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Saturday
Jan202018

Final Oscar Predictions in Every Single Category!

by Nathaniel R

If only we had been able to devote more time to each category leading up to the nominations. Next year, my friends. Life, a cruel mistress this winter, had other plans this year. But we'll do better about diving into the nominees. As with most pundits I'm expecting The Shape of Water to be the nomination leader, but I don't think it will be setting any records as some are suggesting. The support for it seems less feverish and more pleasant. At least from my perspective. It can expect a big haul but not every single category. On the opposite side of the Best Picture spectrum is The Big Sick, the only potential nominee that could also be entirely shut out since it's hovering on the edges of its most nominatable categories: Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actress 

So let's break it down by category shall we? We're just listing the basics here but each link will take you to that category's full chart with much more information and the pretty pictures. As always we'll be frantically updating every single chart on nomination morning (January 23rd). So be here frequently this week, pretty please...

FULL INDEX IF YOU'D RATHER LOOK AT A VISUAL CHART

BEST PICTURE

  • Dunkirk
  • Get Out
  • I Tonya
  • Lady Bird
  • The Post
  • Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards

and if there's 8-10 nominees

  • Call Me By Your Name
  • The Big Sick
  • Phantom Thread

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Guillermo del Toro
  • Greta Gerwig
  • Jordan Peele
  • Martin McDonagh
  • Chris Nolan 

This is the exact DGA list which almost never happens. If there's an upset I expect either critical darling Sean Baker (The Florida Project) or famed auteur Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) to kick Gerwig or Nolan out even though in my heart of hearts what I want is for Sean Baker to kick McDonagh out. Please to note: I don't mean this as a knock on McDonagh who everyone is piling on right now and I like to be nice... just that Baker has never been recognized by Oscar voters and he's such a unique voice in the cinema and he's a true DIRECTOR unlike McDonagh who, even at his best, is still primarily a writer.

BEST ACTRESS

  • Sally Hawkins
  • Frances McDormand
  • Margot Robbie
  • Saoirse Ronan
  • Meryl Streep

Each year it seems like Meryl Streep is not going to happen. As in 'Surely with ___ and ___ right there they're not going for Streep again are they?' Yet something always shifts to give Streep back the edge. It appears that Streep is vulnerable given that The Post isn't truly about its characters but its theme and though she's very good in it, Streep fatigue is real. But, you know, she's tough to beat. Jessica Chastain has been coming on strong for Molly's Game and Annette Bening got a last minute FYC from BAFTA for Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool. Further our In the Fade keeps winning Best Foreign Film prizes suggesting that had they bothered to actually release it in theaters in the calendar year and campaigned it like other movies, Diane Kruger might have had a legitimate shot at Hupperting herself right into the five!  If only one of those women was still being talked about, I'd suppose Streep was in danger but with all three of them there, I don't think we're in for much of a surprise with the Oscar lineup. 

BEST ACTOR 

  • Timothee Chalamet
  • Daniel Day-Lewis
  • James Franco
  • Daniel Kaluuya
  • Gary Oldman

What a strange journey with the category this year! Tom Hanks (The Post) and Denzel Washington (Roman Israel Esq) were coming on strong with early precursors before all but vanishing from conversations. Jake Gyllenhaal initially came on strong because he was super brilliant in Stronger in which he plays a disabled terrorist victim. But with the Academy slowly turning against more typical Oscar Bait work, that trope didn't seem to keep Gyllenhaal's name in the mix even though he's far far far overdue for some Oscar love. Then Franco came storming in with some comic mimicry that got everyone excited for some reason. Then he was accused of sexual misconduct and people decided he wasn't happening. But that was toward the end of Oscar voting so I'm sure he'll be fine.

