Final Predictions: Supporting Actress, Foreign Film, and Sound Categories
Thursday, January 17, 2019 at 12:10PM by Nathaniel R
Expecting a high nomination count for "First Man" even if it misses Best PictureRunning out of time we are! So here are the final predictions for six more categories!
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
We've been over and over this one in our brains, trying to figure out that fifth spot (we don't believe, as some panicky folks do, that Regina King is in any danger of missing for Beale Street). In the end we're defaulting to Claire Foy in First Man who's been there all along. Primarily because she's been there all along and these things have a way of sticking if you're considered solidly in for months, even if you start losing steam toward the end of the season. We expect First Man to have a high nomination count despite predicting it to miss Best Picture and Claire Foy has remained visible all season. Sorry, Margot Robbie...
Meanwhile we're FURIOUS that Elizabeth Debicki in Widows never gained any traction this year since she should have been EASILY battling it out with Regina King in the big leagues. We blame critics for being the foot soldiers of Category Fraud and supporting The Favourite's blockage of this category from real and just stellar supporting options like Debicki.
A nomination for "Burning" would be a first on two levels -- first for South Korea and first honors for Lee Chang-dong. But we don't think it's happening. GrrrrrFOREIGN FILMS
This is a tough call because the category feels too good to be true! We've felt confident about predicting Mexico (Roma), Cold War (Poland), and Japan (Shoplifters) for sometime now but for the other two spots it's tricky: South Korea's critical darling Burning and Lebanon's visceral Capernaum, both from respected filmmakers (Lee Chang-dong and Nadine Labaki) who've never been honored despite previous Oscar submissions in this category, seem to be common predictions for punditry. If all five of those films are nominated foreign-language film will be the single greatest category, qualitatively, at the Oscar ceremony this year! We think, though, that Oscar is likely to default to either Germany (Never Look Away) or Denmark (The Guilty), two countries they respond to very frequently which both have pictures that are well liked and less difficult than South Korea or Lebanon's entries. Tragically we think Burning is going to miss and, flipping a coin, we're choosing Never Look Away as its replacement.
Predicting that Alexandre Desplat gets his 10th nomination for "Isle of Dogs"
SCORE
The two most lauded scores of the year are arguably If Beale Street Could Talk and First Man and we are betting that they both make it in with Alexandre Desplat (an Oscar regular) to score (heheh) with his whimsical and deliciously eccentric score to Isle of Dogs. We'd be surprised if any of those three missed but from there it's a tougher call. The Globes honored Mary Poppins Returns and A Quiet Place and they're both obviously strong contenders though we think only A Quiet Place will prevail and Poppins will have to make do with a Song nomination. For the fifth slot it's a toss up. BAFTA honored BlacKkKlansman and if Oscar follows suit Terence Blanchard will receive Blanchard received a nomination at BAFTA. But we think Ludwig Göransson's popular score for Black Panther will get the last spot. All that said, Score is notoriously hard to predict so watch Mary Poppins Returns, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, and Ready Player One all make the nominations instead. Whoops
SONG
One of the few categories that already has a locked-up winner. That'd be "Shallow" from A Star is Born. The other certain nominees feel like "All the Stars" from Black Panther, and "The Place Where Lost Things Go" from Mary Poppins Returns. From there it's anyone's bet. Oscar sometimes responds to comedy songs and if they do "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" from Buster Scruggs might show up, or Ralph Breaks the Internet's Disney approved self-mockery with "A Place Called Slaughter Race" but we're doubtful for various reasons. "Revelation" from Boy Erased has been pushed hard and works with its film well, but in the end it's repetitive solemn nature might make it a less exciting prospect for ballots. There's always the chance that Mary Poppins gets two nominations but we're sticking with our December predicts and assuming Oscar defaults to the anthemic RBG song "I'll Fight" from category mainstay Diane Warren and "Girl in the Movies" from Dumplin' because the film doubles as a Dolly Parton tribute.
SOUND MIXING
We have to look at the Cinema Audio Society for clues here and then parse it with our own knowledge of Oscar history. The CAS nominated A Quiet Place, A Star is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther, and First Man but they have a whole separate category for animated films so its possible that Oscar will include one (and if they do we're expecting either Incredibles 2 or Spider-Verse to be that spoiler). We think it extremely odd that Roma would miss a Sound mixing category because its soundscape is something else, but on the other hand the Oscar's sound community has been known to prize bombast over amazing design so its no sure thing. The CAS nominees rarely transfer wholly intact (they're usually 3/5 or 4/5) and Oscar likes musicals a lot so we have to think Mary Poppins Returns has a good shot here. But this is so confusing! Roma or Black Panther or Mary Poppins? Since the CAS nominee that often gets dumped is a superhero film (recent examples include Doctor Strange, Wonder Woman, Iron Man 3, and Guardians of the Galaxy) we're betting on Black Panther getting the chop and Roma overperforming while Mary Poppins Returns underperforms.
