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Final Oscar Predictions

by Nathaniel R

Sharing a predictions article I wrote for Towleroad yesterday just after having posted our final predictions in that penultimate podcast discussion of the season. It's highly likely that I've contradicted myself a few times. And I'm already regretting some of those "final" predictions. A confusing year it's been. CHAOS REIGNS! So here are the final predictions, posted in order of how the prizes were handed out last year. If I'm already second guessing myself there are notes in red font. Category titles will take you to the corresponding chart where you have one last day to vote on your favourites. Ready?  Here we go...

Will Win: Mahershala Ali has cleaned up all season for his leading role in Green Book but is he really all that convincing as a gay man? We say no, though your mileage may vary. Plus he won just two years ago for a better performance (Moonlight) so why is this happening? Why?!
Should Win: Richard E Grant wipes the floor with the Supporting Actor competition with this fully developed alcoholic streetwise character. “Jack Hock, big cock” is his introduction and he never stops being hilarious, touching, and unpredictable throughout a great queer film Can You Ever Forgive Me? Don't miss our interview with him.

Will Win: People love Christian Bale’s chameleonic weight gains and losses so his transformation into Dick Cheney should do the trick. Though with makeup effects this good — they made his neck larger and you’d never know he wasn’t balding — one wonders why Bale puts himself through so much harmful yo-yoing in his physique for these parts he takes.
Should Win: The hard-to-describe Swedish movie Border (make sure you see it) which has some of the best makeup effects you’ll ever see… and which you won’t be able to unsee, fair warning.

Will Win/Should Win: A total nail-biter. It’s either going to be Sandy Powell’s incredible work on the palace tragicomedy The Favourite, mixing period silhouettes with ultra modern textiles and techniques and an amazingly rangy color palette (considering the heavy use of blacks and whites) or Ruth E Carter’s futuristic creative work on Black Panther imagining a technologically advanced hidden African society. We’re rooting for Black Panther primarily because Carter has never won despite incredible work and Powell (who we like to think of as Tilda Swinton in costume designer drag) already has three Oscars, famously starting her third winning speech 9 years ago with a flippant “I already have two of these.”

I've predicted Black Panther but I'm starting to lean to The Favourite taking this, both because the costumes are so perfect and because it fits Oscars default mode even when the costumes aren't this worthy. The Favourite feels like the night's true wild card. I've predictd just one win but there are believable scenarios where it surprises and takes up to five trophies. 

Will Win: We suspect this is a tight race between two blockbuster docs, the mountain climbing Free Solo and the biography RBG. Given RBG’s iconic nature and the current political resistance climate we think RBG has the edge to win.
Should Win: Abstain as we haven’t yet seen all five. But opinions seem to vary wildly about which one is the best.

Will Win: Going out on a limb here to say that this is where First Man fans rally for that underappreciated historical drama about the moon landing. But this could just as easily go to the any of the other nominees: Roma, Black Panther, A Quiet Place, or Bohemian Rhapsody
Should WinFirst Man

Is this wishful thinking? I've heard convincing cases that A Quiet Place / Bohemian will take this and I don't think Black Panther is out of the question either. This year is hard to predict, y'all.

Will WinBohemian Rhapsody probably has this one sewn up, primarily for providing the joy of that soundwall of Queen hits. Queen is a great band but that doesn’t mean we should be throwing statues at a bad movie about them! 
Should WinRoma and First Man both have incredible soundscapes and if they want to honor a music drama for the win, A Star is Born‘s mix is a lot more of a challenge than hitting play on Queen’s greatest hits collection. I know I'm being reductive but it feels like the world is being gaslit into believing that Bohemian Rhapsody is some sort of worthy film. What is happening?

Will / Should Win: The Favourite. Oscar voters love royalty porn and palaces, so why not? The film is a work of art. Those tapestries alone! That said we won't be made at all if Roma‘s immersive take on Mexico City in 1970 or Black Panther‘s imaginative Wakanda takes it instead.

Imagine a tie!

Will Win: Mexico’s Roma, hands down, though Poland’s Cold War would have easily won in a non Netflix/Roma dominant year. 
Should Win: Japan’s ShopliftersRent it. You’ll weep. But really this is a great category this year. Lebanon’s Capernaum is also riveting.

Will Win: Tough call as there hasn’t been a clear frontrunner as there too often is in each and every acting race. It’s either going to be Regina King’s warmth and fortitude as a distraught mother in If Beale Street Could Talk or Rachel Weisz’s lacerating quips and heartbreak in The Favourite
Should Win: We’re rooting for Regina since Rachel has a leading role and has already won but, that said, Rachel is fan-tas-tic in The Favourite as stated so explicitly in our last Smackdown conversation

Officially I predicted Regina King but now I'm thinking Rachel Weisz.

