Throwing the Link Bones

Gurus of Gold the final predictions. It's fascinating to see where the differences of opinion lie on this handy chart of top pundits
Telegraph Tim Robey picks the five best Oscar years ever from 1939 forward. Good choices.
Deadspin's "Hater's Guide to the Oscars" is insanely funny. Get on over there. Finally a piece making fun of the Oscars that is not dumb (Honestly I've had it with all the takedowns of Oscar we get every year. Even the 140 character type of takedowns. They're all so stupid and whiny ("why can't my favorites be nominated. waaaaaa") and clueless about how it all actually works and what movies, you know, exist in the world. 

Finally, you must read MTV Styles "United Colors of Lupita"... I know Oscar prediction is an inexact science, roughly akin to tossing small animal bones on the ground and pontificating but this is why I think Lupita is going to win.

This. 

Who needs all the precursors to line up when you can do this?

2 Days Til Oscar. Final Oscar Predictions

This article originally appeared in my column at Towleroad and is reprinted here (albeit slightly altered for the TFE crowd) with their permission

Gravity will win how many Oscars? The most at any rate.

Oscar Weekend is upon us! Those damn Olympics forced it into March so it already feels like its running late and pushing back the local news broadcast yet further into the AM hours. And it hasn't even started yet! But soon Ellen Degeneres will be dancing down the aisles and we'll be on our way. [Before we get there make sure to like TFE on facebook so you don't forget about us during the spring/summer. We hit it all year round!]

I've been an Oscar blogger for over ten years (yikes) and usually predicting the winners in the high profile categories is easy; it's about getting out of your own way since it's easy to overthink it and create scenarios which aren't likely to happen. This year is more volatile than usual, though, with Gravity, 12 Years a Slave, and American Hustle all displaying strength after strength during "precursor season" but meeting plenty of resistance, too, on their awards path. Anything might happen in Best Picture, which is not something you can usually say going into the big night. It'll be a groundbreaking night almost any way it turns out with a first in Best Director (first Hispanic winner or first black winner) and a first in Picture (first sci-fi winner or first film that's totally about black people) 

Oscar never presents the categories in the exact same order from year to year, but let's take these in the order the envelopes opened last year just as an outline on which to hang our predictions after the jump... 

Click to read more ...

Reading the Signs in the Stars for Best Original Song

Glenn here looking to the stars (and elsewhere) for hints on this year's higher profile than usual Original Song category. Ever since the fall out over Alone Yet Not Alone, Oscar's original song category has become far more competitive than I had originally imagined. I think we all figured "Let It Go" from Frozen would take it in a walk, no? But as more and more people come out of the woodwork in support of the other nominees, I'm wondering if that's quite the case anymore so I figure the best way to sort it out is to use arbitrary means of deduction.

What snow, Billboard charts, science, and Amy Poehler backrubs say about the race after the jump...

Click to read more ...

My Link Will Go On

Baz Bamigboye talks to an acting coach about the lead acting nominations
Washington Post Nick Davis dispels five Oscar myths
Buzzfeed Jennifer Lawrence and the types of Cool Girls
In Contention on the first Oscars concert. Sounds like it needs to become a tradition!
New York Theater on that West Side Story screening with Rita Moreno last week (I so wish all these things weren't happening DURING Oscar season. I have no time. Sad face.)  

BDCWire You know the McConaissance has gone over big when Matthew McConaughey starts winning comparisons to Brando and de Niro
VF live blogs the 1993 Oscars - twenty years ago looked suspiciously like now with Leonardo, an AIDS drama and more...
MNPP a review of Enemy which has been intermittently flashing into my brain since Toronto
Carpetbagger on the pundit confusion and predictions for the big night
Salon a reminder: Jennifer Lawrence doesn't want a second Oscar right now
We Recycle Movies charts some Oscar stats involving Best Picture and the original vs adapted situation 

Fun Interactives
Slate is really killing it this year and I'm not saying that because they did such a great job with my acceptance speech piece. This "name that screenplay" quiz is super weird/hard/gripping... I didn't do as well as I was expecting (I did get Braveheart, Crash, Schindler's List and Chicago on their first word clues but the rest were much harder for me)  but it was exciting to play. They've also got a tool where you can adjust percentages of what will win Best Picture based solely on math of which "lower" categories mean the most to a Best Picture win. It's worth noting that before you even begin they have Gravity as the projected winner with 37.5% to 12 Years' 35.1% and American Hustle's 27.4% so that's their baseline.  The percentages adjust as you click on winners. But usually Gravity comes out on top. (sigh) 

Today's Must See
People magazine did a little photoshop wonder pairing the nominees (and Tom Hanks?) with their younger selves with conversations. It's super cute/cheesy but somehow kind of wistful at the same time - neat trick.

Are you afraid of me? That's all right – I'm afraid of me, too." 

3 Days Til Oscar. Open Thread

A genie appears offering you three wishes. One of the wishes can't be more wishes (duh!) and this genie is an Oscar queen so he demands that all three wishes be about Oscar night. Go!

Here are mine if you need a moment to think about yours... 

1) That 12 Years a Slave wins Best Picture
2) That Kim Novak and Liza Minnelli's appearances go so spectacularly well that the Academy magically stops worrying about whether 14 year olds are watching and sets in motion plans to make the Oscars grander again with more living legends and classic film shoutouts that aren't as passionless as "montage celebrating ___". (Listen, genie. It's not like I'm asking that all of this minute's biggest stars share the other 364 days of the year but Oscar is one freaking night a year and it's about the grand tradition of the cinema. And you can't have grand traditions without having had a glorious past. And if you don't acknowledge the scale of that past, your tradition starts feels tremendously tiny and hollow.)
3) That someone on stages thanks The Film Experience catapulting yours truly and the site to global fame and fortune for all the thankless years of Oscar coverage (What? It's a free wish. I have to dream big because I like to be able to pay rent and eat and I want to keep doing this)