The 87th Academy Awards. Nominations Are Here!

Straight off the bat the happy shockers are Marion Cotillard for Two Days One Night (edging out Jennifer Aniston), Laura Dern for Wild (where many assumed Jessica Chastain would be), the weird surprise is Bennett Miller in Director for Foxcatcher, our first "lone director" nod since the Academy expanded the Best Picture field. In terrible news there were only two nominations (Best Picture & Song) for the grand Selma... which places it in the unfortunate company of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and The Blind Side. Yikes! In less horrific but still weird disappointing news: Nightcrawler pulled an Into the Wild by doing really well at the guilds but not so much with Oscar. 

Oscar had a boner for Birdman with many nominations

Grand Budapest Hotel and Birdman led the nominations with 9 honors each (though I correctly predicted Birdman being shut out of film editing so people will say it will have trouble winning now, statistically). You can see the complete nomination chart here. I'll be spending the day updating the individual charts with polls, stats, and whatnot. So Stay tuned! 

I got perfect scores in only four categories this year prediction wise:  Picture, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, and Makeup and Hair... though I'm proud of several individual predictions in my 4/5s categories like seeing The Hobbit's omission in Visual Effects and the love for Mr. Turner in a few places and I'm stunned to have gotten 4/5 in the always tricky sound categories. Unfortunately my very worst stat this year 3/5 came in two headline categories: Best Director and Best Actor! And the headline categories are usually the easiest.

How'd you do on your predictions and what was your happiest and saddest moment?

See also: Five Stage of Grief. Oscar Snubs and Why Wes? Why Now?

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Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

Best Picture
1-5
The big kahuna, the best picture category holds the key to all the other categories essentially. If you guess wrong here there's a domino effect since contributing to one of the 800 lb gorillas will always give you an advantage -- you can see that effect most clearly each year in the "contemporary" sections of the various guild awards when BP frontrunners always show up, no matter what films had more impressive achievements in that craft that particular year. The past few weeks have been tumultuous beyond the three locked up frontrunners: Boyhood, Birdman and The Imitation Game. You can also count on The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Theory of Everything since neither has faltered with precursors and both were surprising hits with audiences - yes even Theory (see Tina & Amy's great Golden Globes joke 'combines two things audiences love: crippling nerve disorders and super complicated math'). After those five it gets much trickier.

6-7
Despite its difficulty in the guild awards I'd still be surprised if they dared ignore Selma, which is a superbly crafted example of the exact type of film they generally go bonkers for, even if it's only half as good as Selma is: true story, message movie, great man bio. And yes, AMPAS got screeners. Given anecdotal evidence gathered at Oscar-schmoozy functions, I'm still betting that Whiplash makes it in despite a surprisingly weak run with audiences given that it's essentially a "crowd-pleaser". (No, I don't know what happened there.) In fact, for a long time I was predicting Damien Chazelle in Best Director and I'm still tempted to.

8-9
How many Best Picture nominees will we get? If the past years are any indication, 9, though wouldn't the point of the new rules (however many muster passionate support i.e. a certain percentage of votes) be more pointed if that number varied from year to year. Time to check the math again! The way I see it there are five films in play for these last two spots: Unbroken, Into the Woods, American Sniper, Gone Girl, and Nightcrawler. The box office business and hoopla during voting suggests Unbroken and Into the Woods, the guild awards suggest American Sniper and Nightcrawler and my heart suggests Gone Girl so I'm shedding a single tear for it. (yes, J.K. Simmons, a single tear -- What'cha gonna do about it?) Beyond those hopefuls there are six long shots that would be shocking at this point given various factors but it's worth noting that they all DO have devout fans: Foxcatcher, Ida, Interstellar, A Most Violent Year, Mr Turner and um er... Guardians of the Galaxy?