Frankly the conversations about Best Actor have been bewildering. I will mourn for Gyllenhaal being snubbed yet again for stellar work.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Mary J Blige
  • Hong Chau
  • Alison Janney
  • Lesley Manville
  • Laurie Metcalf

Even more baffling are the supporting categories and for opposite reasons. Supporting Actress is confusing because the race never narrowed down in a typical way leaving about 8 women still standing at the end. By standing we mean that they or their films, were still being talked about a lot at voting time even when precursors zigged and zagged. We're left to guess who might swing enough passion votes with the right combo of recency and greatness. So I've taken two bets that feel risky: Hong Chau and not Octavia Spencer (in a better liked film) prevailing for the fifth slot. Here's an even bigger risk: presuming that Lesley Manville's protective British iciness pushes Holly Hunter's protective Southern warmth out at the last minute in this imaginary nomination battle between a rigid sister and a really upset mother. (I have wanted Manville to have an Oscar nomination for so long but I'll be sad if it comes at Hunter's expense. But you can't have everything!)

These guesses could be totally wrong given that the among of passion that anyone inspires on ballots remains unclear past the twin giants of Metcalf and Janney. In the end will Tiffany Haddish and Octavia Spencer and Holly Hunter show up instead of the three I predicted? Possibly! 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Willem Dafoe
  • Richard Jenkins
  • Woody Harrelson
  • Sam Rockwell
  • Michael Stuhlbarg

Supporting Actor is a 180˚ in that virtually only two players were ever fawned over sufficiently to know that they'll be honored when the nominations were read out: Rockwell and Dafoe. Since Jenkins and Harrelson are in frontrunning films and have been showing up in the precursors we can assume they're safe even as we're left wondering if the passion is really there for either? But the fifth spot is a complete mystery. The Globes went with Plummer for All the Money in the World  and Armie Hammer for Call Me By Your Name  (but our gut is that both inclusions were helped on by their starpower a commodity more value at Globes than at Oscars), SAG went with Steve Carell for Battle of the Sexes  (who doesn't feel like a real option given the absence of discusson of the film) and the Critics Choice added Michael Stuhlbarg for Call Me By Your Name  and Patrick Stewart for Logan  as two more options. I'm sticking with my initial guess that the fifth slot goes to Stuhlbarg for Call Me By Your Name  because his performance is less divisive than his co-star Hammer's and because he's been in so many films in the past several years. It feels like it's time for the industry to honor him; if not this season expect it to happen real soon.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

  • The Big Sick
  • Get Out
  • Ladybird
  • Phantom Thread
  • Three Billboards

A truly tough call. I'm assuming Paul Thomas Anderson's fan in the writing branch will speak up despite the incredible competition which might cause something "locked" like The Shape of Water (which might arguably be called a visual triumph first and foremost). Something has to give and is it insane to think it might be The Post, too? The Big Sick has been fighting for this nomination with a good narrative (husband and wive memoir) for a long long time but it's probably most vulnerable to be overthrown should either of those big films or something scrappy and new like I Tonya rise. TRULY TOUGH CALL

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • Call Me By Your Name
  • The Disaster Artist
  • Logan
  • Molly's Game
  • Mudbound

Another confusing one. If Logan, which has revved back up with guild precursors makes it that's the first superhero movie ever honored for writing. I'm tempted to suggest that The Disaster Artist is vulnerable since its so 'copy The Room' in its joke construction BUT none of the other possibilities seem to have any heat. But IF there's a surprise it's one of these four I think: Wonder, Lost City of Z, or Victoria and Abdul.

COSTUME DESIGN

  • Beauty and the Beast
  • I Tonya
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Post
  • Wonder Woman

Come thru gold caftan, come thru! I think The Post shows up here despite missing at the CDG. The CDG isn't too helpful anyway since they have three categories. It's not uncommon that one thing they ignored gets nominated and I'm guessing that's The Post. The risky choices here are two: I Tonya and Wonder Woman... but I think the costumes being more memorable than the fine but hardly focused-on costumes of Shape of Water, and Darkest Hour. (But I'm still surprised that Victoria and Abdul never gained traction here and could see it as a surprise nominee that shocks prognosticators)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • Mudbound
  • Shape of Water

Yup, that's the American Society of Cinematoraphers List. Their list doesn't usually transfer 5/5 to Oscar but I think if The Post is at all shaky for Best Picture (which it might be), it misses here. I'd like to think that Call Me By Your Name would place but probably not showy enough despite the gorgeous summer in Italy.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • Beauty and the Beast
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Dunkirk
  • Shape of Water
  • The Post

Though I normally adore the work of Sarah Greenwood I'd sooner she wasn't nominated for Beauty and the Beast... but Oscar predictions aren't wish-lists and Most Design is often a big plus. Surprise nominees that wouldn't be all that surprising: Murder on the Orient Express and Darkest Hour. But it's a pity people dislike Downsizing so much because Stefania Cella's production design is rather amazing (and also fall sunder the Most Design umbrella).