Hanging on a limb to predict this: a first nomination for the Mission Impossible series
SOUND EDITING
Oscar's sound branch inexplicably has two categories where other disciplines (with myriad distinct elements and skills within them) have to settle for one. They also don't do a good job justifying having two categories as they often nominate similar lists for the two prizes, the most they ever seem to stray is a two film separation which we're banking on this year due to so many music films in play. You have to assume if a film has a shot at Sound Mixing it will also have a shot at sound editing, though music-heavy films typically perform better in sound mixing. Action films typically perform slightly better in sound editing. So let's say A Quiet Place, First Man, and A Star is Born as the category crossovers and sub out Roma and Bohemian Rhapsody for two action films: Black Panther and, going way out on a limb here: Mission: Impossible - Fallout. Why is that a limb you ask? It's because this series has never been Oscar nominated in any capacity. Isn't that weird?
UPDATED CHARTS
PICTURE | DIRECTOR | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | SCREENPLAYS | SOUND CATEGORIES | ANIMATION & DOCUMENTARY FEATURES |
Reader Comments (48)
I'm going with Burning over Never Look Away because the latter seems like the cynical "What will the old fogies like?" choice and the old fogies have plenty of other things to rally behind among the likely nominees-- Cold War and Capernaum seem right up their alley and Roma and Shoplifters aren't really a reach for them. (Not to mention that Burning is higher profile, has had some campaigning, there may be a "let's finally reward South Korea" angle, etc...)
If Burning, Capernaum, Cold War, Roma, and Shoplifters are nominated, this would be the best Best Foreign Language Film lineup of all time, at least in my book.
Can we finally put to rest the notion that Regina King is not the frontrunner for the win now? I know that her exclusions with both SAG and BAFTA were supposed to be her doom, but she continued to dominate the race with both the Globes and the BFCA, which make those omissions seem even more like a fluke. It kind of feels like if anyone -- including and especially Amy Adams -- were going to derail her chances, then that person should have swept the televised awards entirely. For all of this talk about Adams being her nearest credible threat, what has she won?
Troy agreed, I suspect Adams will win SAG and Weisz will win BAFTA
I'll be sad if Terence Blanchard misses. That's a really good score.
Go, Regina! I agree that the brilliant performances of Rachel and Emma are egregiously cheating their way into this category, which is dreadful and unfair to so many terrific character actresses who have made a real impression this year. Debicki, Dolly West for Can You Ever Forgive Me?, or Sakura Ando for Shoplifters should all have been in this contest.
I am still hoping there will be a miracle, and AMPAS will take all three ladies of The Favourite out of the regular nominations and award them a special achievement prize. Problem solved.
I wouldn't count Adams out of the BAFTA race: She's 0-7 there (Best Actress nods for Arrival and Big Eyes) so they like her even more than the Academy does. If she'd been eligible for Junebug she might be 0-8.
That said, they loved The Favourite and Weisz is also BAFTA-less. And (by most accounts) gave the better performance, which helps. Still haven't seen Vice.
We blame critics for being the foot soldiers of Category Fraud and supporting The Favourite's blockage of this category from real and just stellar supporting options like Debicki.
The industry rejected Widows. The Favourite isn't to blame.
Do you really predict 'The Place Where Lost Things Go' over 'A Cover Is Not the Book'? That's surely the stand out... if only for Blunt's perfect EastEnders/Nancy from Oliver accent, lol.
South Korea has never been nominated before. I have to wonder if by now, or at some point, the strong Korean presence will push a film into the mix. The LAFCA would seem to point in that direction with Burning.
@Troy H: Adams won the Kansas City Film Critics Circle Award. I love Adams, but she'll definitely have to win at SAG to be any kind of threat.
brookesboy: you wouldn't put Sakura Ando in lead?
I would love to see Weisz win both SAG and BAFTA. Glorious performance and you could tell she was enjoying every minute of it.