My predictions: 
Boyhood
Birdman
The Imitation Game
Grand Budapest Hotel
The Theory of Everything

if 6 then... Selma
if 7 then... Whiplash
if 8 then... American Sniper
if 9 then... Nightcrawler
if 10 (that's technically possible) then... Gone Girl 

BEST ACTRESS
See Previous Article I'm going with Julianne, Rosamund, Felicity, Jennifer, and Reese in the likeliest to fall position should Amy Adams or Marion Cotillard surprise. [chart]

BEST ACTOR
See Previous Article I'm going with Redmayne and Keaton as the only locks. Followed by Gyllenhaal, Oyelowo, and Cumberbatch... daringly suggesting he's the surprise snub if Carell, Fiennes, Cooper, or Mr Turner himself (aka Mr Spall) busts in. But I'm nervous for Oyelowo for sure. I could easily see him missing.  [see chart]

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
See Previous Article I'm going with the five the whole world's going with since precursors have been in lockstep: JK Simmons leading, with Norton, Hawke, Ruffalo and Duvall following. If someone drops out (with J.K. so far ahead you can make a case for him amassing so many #1 votes  that weird things happen with the off consensus ballots I'm guessing in this order for surprises: Pine, Brolin, Wilkinson, Waltz, Ahmed) [see chart]

She's at war here. And will she win to be nominated?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I've been debating long and hard on this category and am willing to take a risk. Alas, it's not predicting that Meryl Streep will fall for her singing witch. She's a default nominee (sometimes she deserves it, sometimes she doesn't, but she's always there. This year is the test of how much of a default nominee Jessica Chastain has become. We could call her Meryl Streep Jr (same late start, same focus on Ivy league actor's education, same chameleon explosion) except for that Amy Adams seems to have already claimed that in terms of Oscar love. It's not that Jessica isn't brilliant in A Most Violent Year -- she totally is! it may have become my favorite of her performances -- but that few people seem to be talking about the film and it's hard to be a lone nominee from your film in the supporting categories. With their Best Picture bolstering Keira and Emma and Patricia, the frontrunner, are all safe. That leaves one spot open. SAG went with Naomi, BAFTA went with Imelda & Rene, The Globes went with Jessica. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Rene Russo rises up with Nightcrawler cresting at just the right time to pull her weirdly precursor light knockout performance into the game.  If I'm offbase but there is a surprise it's either Tilda Swinton or Laura Dern instead of Russo. Even though I love all the possible surprises, I'm rooting for Jessica to make it and hoping the impossible occurs and we lose either Streep or Stone. 

Foreign Film 
I'm sticking with my long held assumption that these are the five: Tangerine (Estonia), Ida (Poland), Wild Tales (Argentina), Force Majeure (Sweden), and Timbuktu (Mauritania) which I realize leaves Leviathan out which makes no sense but... I don't want to drop Tangerine which has served me well (I predicted it long ago and people were surprised to see it in the finals) or Wild Tales because it stands out so much from the pack. [see chart] 

Animated Film
Sticking with my previous predictions. Song of the Sea has not been given any media attention but then neither had Secret of Kells, the previous wonder from the same filmmaker.  In the end I find it hard to imagine that a branch seeing both would prefer The Book of Life to this unique and uniquely beautiful tale. The question mark is of course the The Tale of The Princess Kaguya but I'm guessing the response wasn't rapturous enough to win the film the Studio Ghibli spot. So I think it's stop motion via Laika The Boxtrolls and the American CG trinity this year with Big Hero 6, Dragon 2, and The Lego Movie . If anything gets bumped unexpectedly I'm guessing it's The Boxtrolls.

Cinematography
The ACS chose Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Imitation Game, Mr Turner and Unbroken. They regularly go four/five with Oscar so the odd film out (if there is one) will surely be Imitation Game, yes? I'm opting for a foreign surprise via Ida's fascinating compositions and black and white minimalism. I could see Interstellar or either of Bradford Young's pictures (A Most Violent Year / Selma) surprising, too. Young did get a lot of press this year.

Production Design
The Art Directors Guild has many different categories so they don't give us a clear picture. But I'm guessing Imitation Game, Grand Budapest Hotel, and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. While I could see a snub happening for the brilliant post-talking apes world in the Apes film, I'm choosing not to predict it in order to stay sane. For the other two let's say Interstellar and, going out on a true limb (since it didn't figure into the guild awards), Mr Turner. If there's a spoiler let's chalk up the umpteenth nod for Birdman.