FILM EDITING

  • Baby Driver
  • Dunkirk
  • Get Out
  • Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards

The famous statistic is that it's nearly impossible to win Best Picture without a Best Editing nomination. Every once in a while something not in the Best Picture race competes here if the achievement is showy enough and thus the Baby Driver prediction. From this five I'm least certain about Three Billboards and Get Out. Though it deserves this nomination easily, Get Out might falter here in particular if the Academy is at all iffy on the movie.  And shouldn't Three Billboards 's divisiveness have made it shakier in the craft categories than it appears to have been in the precursors? If either of them miss I'd expect The Post, I Tonya, or Molly's Game (Most Editing) to take their place.

VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Dunkirk
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
  • Star Wars The Last Jedi
  • War for the Planet of the Apes

Is it stupid to leave Shape of Water out here? Perhaps it's stupid. But the only one of these predictions that feels vulnerable to me at all is Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 (and AMPAS really liked the first one) and it's got the Most Visual FX factor that Shape of Water decidedly has not. 

MAKEUP AND HAIR 

  • Darkest Hour
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
  • Wonder

I just have no idea. This category messes me up every year. Perhaps Bright or I Tonya will take the place of Guardians? The only lock feels like Darkest Hour (watch it not be there then on Oscar Nom morning)

ORIGINAL SCORE 

  • Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)
  • Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
  • Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)
  • The Post (John Williams)
  • Shape of Water (Alexander Desplat)

I'm expecting a return to their favorite composers like Williams, Marianelli, Desplat and Zimmer with the addition of one newcomer Jonny Greenwood for Phantom Thread. That said I do think Phantom Thread is vulnerable because it's not critics voting on these things but the Oscar's notoriously insular music branch. If it fails to connect with them, I'd expect Thomas Newman to get his 15 nominations with Victoria and Abdul or John Williams to double dip by being in the mix yet again for another Star Wars movie

SOUND MIXING

  •  Blade Runner 2049
  • Dunkirk
  • Shape of Water
  • Star Wars the Last Jedi
  • Wonder Woman

With genre movies now (slightly) more in favor with Oscar it's going to be harder and harder for less fanciful films to break into this category. For instance I think Get Out deserves a nomination here -- that stirring spoon! -- and I've heard many other people loving on the sound design of Phantom Thread and mother! But my guess is most of these are locked up. Wonder Woman might not be there but I am predicting 2 nominations for it because it's been so much a part of the zeitgeist of the year and ignoring it entirely might feel strange!

SOUND EDITING

  • Baby Driver
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Dunkirk
  • Shape of Water
  • Star Wars the Last Jedi

I was predicting Baby Driver in this category for so long I don't want to abandon it now. But the other films are safer bets.

ORIGINAL SONG

  • Call Me By Your Name "Mystery of Love"
  • Coco "Remember Me"
  • The Greatest Showman "This is Me"
  • Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool "You Shouldn't Look at Me That Way"
  • Mudbound "Mighty River" 

But, you know, nothing is ever safe here. They've stiffed many a supposed frontrunner on nomination morning. We shall see. 

FOREIGN FILM

  • In the Fade (Germany)
  • Foxtrot (Israel)
  • The Insult (Lebanon)
  • Loveless (Russia)
  • The Square (Sweden) 

A truly difficult call. It's easy to imagine any of the 9 finalists in any combination (except for maybe South Africa's The Wound which was obviously the Executive Committee save because it's not typical in any way to Oscar's interests in this category) so I'm ditching Chile's buzzy A Fantastic Woman which is divine but Oscar is weird about LGBT stories; even when they embrace them they don't somehow (see Brokeback Mountain)

ANIMATED FEATURE 

  • The Boss Baby
  • The Breadwinner
  • Coco
  • Despicable Me 3
  • Loving Vincent 

I think only The Breadwinner and Coco are safe. Despicable Me 3 might fall due to it being a sequel. Loving Vincent might fall because the animation branch can get weird about things like rotoscoping and The Boss Baby might fall because who is going to put it at #1? That said 'what would replace any of them?' is the question given this strangely weak year for this category and the fact that many of the strong contenders are foreign and with this category opening up voting beyond just animators, we could see far less foreign films nominated which is truly said because the category says "Best" not "American CGI Action Comedy" which is the only kind of movies that American animators make.