Will WinWeekends for a wild guess, though Pixar’s Bao is the most widely seen.
Should Win: Abstain. I really meant to take in the shorts program this week but this time of year is always such rough going, scheduling-wise.

Will WinSpider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Should WinIsle of Dogs and Spider-Verse are both grand imaginative entertainments.

Will WinFirst Man. Lately the winner in this category has been the film with the lowest gross (in a category that regularly nominated blockbusters). Funny, right? And that moon landing is just sublime filmmaking.
Should WinAvengers: Infinity WarBut for whatever reason superhero movies almost never winSpider-Man 2 (2004) is literally the only superhero film that’s ever won this Oscar, competitively speaking.

Will Win: This category is sometimes an Oscar bellwether as to what will win Best Picture. If it goes to Green Book, I'd fully expect that to take Best Picture. If it goes toBohemian Rhapsody or Vice, there may be other factors at work like the challenge of turning a troubled production into a blockbuster or “Most” Editing respectively. We’re guessing Vice but it’ll be close either way.
Should Win: Either of the two that look like they have no shot at it: the confrontational BlacKkKlansman with it crosscut conversations with classic cinema, or The Favourite, with its merciless comic precision and its soulful and strange dissolves.

Second thoughts: It seems that everyone has joined the Bohemian Rhapsody 'will win here' train so I'm nervous about my prediction. Maybe I just didnt want to deal with an Oscar that close in proximity to Bryan Singer and the icky feelings that will continue to churn up online in discussions about Hollywood's sexual abuse problems;  John Ottman has EXCLUSIVELY edited for Bryan Singer his whole career (though it should be noted that he's also a music composer - but in that portion of his career he sometimes leaves Singer's filmography... though he also scores some of Singer's films).

Will Win: We have a suspicion that Period. End of Sentence, currently streaming on Netflix, which is about an upstart factory producing tampons for women in rural India might take it. It’s the rare non-depressing Doc short nominee.
Should Win: …but we’re rooting for End Gamealso streaming on Netflix, which Glenn thinks will win. This emotionally charged short is about end-of-life care and new ways of looking at and making peace with death. It’s from two-time Oscar winning gay documentarian Rob Epstein (of The Times of Harvey MilkCommon Threads: Stories from the Quilt, and The Celluloid Closet fame)

Will Win: I'm guessing Detainment. Eric is guessing Skin
Should Win:  Eric likes Detainment best. I'm partial to Marguerite, the lone live-action short nominee this year that is not a traumatically violent story involving little boys (weird trend alert!). It’s a drama about an aging woman who realizes her nurse is a lesbian, which then prompts her to remember her own lost love.

Will WinBlacKkKlansman because it’s a chance to finally give Spike Lee a competitive Oscar and the film and screenplay are damn good, too.
Should WinCan You Ever Forgive Me? a screenplay from the great writer Nicole Holofcener (who usually directs her own screenplays – but not this time), and Tony winner Jeff Whitty (of Avenue Q fame).

Will Win: Another tough call. If Green Book wins this, we expect it to take Best Picture, too. And that’s what we’re currently thinking.
Should WinThe Favourite

Green Book is not really going to win this is it? Perhaps I'm just freaking myself out. The Favourite would be an obvious choice to check on your ballot, wouldn't it?

Will WinRoma
Should WinCold War, that other gloriously shot black & white foreign movie in the mix this year.

Will WinBlack Panther
Should Win: It’s a strong category this year since Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns, If Beale Street Could Talk, and BlacKkKlansman would also make fine winners. In fact both Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman already won Grammys (in separate categories) recently. 

Will / Should Win: If Lady Gaga doesn’t take this for “Shallow” there will be (gay) riots. Early prediction: the performance of “Shallow” will be the highlight of the ceremony, unless someone like Glenn Close gives a pitch perfect quotable speech.

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón for his personal and artistic triumph, Roma. I love Cuarón but I am a bit worried about how dragged down the show might get with having to watch the same person give 3 (director, foreign film, cinematography) to 5 (picture and screenplay) of the 24 speeches. 
Should Win: Listen, it's a really good category. They can't really go wrong unless well... that's not going to happen so never mind.