I'm predicting 4 nominations for Selma (wish it was more) including costume design

Costume Design
My favorite! While I'd love to see them being super discerning and go out on limbs like they do very occassionally, I'm guessing this is more of a 'stick to the major players' year. So with that said I'm guessing Grand Budapest Hotel, Selma, Into the Woods, and Mr Turner with the one off BP discussion pick being Maleficent. If there's a spoiler it's probably a BP nominee like Theory of Everything or Imitation Game. Or even Birdman for the legendary Albert Wolsky. But I tell you what: poor Louise Frogley (Unbroken) can't catch a break. She's done so much period work for major stars and never lucks out.

Film Editing
I'm guessing American Sniper, Boyhood, Whiplash, Imitation Game as my definites and for the fifth slot possible Nightcrawler. But it could be anything really. Let's say Grand Budapest Hotel as spoiler.

Visual Effects
The Oscar's vfx branch eventually gives up on all franchises so let's say they are FINALLY tired of Middle Earth (though it's a huge risk) and skip The Hobbit. So my guess is Guardians of the Galaxy, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Interstellar, Godzilla, and X-Men Days of Future Past

Makeup and Hair
I'm sticking with my long held predictions: Foxcatcher, Guardians of the Galaxy and Grand Budapest Hotel with Maleficent as spoiler 

Sound Editing
American Sniper, Birdman, Fury, Interstellar, Unbroken. I wanted to include Godzilla in the sound categories but it seems to have been forgotten.

Sound Mixing
American Sniper, Birdman,  Imitation Game, Interstellar, Into the Woods

Original Score
I'm guessing Theory of Everything, Interstellar,  and a double for Alexandre Desplate with Imitation Game and Grand Budapest Hotel.  The fifth slot is trickier. I dare not hope for Mica Levi's Under the Skin (the best score of the year) because it's just so out there. So i want to predict something off the beaten path like Dario Marianelli's Boxtrolls or Marco Beltrami's The Homesman (both amazing). But I'll go with Giacchino's Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Original Song
sticking with my original predictions because who knows with that branch: Lost Stars, Glory, Everything is Awesome, Not Gonna Miss You, Mercy Is 

Documentary Feature
I'm going with Citizenfour, Life Itself, Finding Vivian Maijer, The Overnighters, and Virunga 

Short Live Action
I'm going with Baghdad Messi, Butterlamp, The Phone Call, Carry On, Boogaloo and Graham

Short Documentary
I'm going with White Earth, Joanna, Kehinda Wiley, The Lion's Mouth Opens, Crisis Hotline 

Short Animated
I'm going with Bigger Picture, Duet, Feast, Me and My Moulton, The Damkeeper

Best Director
I saved the toughest category for last. Before completing this entry I've looked around at some other sites to see what people were calling and I'm noticing a lot of people being smart and just listing the DGA nominees again. This is, technically, the smartest thing to do since they usually go 4/5... but I'm always aiming for 5/5 which is why i take risks. But god, it's tough this year. Linklater, Inarritu, and Anderson appear to to be the safest while the Globes suggested Fincher and Duvernay and the DGA suggested Eastwood and Tyldum. BAFTA suggested Chazelle and James Marsh. For a long time I thought Duvernay and Chazelle would round it out. And lately I'd begun to suspect that Dan Gilroy might surprise via Nightcrawler. Tyldum is obviously a threat but it's unwise to bet against Eastwood with Oscar if the DGA approves since Oscar likes him even more. So I'm going to say Eastwood but that still leaves me with one open spot. I'm throwing caution to the wind and saying Chazelle but I'm rooting for Duvernay and boy will Oscar catch hell in the media if they pass up this chance to make history with her. 

The Golden Gyllenhaals. And Final Best Actor Predictions

In the cascade of perfect smiles, smh laughter at outre jokes, and general 'oh god the camera is on me now and I don't have a script' that is awards show reaction shows you may have missed the Jake Gyllenhaal and Maggie Gyllenhaal had pride of place at Sunday's Golden Globe ceremony, and received the very first reaction shot as Tina & Amy entered to host, their joke quote, "the 72nd and final Golden Globe Awards". The very first reaction shot. Even Oprah had to settle for second billing. 