ANIMATED SHORT

  • Cradle
  • Dear Basketball
  • In a Heartbeat
  • Life Smartphone
  • Negative Space

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • Abacus
  • City of Ghosts
  • Icarus
  • Jane
  • Last Men in Aleppo 

It'd be wonderful to see documentary legends like Agnes Varda (Faces Places) and Frederick Wiseman (Ex-Libris) nominated but Oscar has burned us too many times in this category when it comes to the more "auteurist" of documentary filmmakers.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

  • Edith + Eddie
  • Heroine
  • Kayayo - The Living Shopping Baskets
  • Ram Dass Going Home
  • Ten Meter Tower

LIVE ACTION SHORT 

  • The Eleven O'Clock
  • Facing Mecca
  • Icebox
  • The Silent Child
  • Watu Wrote / All of Us

 It'll be interesting to see if Icebox is nominated. The director already signed a deal to make it into a feature film and I'm not sure we've ever had an Oscar nominated short become a live action feature have we? Or am I forgetting something obvious (Whiplash was famously first a short but the short wasn't nominated)

WHAT ARE YOUR PREDICTIONS?
Write yours down and see how you do on Tuesday morning. It's a TOUGH year to predict so you get bragging rights if you do well. 

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Reader Comments (54)

I don't want to live in a world with no Gyllenhaal, Hunter or Hammer at the same time.

January 20, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterBen

I'm wondering if we'll get some shockers in thin categories like Actor and Adapted Screenplay this year.

Could BLADE RUNNER 2049 surprise with lots of craft nominations like the BAFTAs?

Could Villeneuve or Ridley Scott or Joe Wright surprise in Director?

Will Netflix get entirely shut out of the non-Documentary categories again?

So many unanswered questions. Bring on Christmas, I mean nominations, morning!

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterSteve G

CASHBACK was an Oscar-nominated short that went in to turned into a feature!

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn Dunks

I do share the idea that Wonder Woman having no nominations would be weird. Ad if that happens with Logan appearing at least once... Well, thats a party for big box office movies.

I do think The Shape of Water will be the most nominated film.

And call me crazy (or by my name ;)) but I don't think Get Out or Greta for Ladybird are sure things. Safer than in other years? Sure. But still not that safe. I bet on Kaluuya not being nominated tbh.

Oh and The Big Sick. Big mystery.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterPablo

Sadly, I think Stuhlbarg is wishful thinking. Hammer has had more precursor attention, and if they’re really not hot on the film, I think Plummer sneaks in.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterParanoid Android

You say that The Shape of Water has no memorable costumes... but you might be forgetting the fish man costume. What an enormous achievement!

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterNicolas Mancuso

So cynical giving I, Tonya better BP chances than Call Me by Your Name! You could be right though...

I’ll be so bummed if CMNYN misses out on a BP nom, but if I can live through the Carol snub I can live through anything.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterDylan C

My predictions:

Best Pic:
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water (It just won PGA!!)
Three Billboards
( A prayer for The Big Sick, Phantom Thread & some many other great releases this yr)

Best Director:
Guillermo del Toro
Greta Gerwig
Martin McDonagh
Christopher Nolan
Jordan Peele
(Same feel as Nat, It wld be perfect if Baker wld replace McDonagh, but unlikely....)

