But then maybe the demographics of the Academy changing in just these two years will help it.
Based on that trailer, mother! Looks like an horror movie. Don't know if it will break through that barrier at the Oscars.
At least there was a glimpse of Pfeiffer.
I know it's a genre movie, but think you're seriously underestimating The Shape of Water. It's Fox Searchlight's big push this year and unlike all of Del Toro's movies since Pan's Labyrinth, it's getting a festival release and with a December release a clear campaign and awards push. Indicating faith in the project. I'm currently predicting it for Picture and have Del Toro up there as an alternate for Director.
I'm so excited for mother! I know JLaw has become a divisive figure, but it's Aronofsky, Pfeiffer, Bardem, Harris, and Kristin Wiig has a part as well. Who wouldn't be enticed?
The teaser for mother! is exactly the right amount of plot breadcrumbs to sprinkle in without giving too much away and while still creating irresistible tension. Count me in.
Steve Man -- i hope I am. I'm really looking forward to it. But I maintain that december is often a bad move for genre pictures. Look what happened to A MONSTER CALLS last year when it abandoned its October berth stupidly and then no one cared about it by the glut of December
Oh my goodness, Kristin Wiig is in mother!? It looks so good.
I'm glad you moved up Lawrence, but she should really be in the top tier. Also, if Judi Dench gets nominated for Victoria and Abdul, I will be so bored and disgusted. People complain about Streep, but come on, Streep getting nominated for playing Kay Graham in a Spielberg movie >>> Dench getting nominated for playing a queen in a Frears movie.
I don't know what you're seeing, but that teaser screams anything but Oscar. The only thing that's giving me hope for this is Aronofsky's Black Swan (and that was a psychological thriller).
Suzanne -- but we don't know this. Nobody has seen both performances!
Y'all sleeping on Miranda Richardson in Stronger.
I never watch trailers. They either give too much away or totally sway from the actual
Storyline.
I do want this movie to be good. I like the director a lot and I love the actors Keeping my fingers crossed..
Consider ALL the (expected) good movies on the Horizon, I think is to early to predict anything. And this year could be like 2013 was: a lot of great work. Many with a single or two nominations on the Oscars. 'Cause there where to many good work to aknowledge.
But, today, I would love to see work and people not awarded nominated.
Example:
Best Picture
Dunkirk
mother!
Blade Runner 2049
Mundbound
Call me by your Name
Phantom Treath
Detroit
The Shape of Water
Wonder Wheels
The Killing of a Sacred Dear
Battle of the Sexes
The Snowman
Something tells me that Denzel Washington really wants to join the three-peaters club (his disappointment at losing this year was quite evident), so I think we may be seeing a lot more prestige output from him in the near future.
Looking at your current tier-one Best Actress predictions, I initially thought, "If that winds up being the actual line up, then the winner will become a two timer." Then I realized that Bening still is without her first [insert tear here].
I love Girls Trip and think Tiffany Haddish is a hoot in it, but she's not quite there as an actress for me to want her to be nominated -- not that I'd be angry per se if she were.
The best thing about mother! so far is we know so little except Pfeiffer is in with some other actors,i'm dreading too much info getting out there,Get Out was almost ruined 'cos of that final chapter reveal.
Why is the title lower case and with a !
Maybe it's my personal prejudices getting in the way, but I think the self-conscious look-at-me aspects of Lee Smith's editing in Dunkirk may count against it come time for nominations.
It seems the 3 time structure is bearing the brunt of any criticism towards the film at the moment and that's when's it's at the forefront of everyone's mind.
mark -- i have no idea. that's just how it is
bjt -- i see what you're saying but i have been trying to train myself not to let such things get in the way of predictions. for example i nearly always think the sound mixing if not the sound editing is a problem in Nolan pictures (since it's so often hard to hear the dialogue) but that doesn't stop Oscar from nominating his movies in that category :)
It'll make sense once we've seen the film.
Burwell may even win score. There's a 20 minute segment in Wonderstruck with no dialogues, score only. He was singled out in every review in Cannes.
"Detroit as it gears up for wide release but is proving divisive and controversial."
But wouldn't that also kind of describe Bigelow's last - Zero Dark Thirty? And even though she was infamously snubbed for directing, it did manage a bunch of noms, including picture, actress, and screenplay.
Detroit has many passionate raves, and it has the stamp of IMPORTANT and RELEVANT attached to it. If opened well in limited release this past weekend, so if it has a better than expected wide release, I think it could very well be a contender.
I am just going to say I'm glad Amy Adams doesn't have a potential Oscar movie this year. That would be an undeniable sign of the Apocalypse.
May the odds be ever in the favour of all these contenders. The competition is fierce.
Do not want Insufferable Jlaw getting yet another Oscar nomination for MOTHER!. Sadly, am already resigning myself to it...
Is anyone other than me super intrigued at how coy afronsky has been about Pfeiffers role in the film? There just seems to be something so deliberate about not putting her name on the poster and literally putting one shot of her in the trailer after all the fan fair of her being in it in the first place. It's possible this was discussed on here already, but if anything the total lack of pfeiffer in the marketing is making me more excited.
I know it is a controversial topic and that the real chances are minimal, but should not be Andy Serkis at least considered for 'War for the Planet of the Apes'?
Peter Callahan - maybe Pfeiffer just has a tiny role? hoping thats not the case, but would not shock me.
Peter & LaLa -- I'm totally suspecting that it's a role about the size of Barbara Hershey's in Black Swan -- aka impactful but short. Hoping its bigger than that but that's what i'm expecting.
Someone said this is Darren's take on Rosemary's Baby. Since I haven't seen that movie I can only assume Pfeiffer is the little woman who earned an Oscar for that movie.
/3rtful - "the little woman" haha, that's the great Ruth Gordon! She was great in it, you must watch it, soon! And don't get me started on Mia Farrow. So good.
Nathaniel - as long as it's larger than the Winona Ryder role, if not....Darren, you in danger, girl.
Please please as you are trying on pfieffer for size in supp actress , please just put ms close up in tier one on the next round of predictions - if only to see her in tier 1 and pretend we are back in the late eighties ..... ( sitting in the dark flicking light switches on and off until you do )
I'm not that bullish on Mudbound's Oscar chances...not because of quality, but I just don't see the Oscars rolling over for streaming movies without a theatrical release. Beasts of No Nation should've had an easy supporting actor get for Idris Elba, but I think its Netflix distributor burned its chances.
What about James Franco in The Disaster Artist as a Best Actor contender? A24's gonna campaign hard and if something as outre as Spring Breakers was anywhere near the conversation, a more mainstream dramedy that's gotten rave advance reviews will definitely enter it.
Also GKids just announced they're releasing the new pseudo-Ghibli film Mary and the Witch's Flower, so that's automatically one of the major contenders for Animated Feature: http://variety.com/2017/film/festivals/gkids-mary-and-the-witchs-flower-1202512303/
Nathaniel, Brazil has just made its official submission for Foreign Language Film and the selected was BINGO: O REI DAS MANHÃS (something like BINGO: KING OF THE MORNINGS), freely inspired in the character of Bozo The Clown (in Brazil, performed by Arlindo Barreto). Probably it's not gonna be this year for us again... The film didn't show up in any big festival and didn't win anything not even in Brazil.