Will Win: Rami Malek has this wrapped up. During your Oscar party you should have your guests lipsync to Queen hits during commercial break. Whoever does the best job should get a toy Oscar as a party favor because apparently spirited lipsynching is enough to win an Oscar now? [sigh]
Should Win: Bradley Cooper hands down. That his raw soulful lived in performance as a troubled rock star falling in love isn’t picking up trophies is bewildering. Plus he does his own singing and songwriting. Rami Malek could never.

Will Win/Should Win: Glenn Close in The Wife. Yes, there’s a chance that Olivia Colman upsets Close’s long-denied coronation with her hilarious and moving work as Queen Anne in The Favourite but we think Hollywood will realize it’s time to honor Close’s career with the trophy she’s been long denied. This is her seventh nomination and it’s not a pity nomination: she’s spectacular in the movie and I’m proud to have been quoted on one of the earliest posters, saying so. She’s now the most nominated actress of all time to have never won. At least until Sunday.

Will Win: Who knows? Our crystal balls are so cloudy. The precursor awards have been as tumultuous as the Academy’s constant walked back press releases about their show. Roma won the Directors Guild Award, Black Panther took the Screen Actors Guild Award, Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Bookowned the Globes, Roma nabbed the Critics Choice, Green Book won the Producers Guild Award, and then Roma and The Favourite cleaned up at BAFTA. Plus the Oscars use a “preferential” ballot for Best Picture (which they don’t use on the other categories) which means you can win the top prize even if you didn’t get the most #1 votes (provided you have a lot of #2 and #3 votes), as long as another film doesn’t win outright with too many #1 votes on the first count to have to go down the list — look, it’s complicated! (They basically have to rank the nominees.)

In the end we think it’s going to either Roma or Green Book, which both appear to be beloved in Hollywood and will surely get a lot of #1 through #3 votes, but Black Panther wouldn’t be surprising if no film dominates on first count because nobody hates Black Panther. Hesistant prediction: Green Book.
Should WinThe Favourite.

People. Nick Davis has me legitimately scared that Bohemian Rhapsody is going to take the ultimate prize. Perhaps people were too busy being mad at Green Book to notice that Bohemian was that much of a threat? Or maybe it's all silly worrying and Roma has this in the bag.  

We’ve predicted a ‘spread the wealth’ kind of night with all the Best Picture nominees winning at least one Oscar like so: Roma and Green Book (3 each), Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice, and Black Panther (2 each), and The Favourite, A Star is Born, and BlacKkKlansman (1 each). The wild cards are definitely Roma and The Favourite. They each have ten nominations and it’s easy to see scenarios wherein they pick up a lot more than we’ve predicted here, maybe as high as 5 Oscars each!

HAPPY OSCAR WATCHING, ALL! We'll have a lot of post Oscar content as per usual so keep coming back now, y'hear?

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Reader Comments (47)

Can you please have an open Oscar thread for tomorrow night so we can all commiserate here in real-time?


February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMDA

Regina will win Sup Actress. Weisz would win if Stone was not also in the category.

Zero chance Bohemian wins best picture. No need to worry about that. Roma will win it with an outside shot for Green Book.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterAnonny

Eventually, I think we should circle back to the decision to run A Star Is Born & Bohemian Rhapsody in the Globes’ “Drama” categories. The move seems to have seriously damaged ASIB, which would have had a least picked up a high prifile trophy for Gaga.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterDusty

This has been a weird year, but at least it hasn’t been boring. Thanks for keeping us all sane this season, Nathaniel. I second the request for the open thread!!

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterGeorge

I still think Green Book is going to get a lot of low votes to offset the many high votes it gets. I don't see that happening with Roma.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBruno

I don’t think Olivia Colman gave a better performance than Glenn Close, but she was definitely in a way better film which helps alot. Agree with Nathaniel, this could be Glenn’s last shot at the Oscars and I do hope she wins.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBlueMoon02

Two things I hope for tomorrow:

1) Richard E Grant over Mahershala Ali

2) Bradley Cooper over Rami Malek

3) The Favourite or Black Panther for Best Pic


February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBlueMoon02

I glanced at an article that quoted some Harvard grad who predicted 20 of 21 last year to say Glenn has a 65% chance. If I could only believe that. I think at this point it's about 51%. Interestingly, he had Gaga & Colman at about even odds (14-15%) which makes me wonder if he's pretty much totally wrong.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBruno

Oops that’s 3.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBlueMoon02

If the Acadamy/Hollywood wants to walk the walk and talk the talk (that they have spent the last YEAR doing so) about not awarding sexual abusers, they won't give BoRhap anything. If they do? Then not a single Goddamn motherfucking one of them gets to say shit about how they support #MeToo and #Time'sUp.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous One