Guys, somebody who isn't Regina will win at SAG and somebody who isn't Regina will win at BAFTA, which automatically makes Oscar a contest...
Regina is absolutely the front-runner but if the same person (Amy? Rachel?) takes BOTH the SAG and BAFTA wins? Then we officially have a nail-biter on Oscar night... in fact, we do anyway!
I know it goes without saying but it is still pretty much unprecedented for someone without a SAG and BAFTA nom to actually win the Oscar barring Queen Marcia. And I know precedent can be broken - I actually think King is the frontrunner.
In terms of prognastication though, I firmly believe it is unwise to crown the King already. BAFTA and SAG have overlaps with Oscar so it could well be voters don't actually like the performance! There is even a scenario where King doesn't even get the nomination.
Having said that, I think King will get the nom and will probably win. I don't think Adams is strong enough to triumph at the Oscars. The only situation where it'll be a contest for me is if Weisz triumphs at BAFTA/Globe.
Correction: BAFTA/SAG.
And I agree Kermit - what a novelty at the Oscars these days to have a nail-biter!
Would love to see Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased take the 5th spot in Supporting Actress
Guestguestguest--damn, they seem like such a seamless ensemble to me, I didn't even consider that she could be lead. You may be right.
Super excitng race not only for the win cos the supposed frontrunnner has no way of winning 2 MAJOR awards,I don't know who Bafta will pick I suspect Adams will take it and SAG too as I think Bale undeservedly wins Bafta and SAG also.
Foy would be my 5th but wouldn't be shocked if Robbie,Blunt or Cardellini managed it.
Besides not being a big fan of ROMA, Burning and Cold War, I will love if this three appear in more than one category at the Oscars.
I will give Burning and Cold War one more chance.
I think that the nominees on the categories mentioned will be:
Score: Fantastic Beasts 2 / First Man / If Beale... / Black Panther 🙄 / Mary Poppins 😒
Foreign Film: Shoplifters / ROMA / Capernaum / Burning / Cold War
Supporting Actress: King / Weisz (my Favourite performance of the movie!) / Stone / Adams / Swinton or T. Mckenzie
Wiesz would be a gr8 winner,she's defintely in tune with Yorgos.
Annette Bening Superhero.
http://www.impawards.com/2019/captain_marvel_ver10.html
"Meanwhile we're FURIOUS that Elizabeth Debicki in Widows never gained any traction this year since she should have been EASILY battling it out with Regina King in the big leagues."
No. She wouldn't. And that's probably why she didn't gain any traction this year. Did you watch the same movie everyone else did?
I'm thinking Blunt's SAG nomination is not an outlier. She gets the 5th slot, which means half of the nominees in the supporting categories will be from lead roles. (Ali, Chalamet, Weisz, Stone, and Blunt)
I honestly don't think it's super duper crazy had Colman gone supporting. Movie is very good but needs another viewing, for sure.
Mary Poppins Returns has a traditional and very loud score. I also think it's very good, so I'd say yes.
The Death of Stalin or You Were Never Really Here getting Greenwood another nod?
Go Tyne Daly! :)
Claire Foy is excellent in First Man. Best "housewife" role in years.
I know Nathaniel, I think we"re all overthinking that fifth spot and its been Foy all along. The only thing she missed is SAG.
Margot Robbie has SAG and BAFTA and a previous best actress nominee consider her. I don't believe Foy's current it girl status is enough. Of course the Academy could be very dull this year with their nominee slates.
Agree with the "it girl" thing Robbie seems to have. I'm not sure she's as good as her press. But I could certainly see Foy enduring the challenge, or even Kidman sneaking in.
If Adams wins SAG and BAFTA, and people start to realise this is her 6th nominations without a win, she could easily build an 'overdue' narrative that threatens King's ascension to the throne (ahem).
The Slaughter Race song is written by Alan Menken, who the Music Branch adores as much as Diane Warren, so that could be the quirky 'surprise' in this category next week.
Having seen The Favourite last night, I thought Olivia Colman had the least amount of screen time among the ladies. I still think all ladies are leading but if anyone was going to go supporting it would be Colman. Maybe she gets supporting nom and Weisz gets leading nom?
I would love for Kidman to get a nomination for Boy Erased. Maybe all these last minute releases of her movies could keep her in voters' minds?
Can we have Regina King posterized?
I'd say Robbie takes the 5th spot, she has SAG n Bafta support, which is the industry itself n Queen Liz I is catnip to the voters. She even got a snatch wig in her big scene!!
