Voila ~ the April Foolish Predictions are Complete!

by Nathaniel R

Whew. Can y'all give me a round of applause? Somehow I finished the April Foolish charts in all the early doable categories (i.e. all but documentaries and the three shorts categories) before April was done! Let this be a new leaf turned as we need lots of new leaves while we reinvent ourselves FOR 2018.

The freshly baked charts...

PREDICTION INDEX |  PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR 

And the charts that previously went up, some of which we've discussed on the blog....

ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | SCREENPLAYS | FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM | VISUAL CATEGORIES | MUSIC AND SOUND CATEGORIES | ANIMATED FEATURES

As you can see if you peruse them, they're filled with all sorts of narrative possibilities. Some of those stories they tell are in direct opposition to one another. I urge all of you to try this year in advance thing at home some year. It's incredibly confusing because each time you place a movie here you have to figure how it might affect things over there since there are distinct patterns to the way things happen. 

Steve Carell in "The Women of Marwen" based on the story that also informed the documentary "Marwencol"

It's like trying to construct a crazy intricate jigsaw puzzle without the final image to work from! You can make it up as you go along but what the hell kind of picture are your fingers forming?  And no matter how careful you are some things never end up making any sense...

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April Foolish Predictions: Best Actress !

by Nathaniel R

 

Yes, we (currently) think Glenn Close will win the next Best Actress Oscar. Yes, there are multiple reasons why that might not happen but for now we're predicting that it shall. At long last! A number of elements are there to help make that happen on paper, including (and this is no small detail) a fine role that doubles as a nifty meta commentary about Glenn Close's own Oscar history (and more largely the plight of accomplished aging women who gone unrecognized whiles others are fêted). There are things that could derail this prediction of course: an undeniable event performance (think a Monster or a Blue Jasmine  though those never make themselves clear until a film is screened) or considerable career momentum (Saoirse Ronan?) or 'welcome to the big leagues' fever since Oscar loves a young leading lady (Kiki Layne?). But those are what-if scenarios just like Close winning. 

Even if you take Glenn Close as a done deal for a nomination --  which of course you shouldn't since it's nothing is certain this early on -- it still looks like a good year for leading women nonetheless. 

Eight questions to consider for the comments after the jump...

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April Foolish Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

by Nathaniel R

One intriguing possibility is Oscar Isaac as the painter Paul Gauguin in "At Eternity's Gate" -- the film is about Vincent Van Gogh's time in Aries (in which their friendship went awry) -- but will it be ready in time and get strong distribution?

And now we come to the one acting category that arguably has no super devoted fan base: Best Actor in a Supporting Role. Why have we never met an obsessive fan of this category? It's easy to run into people who love leading ladies and/or leading men and, we should know more than anyone given the Supporting Actress Smackdowns that that particular contest tends to fascinate a wide swath of people. So why no love for Supporting Actor? Could it be because the Academy uses this category, we'd argue more than the others, as an afterthought, filling it with 'thanks for the career' citations and 'we like this movie, so, sure' troupers. Any other theories out there as to the lack of love? Please note: this is not to disparage supporting players as we love to sing their praises for jobs well done. Supporting actors (and actresses) are essential to the overall success of the stories they help shape and color.  

We've got at least five true stories this year with heavily male supporting ensembles that could affect this category though it's difficult to know in advance which actor (if any) might make enough of a mark to stand out beyond the leading men or leading ladies

• The undercover in the Klu Klux Klan drama BlacKkKlansman from Spike Lee (August)
• Astronauts to the moon drama First Man  from La La Land's Damien Chazelle (October)
• The Dick Cheney political (comic?) biopic Backseat from the director of The Big Short (December)
• Mary Queen of Scots history is full of men wrestling for power through her (December)
• Mary Poppins Ret --- WAIT, THAT'S NOT A TRUE STORY? GET OUTTA HERE! 

INVESTIGATE THE CHART. What do you think might happen in this category? 

Previous April Foolish Articles
Supporting Actress, Costume Design, Cinematography, Original Score, Screenplays, Animated Features, and the Prediction Charts

Beauty Break: April Foolish Costume Design Predictions

by Nathaniel R

Fantastic Beasts won Colleen Atwood her 4th Oscar. Will its sequel give her her 13th nomination?

The original Mary Poppins lost the Costume Design competition. Could Sandy Powell win it for the sequel?

Even if the year's Costume Design prospects weren't so tantalizing we'd be salivating because we love the artform. After a relatively weak previous season, this category has the opportunity to come roaring back for 2018 in a big way. Consider that all four of the Academy's favorite working costume designers (with 43 nominations and 13 wins between them) might be back this year...

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April Foolish Predictions: Let's talk Cinematography!

by Nathaniel R

We didn't forget about the April Foolish Predictions. They just got all tangled up with Tribeca screenings, Cannes news, Avengers mania, and everything else going on in April. So herewith another prediction batch. First charts are now up for all of the visual categories, barring Costume Design which will get its own post tomorrow just because. 

Cinematography is always one of the most exciting contests as there are so many genuinely gifted DPs out there doing great work over and over again but only one Oscar to hand out each year. At the moment I'm wondering about the futures of these four DPs in particular...

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