Best Actress:
Jessica Chastain (Yes, taking a chance on her rather than the Queen..we all need an Oscar break from Meryl once in a while)
Sally Hawkins
Frances McDormand
Margot Robbie
Saoirse Ronan

Best Actor:
Timothee Chalamet
Daniel Day-Lewis
Jake Gyllenhaal (out on a limb tt Oscars will right the snub this time)
Daniel Kaluuya
Gary Oldman
(I tink Franco is far fr safe...the sexual misconduct allegations was published 2 days before voting ends & most voters waited till the last min to do so...I tink it will def hav an impact)

Best Supp Actress:
Exactly the same as Nat's (NGNG!!!)

Best Supp Actor:
Willem Dafoe
Armie Hammer
Woody Harrelson
Richard Jenkins
Sam Rockwell
(ironic tt the two supp actor nom for the same pic is NOT the original pic most o us had earlier envisioned)

Best Org Screenplay:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards
(I,Tonya might sneak in here given its immediate recency)

Best Adp Screenplay:
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound
(Wonder has a good chance too)

Best Foreign Film:
A Fantastic Woman
Foxtrot
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterClaran

I understand Stuhlberg over Hammer, but Armie seems to have been really working hard to promot this film, and I feel really bad for him if he misses again, just like when he was on the Short List in 2010 for "The Social Network".

I don't get the "Lady Bird" love myself, but I will be happy to see Gerwig up there in Director.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterforever1267

I think the bias against Netflix is real - or at the very least I highly doubt Mudbound is at the top of many Academy members’ screeners. Therefore, I don’t remotely think Mary J. Blige is safe nor do I think Rachel Morrison in Cinematography is either.

I’m also predicting a complete Big Sick snub.

I agree with others in that The Shape of Water will lead in nominations.

But what I really hope is that we get SOME kind of shock and surprise in a couple of the big categories - I want to see a Salma Hayek or a Robert Pattinson in best actress or best actor, or The Killing of a Sacred Deer in original screenplay. I want something that shows that the Academy is able to vote on something they have seen and loved throughout the year that they want to reward that doesn’t have a multimillion Oscar campaign behind it.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAaron

I honestly do not "get" the hype for Daniel Kaluuya - love the film and he was a fantastic protagonist ... BUT BEST ACTOR 2017 ??? ... over exceptional work from Gyllenhaal ? That doesn't feel right at all ! But hey - if life would be fair Bening would have her Oscar for "Kids" & Chastain for "Sloane" ... so this year will wrench my heart anyway as I would love to see them all get a nod ... puh !

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMartin

Oh noes Nathaniel - I want Jessica in that best actress line up! But I can certainly agree with your reasoning. So glad to see you pick Ten Meter Tower for the short doc award. It's rad.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterEz

I think you took a big gamble putting Phantom Thread at number 10. Personally I'd argue that either Darkest Hour or Florida would fill that slot. We'll wait and see though :)

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterLee

No guts no glory: Denzel in, Franco out.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered Commentercal roth

What i'm sad about is the performances that didn't catch on early enough in Best Actress Hayek,Stone and especially Winslet have been overlooked.

Best Actor Gyllenhaal,Renner,Bell and Pattinson too

I think supporting actress is open after Janney and Metcalf,KST is in if they love Darkest hour,please no Haddish or Spencer.

S/Actor is probably what you predict Nat but Plummer,Mendohlson or Shannon could surprise us and knock a sure thing like Jenkins out.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

Martin as an actor myself let me tell you Kaluuya had one of the hardest roles to pull off for his film to work as well as it did. Just because it's not typical Oscar bait acting doesn't mean it's not exceptional and 'best'

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterRami

I fell so hard for THE SHAPE OF WATER , it`s weird and stunning, sweet and a breath of fresh air... I`m rooting for Best Film, Director and Actress (yes, HAWKINS is mesmerizing ) feel like McDormand was doing a variation of Fargo , which she won for already, Robbie is great, but who are we kidding? I, Tonya belongs to JANNEY ( in my opinion, an easy and deserved BSA win, sorry Metcalf and Blige), and YES, I agree with some of you guys and would love to see Chastain (once they snubbed her for Miss Sloane, still hurts) or Kruger in the fifith slot. As for the Actors, Oldman and Chalamet seem like the only safe ones , but I`d fill it in with Washington (bad film, unusually restrained performance), Bell and Gyllenhaal, and in a turn of events Gyllenhaal would win. I liked The Disaster Artist a lot , but Franco just irks me , don`t like the guy and thought his performance was ok, not wonderful ( but those cameos...OMG , love them, Efron is great , and please someone write a movie just for Sharon Stone`s character , that I would gladly see it, she manages to steal all her few seconds of screen time), as for Kaluuya, I don`t share the same love almost everyone does for Get Out and he`s certainly not better in it than Bell is in FSDDIL.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterEder Arcas