It was a good night for the Gyllenhaals. They started the festivities with family nostalgia listening to "Graceland" in the limo (as they said on the red carpet), Maggie won for Best Actress in a Television Movie or Miniseries for The Honourable Woman, Jake was a very proud sibling and a nominee, and Jake's current Broadway co-star Ruth Wilson ("Constellations") was also a winner taking Best Actress in a Drama Series for The Affair.

Maggie's acceptance speech was a beauty

I love that she doesn't even disguise that she's "complicated" which Gone Girl reminds us is a code word for "bitch." Will any of this reminder of her screen power that the industry got in The Honourable Woman transfer back to the big screen in better parts?

Even Frances McDormand vaguely put up with Maggie's speech.. well, half of it anyway. She started fanning herself at one point which looked very dismissive oncamera until we read afterwards that the air conditioning was not working in the building, which explains all of the celebrities looking like they forgot to powder before taking the stage. 

But What About Jake?
He didn't win but with Nightcrawler picking up so much steam at various guilds, it seems reasonable to expect him to show up in the final five for Best Actor. I've decided to bet big and risky on Nightcrawler in my final Oscar predictions, so I'm saying he's in.

My Final Predictions
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, Theory of Everything 

Now, it is a tight race and anyone could fall out, really, with the exception of Redmayne & Keaton -- either of them missing would be a shocker. If someone does stumble my guess is that it's not Gyllenhaal since his film garnered so much surprising love late in the game, but either Oyelowo (if Selma underperforms) or *gasp* Cumberbatch... in kind of a Leo/Titanic moment. Bradley Cooper may be gaining steam with American Sniper but of the 9 performances left standing at this point (my predictions: plus Carell, Cooper, Fiennes, and Spall) Cooper's is literally the least showy. It's not too often where the least showy triumph, even if he is very good as the blindly patriotic kiling machine. But Just about the only attention-grabbing aspect of his turn is that he gained weight. He has approximately one scene you might call an 'Oscar clip'. Now, that might not stop AMPAS from nominating him if they're in a very Cooper place (Oscar, like the Emmys, does get into ruts where anything will do for certain performers) but are they? His two nominations were for super popular actors-branch obsessions with the whole cast receiving nominations. He'd have to pull this one off on his own.

Finally, my heart wants to predict Ralph Fiennes as the surprise that makes every bit of sense once it happens. But my head tells me that's entirely too much wishful thinking. The Oscars would never give me both Fiennes and Gyllenhaal. That would be too much abundance for this pundit whose taste in male actors is generally not sympatico with Oscar voters. 

DGA Nominations: Eastwood is Fashionably Late Yet Again

The Directors Guild of America have spoken and raised the Eastwood flag yet again. The 84 year old director cruised to a nomination for his conservative military drama American Sniper. It's his fourth nomination with the DGA. He has won twice before at the DGA and also received a Lifetime Achievement Award. The Academy has nominated him even more often for directing as American Sniper will be his fifth Best Director nomination should it come to pass. Eastwood has a habit of crashing the party late. He did it in 2004 with Million Dollar Baby when everyone was preparing for an Aviator sweep. He did it in 2006 with the tiny grossing nearly black and white foreign language film Letters from Iwo Jima and he looks like he'll do it again on Thursday for American Sniper.

DGA NOMINEES:

Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel
Clint Eastwood American Sniper
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

I promised you back when the Globe nominations were first announced that the Academy would never come up with a list that good for Best Director. While we won't know the truth of my prediction until Thursday morning, the DGA choices don't bode well for a happy Thursday morning for many of us. Congratulations to the nominees but, all due respect, Eastwood & Tyldum replacing Duvernay and Fincher is trading down if we're judging by the directing jobs in question and not by legendary reputations and best picture heat respectively.

But here's something to give you hope if you're already grousing about these nominations: In Ye Olden Times (i.e. 1970 through 2008) the DGA was considered the single most predictive precursor. This was not because the DGA lineup was always Oscar's lineup for Best Director. In fact, it rarely matches 5/5 but it was called that because it was the single most predictive of the Best Picture race (not Best Director). That is no longer the case -- or if it is it's lost all meaning since there can be up to 10 nominees for Best Picture now so it's easy to call five of them. But in Ye Olden Times, i.e. up until seven years ago, today's announcement would mean that American Sniper was probably going to edge out another movie we thought was more strongly in the mix like The Theory of Everything or Selma.