I don’t like Rami Malek’s performance either, but I don’t think he’s just lip-syncing. To me, what makes the performance so bad is how effortful and mannered it is. He’s doing a lot, he’s just doing it badly.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterben1283

Bohemian Rhapsody will not - must not - win Best Picture. Just absolutely not. No. No. No no no no.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterRob

What an odd criticism of Ail’s performance, that he is not convincing as gay and that Grant is as if being gay is one thing and on experience. As a gay if color, I definitely felt that Ail’s “gay playing straight” resonated more deeply than Grant’s “gay playing straight”. I hope they both lose and an actual gay playing gay wins one day.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterZ

In Rami Malek’s defense; Bradley Cooper probably couldn’t sing like Freddie Mercury either

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterkris01

Ben1283 said "I don’t like Rami Malek’s performance either, but I don’t think he’s just lip-syncing. To me, what makes the performance so bad is how effortful and mannered it is. He’s doing a lot, he’s just doing it badly."

Perfectly sums him up,it's not just the teeth,it's too studied,too concerned at getting the recreation right,there's no character there just a pale imitation,there's no connection,the 70's and 80's scenes are badly designed too,infact nearly every era is lit just like every modern drama,an awful greeny/blue that does not put you in any era but now,and them leaving Freddies actual "Alright" from Live Aid on the soundtrack is unforgiveable.

This is a Bullock in The Blind Side,competent but no real depth beyond basic 1,2,3 acting.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

Detainment is unequivocally awful, to the point of moral indifference.

Bao and First Step are best.

Vice is very well-edited. Think of all the shit McKay throws into the movie to make up for how bad his screenplay is.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMe

I bet Sacha Baron Cohen could have sung like Freddie Mercury, or at least come close. But the film he wanted to make wouldn’t have been feted with Oscars.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

Nathaniel, I feel like your Original Screenplay predition for Green Book comes more from fear than anything else. It reminds me of the American Hustle year, which you also predicted in that category. In the end I feel the Academy isn't that dumb and will reward the better work (just like they did with Her that year) and The Favourite will take it :)

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterLucky

MDA & George -- we can do that. I dont think i'll live blog but just watch and then stay up all night doing articles about the show :)

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterNATHANIEL R

@Anonymous One; That makes no sense. Guilty by association makes victims out of more people. Bohemian Rhapsody isn't offensive; it's just bad. Malek's first 20min are, in fact, effortful and mannered. I can't disagree with that, but he comes around to create a character I genuinely buy. Does he nail all of the emotional marks down the stretch? No, but he improves a lot throughout and is pretty memorable. That said, I don't know that it's nomination-caliber, but I think a better film would have given him a chance.

Z; I'm not gay, so maybe my thoughts aren't as material here as others', but I think that's important. Especially as we're not privy to much of his lifestyle, or revelation of different feelings. We catch a man, who carries himself with dignity, keeping to himself because he can't just live that openly. The person I was with figured he was gay early on. Does that mean much? Not sure, but I think you're absolutely right.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMe

Z, don't you mean "straight playing gay"? Malek is awesome!

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJane

Best Picture - Roma (maybe Green Book?)
Best Director - Cuaron
Best Actress - Close
Best Actor - Malek
Best Supp. Actress - Weisz
Best Supp. Actor - Ali

I wonder if despite the potential for lots of surprises, it actually ends up being really run of the mill?

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterevangelina

I read the article from EW and they interviewed I want to say seven people and they all were voting for a different movie for Best Picture. It might be a closer race than we all think. However most said they were voting for Ali and King. Actor and Actress were more up in the air between Malek, Bale, and Cooper and Colman was getting more votes then Close.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterTom G.

I agree Bradley should win but I don’t mind Rami winning. I don’t think his performance is bad at all like some are making it out to be.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterGuest

@Tom G.: I just looked at that and actually Bale and Colman would be the runaway winners if we believe that's a good sampling.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBruno

My predictions:

Best Actress - As much as I love Glenn, I prefer either Olivia or Melissa. They were so much better and I have enough of these overdue victories. Just like Nat is tired of lead performers being nominated for supporting. That said I predict Glenn will win and she will deliver a fabulous speech.

Best Actor - Rami Malek. I shed a tear for Bradley because he deserves it.

Best Supporting Actress - Regina, but I want Rachel to win. Personally I feel like people are rooting for Regina because everyone loves her. I love her too, but I love Rachel’s performance more.