I think Best Actress is the clearest category we have. Otherwise, it's a total crapshoot this year. There are films that we could have never imagined having traction (horror film about race! Tonya Harding biopic! superhero films! fantasy romance bordering on erotica!) that seem like strong contenders over films that seemed like sure things based on the Academy's track record. Are we really going to get such an odd crop of nominees, however deserving, when the traditional Oscar bait is right there? I don't know.

I'm just not making predictions this year beyond I, Tonya getting in for Makeup. It's makeup and hair based on widely available historical images (a cultural zeitgeist most voters will remember vividly) that also serves as part of the plot of the film. Same with the costumes, but that's an easy get with all the fringe and beading and sparkle sparkle more is more voters.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterRobert G

I think people have forgotten all about Downsizing so can’t umagin Hong Chau in

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterME

I think 5 nominations for The Post feel right. I will say it again- if The Post is nominated for Best Pic, Streep will be nominated. I think people have been talking more about her performance than the others ( Chastain, Bening, Dench) and she is the MVP of The Post.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJamie

Looks like some more whining from Jada Pickett Smith can be expected. Emmys / Television and Tonys / Broadway Offer many more diverse story lines. This is not an AMPAS issue, it's a film industry situation.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJimmy

I’m so tired of reading the dismissals towards Kaluuya’s superlative performance. He had the most challenging male role this year. He walks such a tight rope of emotions interacting with the family, guests, and servants. Go back and watch the tea scene with Keener and then tell me he’s not deriving of a nomination.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJess

For me the performance of the year
Laurie Metcalf.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterDO

I completely do not get the love for Get Out or Jordan Peele so a nomination for him and not one for Luca Guadagnino would in my opinion be a complete travesty. Again no idea why Daniel Kaluuya is in the running for Best Actor, but I can see it happening and Tom Hanks once again missing out.
If there was any room left in the Best Actress line up I think that Jessica Chastain would grab it. Best Supporting Actress has spaces and I'd like to see Holly Hunter and Octavia Spencer fill them, a really long shot would be Kristin Scott Thomas.
Supporting Actor should include Michael Stuhlbarg but I think that Christopher Plummer and Armie Hammer may prove to be stronger. An interesting year, some strong performances and hard to predict is some categories.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJoe (UK)

i have similar thoughts to most posters on this site (a reason that i love to read it, i guess!) so i won't go into specifics, but i'd **love** at least two big snubs and at least two big surprises. i love it when a frontrunner doesn't get nommed just for the shockwaves it sends.

also, i'd love another "dick poop" moment during the announcements... remembering that moment never fails to make me smile.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterCharles O

Feels like an Oscar year that's not as set as it usually is. I'm wondering if Ronan is completely safe in Best Actress. An unexpected nom for Chastain or Bening to cause gasps on nomination morning.

A surprise snub seems likely somewhere and I would bet on either Ronan or Kaluuya.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterReady

Jess. Here here.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterRami

I’m not crazy about Lady Bird and Get Out!, but I want Greta Gerwig (as director) and Daniel Kaluuya nominated.

It’s so sad to see Wonder Wheel out of conversation because of Woody Allen’s controversy. Production Design, costumes and cinematography are breathtaking and Kate Winslet delivered one of the best performances in her entire career.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAntonio

Antonio agree about Kate,such a shame,maybe Dianne,Penelope,Michael,Cate,Mira and Diane should give there Oscars back.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMARKGORDONUK

If CMBYN doesn't get in, I die.
Franco won't make it
Octavia will
And crossing my fingers for Lebanon's first nom!!!!

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterG.ShaQ

Freeheld was a documentary short and turned into a feature. Does that count?