If Roma, Cold War, Shoplifters, Burning n Capernum all get nom, it'll indeed b the best foreign pic list, like ever..but as Nat pointed out, Thr Academy will alws throw a curveball or two in this category.
But instead o Burning, i tink Capernum is the most vulnerable o the lots. The storyline might b too bleak for some voters.
The First Man score is a knockout, and my vote for best of the year, alongside the score for Disobedience.
I don't understand the de facto "must win" stance on Regina King the online community and the critics have had all awards season. Even if you took away the performances most people think are category fraud, she would still not be the best performance available to the Academy.
But that's okay. Clearly' I'm in the minority.
Weisz all the way, baby. She was an absolute delight, and she gets my, heh, favourite arc in the entire film (and Lanthimos clearly LOVES Weisz, which I'm definitely here for!). I'd love to see her win her BAFTA, finally! :)
Would love it if Foy gets in. Would love even more if they reward Debicki. Still Adams will win imo.
/3rtful -- THE FAVOURITE is to blame. In the absence of open spots the conversations about who is worthy dry out and people don't even think about who is worthy. Category Fraud is to blame! Who's to say who might have risen up if people weren't keeping 40% of the category (maybe 60% on Oscar nom morning) open for Best Actress spillover.
If Weisz triumphs at the Oscars, both her supporting Oscars will be for leading roles. Weird.
Aaron - not so weird, unless you mean because she is a leading actress at heart. Shelley Winters and Dianne Wiest both won 2 supportinv awards each.
I've been trying to figure out why Roma missed at CAS and BAFTA and I'm left wondering if sound people feel that the achievement there is in the sound system rather than the actual work done by the filmmakers... Anybody know?
JB --- they've already narrowed down best song to 15 options and the only two from Mary Poppins are THE PLACE WHERE LOST THINGS GO and TRIP A LITTLE LIGHT FANTASTIC.
Evan -- it's a mystery to me! Roma's sound is so incredible.
Manny - isn't it weird that Weisz wasn't the first choice given that Lanthimos loves her. That's the role Kate Winslet was originally going to play before dropping out.
isn't it weird that Weisz wasn't the first choice given that Lanthimos loves her. That's the role Kate Winslet was originally going to play before dropping out.
Seems like he saw as an opportunity to work with Winslet not so much Weisz wasn't ideal for the role.
I mean, I really don't remember Weisz in The Constant Gardener being a lead role. I was young, and haven't seen it since (tho I thought it was great), but while I remember Nathaniel picking her as a lead, and have heard a few people here echoing, it's certainly a fraudulent placement. Please feel free to tell if I'm wrong and not remembering well enough.
As far as Roma goes...I had some issues with the sound when it came to the dialogue. Things weren't clear, and the general soundscape interrupted. Maybe it was the TV, and I'll watch it again, but I thought so.
Weisz was great in The Favourite but I think Winslet would've been too.
It's certainly **not** a fraudulent placement (in the supporting category).
Sorry
I think people see Weisz in TCG in the vein of Hopkins in TSoTL; a presence felt in the entire movie even when he/she isn't visually present.
Weisz's awards run for TCG was what got me started on awards in general, and though I never actually believed she'd win, the win itself remains one my favorites from the past decade. And yes, she's my favorite actress, but it was richly deserved. And a true supporting role, at least screentime-wise.
I agree with /3rtful, Nathaniel, I think Lanthimos wanted to work with another actress. He doesn't strike me as a director who's too keen on having a roster by his side. However, if he wants to keep giving Weisz roles like he has in The Lobster and The Favourite, I will not be upset AT ALL. :)
I agree with that^^, I was actually going to bring up Hopkins and then deleted that sentence.
Kate Winslet can't be on The Favourite because her mother was very ill and Lanthimos decided to not wait (could be another year of longing). Kate's mom passed away may 2017 after a long battle against cancer.
If was not for that, Kate would be in the film and in the talk to her 8th nomination (12* nom in my personal ballot) and second Oscar (6th Oscar in my personal account).
* Best Actress: Heavenly Creatures, Titanic, Eternal Sunshine, Little Children**, Revolutionary Road**, Wonder Wheel**
*Best Supporting Actress: Sense and Sensibility**, Hamlet, Quills, The Reader, Steve Jobs**
**my wins for her
I wonder if Winslet would have been campaigned lead if she had been in The Favourite. No shade to Weisz, but she is such a big name that it would have been odd to see her go Supporting for that role.