Best Supporting Actor - Mahershala for sure. Too bad because Richard was the better performer for me.

Picture - Roma and I don’t mind. I love the movie, but I love The Favourite more.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered Commentergoodbar

No! Stanley Donen died! They should honor him during the ceremony, but I worry it's too late.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterCash

I just find the Best Actor race to be so embarrassing this year. The fact that Bale and Malek are (were? Perhaps Malek has this locked down) frontrunners for middling performances in middling films is baffling. At least we have some truly memorable performances in Actress and Supporting Actress, so perhaps I will just focus on those!

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterDavid

I have read from several sources that what you hear in Bohemian Rhapsody is actually Malek’s voice mixed with another singer’s voice (not Freddy Mercury). Hence the Oscar for sound mixing will be very well deserved. Apparently they only used this mix in the movie and not in the soundtrack CD.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterPedro

Well it doesn't sound exactly like Mercury in film, but I assumed they just took live performances where, as a rock star and frontman, there was more to it than just protecting your voice and singing perfectly.

Looking it up, looks (and sounds) like it's mostly another guy.

The scene at the piano in his room is stupid tho.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMe

I have a feeling that Picture and Director is going to be a split between Curon and Lee. I also think that Lead Actor may go to someone else.

February 23, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterKae

"Whoever does the best job should get a toy Oscar as a party favor because apparently spirited lipsynching is enough to win an Oscar now? [sigh]"

Some may stop having as a main critic against Rami Malek the fact that he does not sing. Because in reality there have already been others who have been nominated and have even won and have not really sung.

February 24, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterHarmodio

My Predictions:

Best Picture: Roma
Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón - Roma
Best Actor in Leading Role: Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Actress in Leading Role: Glenn Close - The Wife (Although it should be Olivia Colman)
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
The Favourite

February 24, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterHarmodio

I wonder are all members voting for each category ? There are so many actors in the academy ... would they really all vote for Malek ? I can't really imagine that - ... it's bizarre - what makes people all run in the same direction suddenly ??? Especially as there was so much admiration for Coopers previous work - and this is his best performance yet in a movie that will become a classic.

February 24, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMartin

Maybe there's a shock coming in BA and Malek is not sewn up.

February 24, 2019 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

@Martin: All Academy members vote for each category. I really don't see a realistic chance for Cooper, he's had no traction whatsoever anywhere. If Malek misses it'll be Bale, but that's been increasingly unlikely.

February 24, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBruno

I am hoping for an upset in Best Actor. I am going to make a really wild prediction and say Dafoe wins. After the snub last year and several nominations without a win maybe some voters feel they owe it to him.

February 24, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterReady

The dissing of Malek for lip syncing the inimitable Freddie Mercury is stupid and petty. Don't let your emotions turn you daft fella.

February 24, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterChillbra

"Yes, there’s a chance that Olivia Colman upsets Close’s long-denied coronation with her hilarious and moving work as Queen Anne in The Favourite" False statement, please delete. Many thanks, Editor.

February 24, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterEditor

"Agree with Nathaniel, this could be Glenn’s last shot at the Oscars and I do hope she wins" Nobody says that, but yes.

February 24, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterViolet

@Chillbra: You may be right, lip-syncing is actually more acting than real singing. When an actor sings/dances/paints/juggles for a role that's a plus, but I wouldn't really call it great acting. More like severe dedication to the role. The real problem with Malek's performance is that it's mostly an elongated mimic without much depth or substance.

@Editor: I know you're probably joking but don't be surprised if Colman walks away with it. The Academy are seasoned pros at denying Oscars to Glenn Close, and her movie has been unduly misaligned by people with agendas.

February 24, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBruno

Oops, maligned, not misaligned. I don't even have autocorrect to blame for that one.

February 24, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBruno

First Reformed > The Favourite in screenplay.

First Reformed is the best American movie of the century, Paul Schrader is one of the best writers of all time.

February 24, 2019 | Unregistered Commentercal roth

Having an assignment due tomorrow and understand you can’t do it yourself? But you’re afraid of delegating your paper to some scam services as well? Why not check on

February 24, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterRichard

Funny, my Family just rented Bohemian Rhapsody...he's pretty damn good.

Movie still sucks and he shouldn't be nominated, but still.

How haven't more people killed the performance by the guy who plays Paul? Damn.

February 24, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMe

When did everyone turn their back on Roma and its cinematography? I figured everyone wanted Roma to win that category.

February 24, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterDan

When Cold War wiped the floor with it^^^

February 24, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMe

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