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterEli

Two interesting stats:

1) Since the expansion of Best Picture, only one Best Director nominee has not had an accompanying Best Picture nomination (Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher in 2014).

2) Every Daniel Day-Lewis Best Actor nomination has been paired with a nomination for Best Picture for the film.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterBen

Rami - thanks, I hear you, and will definitely give Kaluuya's performance a second viewing after your comments ! And yes, you are very right, we should be grateful if the Academy finally starts to stir away from typical Oscar bait performances to give outsiders a chance to shine - which hasn't happen as often - in this category !
And honestly I think it is actually fantastic that we are spoilt with choice this year - especially with the smaller movies in the run. So no hard feelings - only for Gyllenhaal - IF - as usual ;-)

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMartin

Not sure if it’s possible, but all five best actresses also being in best picture nominees would be fab.

I am rooting for Hanks over Franco, for obvious reasons.

I wonder if The Florida Project will surprise, and Mudbound and The Big Sick disappoint.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMarie

BEST PICTURE
1. The Shape of Water
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. Dunkirk
5. Get Out
6. Call Me By Your Name
7. The Florida Project
8. The Post
9. The Big Sick
-----------------------------------------
10. I, Tonya

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
2. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
5. Sean Baker, The Florida Project

BEST ACTOR
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
3. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger

BEST ACTRESS
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
5. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
4. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
5. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
4. Mary J. Blidge, Mudbound
5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Lady Bird
2. Get Out
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Big Sick

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. Molly's Game
4. The Lost City of Z
5. The Disaster Artist / The Beguiled

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterEd

A few NO GUTS, NO GLORY picks on my end: Denzel Washington, Jessica Chastain, Michael Shannon, PHANTOM THREAD in Original Screenplay, WONDER WOMAN in Costumes, VICTORIA & ABDUL in Makeup/Hairstyling and Original Score and THE BREADWINNER ("The Crown Sleeps") in Original Song.

I'm also keeping a close eye in Original Song on "Just Getting Started" from HBO's Carl Reiner documentary - it's penned by those Oscar mainstays Alan & Marilyn Bergman and Dave Grusin.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAndrew Carden

Perhaps Margot Robbie is the most vulnerable in Lead Actress and not Streep? In the end I think Streep gets in, as does Gyllenhaal for Lead Actor at the expense of Franco.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterbrandz

I saw a lot more this year than I usually do, so I'm nervous! I am a stand-up comedian so I am really pulling for The Big Sick.

The Globes and the Oscars always have differences in the Best Song category, but my Christmas wish is Mariah Carey and Marc Shaiman gerting in for "The Star" (from the movie of the same name). By itself, it's a little schmaltzy, but in the context of the film, it hits the perfect emotional tone (and can join "White Christmas" and "Baby it's Cold Outside" as Oscar-nominated Christmas songs).

I think we'll get a shocking Supporting Actor coaster nom (like Alan Alda in The Aviator) and I'm going with Tracy Letts in Ladybird.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJakey

I seriously don't understand why Get Out is getting these kinds of considerations. I mean it's a good movie with a neat idea, but so was Final Destination. Where was the Oscar buzz for Final Destination ehh? Yeah, I know there's the whole race aspect, but I don't feel that actually adds anything to the movie really. Replace black people with gay people, or homeless people, or any other more or less marginalized group in society and the movie would work just as well in the same way for the same reason. It just so overhyped it's silly.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAnders

Looking forward to 48 hours, when we can re-read these comments and note/laugh at all the definitive statements ("X is definitely in!", "Y has no chance at al!", "You're completely crazy with that prediction. No way it's happening.")………..

