Globe Predictions Anyone?

by Nathaniel R

A few days back David Poland asked the Gurus of Gold to predict the Globes and I became obsessed with the notion that I, Tonya would be the surprise heavyweight. I was pretty much alone in that with nearly the entire group thinking Lady Bird's got this in the bag (a couple of people think Get Out). I think my I Tonya prediction was more a product of my fear since the wildly positive response to the movie surprised me and sent me back for a second viewing which only strengthened my resolve that it's a) not good and b) highly problematic...

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All Oscar Charts Updated

Wanting to while away a few minutes between Christmas feasts, clean up, or socializing? Check out the fully updated Oscar predictions. A gain here or there for Get Out, Three Billboards, Victoria & Abdul, Mudbound, and Wonder a big net loss for Darkest Hour and various tinkering. Meanwhile Oscar voting doesn't even start until January 5th so here comes the last big push for campaigns to get those screeners watched and the movies talked about!

Would Be Totally Confusing If It Were Still 5 Only, Right?: Picture
Will Hurt From the Inevitable Snubs: Director and Original Screenplay
Outcome Still Feels Quite Cloudy: Foreign Film, Adapted Screenplay, Animation and Docs
Locked But For "Never Underestimate Judi Dench" Factor: Actress
Precursors Shook 'Em Up: Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress
Anyone's Guess: Visuals and Aurals

Does Woody Harrelson spell trouble for Willem Dafoe?

by Nathaniel R

A police chief and a hotel manager, both overwhelmed and sympathetic and arguably the moral center of their movies.

It's been a long time since we had a double-nomination situation in Best Supporting Actor. The last time it happened was 26 years ago when Ben Kingsley and Harvey Keitel were nominated together for Bugsy (1991) - a curious event since Keitel was so much stronger in another Oscar nominated classic from that year. Given the rise of Woody Harrelson with that Screen Actor's Guild nomination and the overall assumed strength of Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri in the Best Picture race, it could well happen again. His co-star Sam Rockwell, already felt locked and loaded for the same movie in a (somewhat) larger part. 

But does this spell trouble for Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project? Consensus was beginning to form that Dafoe, who became famous in the mid 80s and has worked ever since, would easily walk away with the Oscar this year...

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"Shape of Water" way way out front at the Critics Choice Awards

by Nathaniel R

As always, full disclosure: I am a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association. So this award announcement is always filled with anxiety for me because I want to be heard. We all want to be heard. Nevertheless most of the longer shots I rallied for didn't make it, he said, pushing away a single tear. The Shape of Water led with 14 nominations... and it was so far out front it nearly doubled the nominations afforded to its nearest rivals (a clump of them jammed together with 8 nominations each:  Call Me By Your Name, Lady Bird, Dunkirk, and The Post).

As ever I'm disappointed that the nominations double so heavily as "general Oscar pundit predictiveness" but here they are in their fullness with very immediate and perhaps too impulsive commentary after the jump.

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Every Oscar Chart Updated!

Oscar voters don't begin voting for quite some time still but precursors season is off like a shot: we've already had the Gotham Awards, the Spirit nominations, the NBR and NYFCC announcements and the Directors Guild of America got their nomination ballots this week, too. They generally come close to matching Oscar's eventual list and in ye olden times of 5 wide categories they were considered the single best predictor for the eventual Best Picture nominees. We pray they choose wisely this year. It'd be so great to have a female director in the shortlist this year, wouldn't it? (hint hint) 

In case you've missed various posts like Adapted Screenplay confusion, the diverse director field, and the deep best actress & supporting actress bench, please to know that every Oscar prediction chart has been revamped. Some new text, some fresh images, and definite shifts in ranking. Read them and weep or rejoice depending on whether your favorites are predicted or not.

PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTRESS | ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SCREENPLAYS | FOREIGN FILM | VISUAL CATEGORIES | AURAL CATEGORIES | ANIMATED AND DOCUMENTARY CATEGORIES