Also…….."McDormand is doing the same thing as FARGO". ??????? Have you not seen either movie? FARGO is all calm and caring and even sweet, whereas BILLBOARDS is all anger and righteousness. I'm not normally one for insults, but only a crazy person would say they're the same. In fact, I think it only goes to highlight the range of McDormand.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterTravis C

NGNG: Tracy Letts for Lady Bird

a la Jackie Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterTravis

Martin no hard feelings at all. In an ideal world both Jake and Daniel get nods this year :-))))

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterRami

I will admit, it will be weird if Meryl is snubbed for THIS performance, particularly since I think she's superb in The Post and is easily her best since Prada.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAaron

@Travis
I would love to see Tracy Letts nominated for "Lady Bird"! Brilliant and underrated performance! I would have him or Lucas Hedges nominated for a supporting male performance in "Lady Bird"... wishful thinking I know, but a good dream

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterEd

Ok...I've just watched The Post, Roman J Israel, Esq and Darkest Hour this weekend, And I've come to this conclusion:

Critics are corrupt and/or bandwagoners and it's a mistake to trust critical consensus entirely. Though a lot of people worked that out when critics praised an utterly mediocre Disney blockbuster in The Last Jedi like it was some sort of masterwork.

The one that was by all accounts supposed to be the "worst" film (Roman J Isreal, Esq) turned out be by far the best. A smart, socially conscious, intellectually demanding character study that could have been made in the 1970's by Hal Ashby or Coppola. With an incredible performance by Denzel Washington at the centre, that should easily be winning the oscar this year. Great screenplay and direction by Dan Gilroy. How critics got this one so badly wrong will by a mystery for years to come. It's as bad as the call critics made on Jonanthan Glazer's Birth.

Darkest Hour and The Post are very similar entities. Generic, studio mandated oscarbait that both seem incredibly dated. Both would have seemed fresh in the 90's, but I don't get the appeal today. Gary Oldman does fine work under the latex, and is the main reason to watch Darkest Hour, but I can already think of half a dozen performances more worthy of the oscar this year . Oldman doesn't have the material or direction to go beyond a superficial performance. It doesn't hold a candle to Albert Finney in The Gathering Storm.

The Post was slightly better. Meryl can be overrated at times, but she's the best I've seen her in awhile. Nuanced, not trying to chew every bit of scenery. A nomination for Meryl would be deserving. But that's as far as it goes. Tom Hanks does some weird growly thing with his voice, and strains hard to act like a macho newspaperman. But it's such a try-hard performance, that you never forget for a minute that Hanks is acting. Streep sort of obliterates him. The rest of the cast is wasted in perfunctory roles. I miss the Spielberg of Minority Report and Catch Me If You Can. He's gone from being an exciting, kinetic director to becoming the modern day Stanley Kramer, with these boring, fuddy duddy preachy dramas.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered Commenternina

There are some cultural and political reasons why The Post is relevant.

It may just be me, but SNL confirmed Jessica Chastain is humorless.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterTom Ford

@nina

That was a great write-up! Your commentary makes me want to give Roman J Israel, Esq a chance. Also, having seen The Post last weekend, I agree wholeheartedly with your assessment of the film as feeling dated, artificial, and far too "overt" in its message. Its tiredness and predictability made me long to return to All the President's Men, an actual great film with a similar premise.

However, I must go against the general consensus and say I could not stand Meryl's performance in this film. Not being a "Meryl hater" by any stretch of the imagination (I've probably watched Out of Africa, Postcards from the Edge, and The Hours 50x each), I found this performance of hers rang completely and utterly false. I've read Katherine Graham's autobiography, watched interviews of hers promoting the book, etc. and nothing of her stoic, no-nonsense demeanor came across in Meryl's depiction. I particularly couldn't stand the voice (she sounded far more like Julia Child again than Katharine Graham) nor the constant feverish looks from side to side (Look! I'm thinking about something!). Ah well. Hopefully Oscar will do the rightful thing and snub the film in all major categories with the exception of the wonderful costumes (Ann Roth can do no wrong) and score (I found it particularly great toward the end).

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterEric

Eh...I beg to differ. Julia's voice was vibrant whereas Katherine's largely monotone. Also, based on what I've read - accounts from her colleagues in the early years - it was stated that she was neither stoic nor take-no-prisoners but a rather mousy nervous furball. It took her some time to bloom into what she stood for - a no-nonsense character taking charge of one of the country's leading papers.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJans

Comments like @Anders are reasons why I can't stand awards season!

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterNikki

I'm sad that Lesley Manville won't be in the Best Supporting Actress lineup this year.

January 21, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterCharlieG

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