Here are some recent history switcheroos from DGA to Oscar

2013 DGA (4/5) Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips. Oscar replaced with Alexander Payne for Nebraska.
2012 DGA (2/5) Hooper, Affleck, Bigelow. Oscar replaced with Haneke, Zeitiln, and Russell
2011 DGA (4/5) Fincher, Dragon Tattoo. Oscar replaced with Malick for Tree of Life
2010 DGA (4/5) Nolan, Inception. Oscar replaced with the Coen Bros for True Grit
2009 DGA (5/5) 
2008 DGA (4/5) Nolan, Dark Knight. Oscar replaced with Stephen Daldry for The Reader
2007 DGA (4/5) Sean Penn, Into the Wild. Oscar replaced with Jason Reitman for Juno 
2006 DGA (3/5) Dayton/Faris and Condon. Oscar replaced with Greengrass and Eastwood 
2005 DGA (5/5)

There's not much of a pattern though both of the recent years with perfect matches were very much consensus years where it was the same five titles all the time. 2014 is not that kind of year. When Oscar makes a change they trade both up and down... the only throughline, and it has exceptions, is that Oscar's directing branch tends to be a little more artistically inclined than DGA's more populist tastes. So the people who didn't make it today are still in it: James Marsh has a BAFTA nod to recommend him, Ava Duvernay has a critically acclaimed resonant film, Damien Chazelle is a new boy wonder (and they love those since its the old boys club) and David Fincher is, well, David Fincher with a huge hit. One of them could surely still knock one of the DGA contenders out. But who and which?

Final predictions soon. Need some time to think on it. Thoughts?  

Top Five Golden Globes Speeches

Margaret with more on Sunday's Golden Globes...

Awards show speeches are weird and wonderful things. They’re awkward and rushed, they hold the weight of hundreds of peoples’ expectations, and they are bound to disappoint or offend somebody no matter what they contain.

Since the Golden Globes are the first big ceremony of awards season (People's Choice A-whats? Haven't heard of 'em), the winners have their work cut out for them to be memorable and charming and humble enough to make their new statuette the first of many.

Below we have a roundup of my picks for best movie-category speeches of the night, plus some speculation about whether they might influence the Oscar race. (For wins, not nominations, since the voting is closed and they're now set in stone.)

Honorable mention goes to Just-Keep-Simmons for his amusingly gruff speech ("I think I only have 45 seconds, so shut up").

5. Wes Anderson – Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy (Grand Budapest Hotel)

Oh, Wes Anderson. Never change! I mean, look at him. Look how uncomfortable he is, how his eyes are locked to his notes. Look at that slightly crooked bowtie. So many ‘um’s and ‘uh’s. He does not want to be the center of attention. If we needed any proof that he’s not the awards-campaigning type, we have it now. It’s lovely to see a Grand Budapest Hotel win, and that could mean that it's got a more solid shot at an Best Picture Oscar nomination than most of us dare hope... but then again, the HFPA often marches to the beat of their own drummer.

4. Julianne Moore – Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama (Still Alice)

Remember when we never got to watch Julianne win anything? Judging by her adorably delighted reaction, the thrill is a fresh one. She shares a lovely dictum from her mother (“a happy person is someone who has work and love”) and gets choked up thanking her family. On the cynical side, the speech hit all the right marks. People love their frontrunners (especially women—boo) to be humble and surprised and emotional when they win. A good move towards Oscar.

3. Michael Keaton - Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy (Birdman)

Sure, it’s a little long (more obvious since it came near the end of the late-running program), but he’s telling a story instead of listing off names, and in the dynastic industry that is Hollywood it’s refreshing to hear from people who were born far from the business. Also: he produced actual tears as he choked out a touching tribute to his son (“Two things I wasn’t gonna do—cry, and give air quotes—damn”), and we all know Oscar loves a good manful cry. This may have pushed him into winner territory.

2. Patricia Arquette - Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture (Boyhood)

The win was an expected one, but it was no less enjoyable for that. She’s concentrating so hard on getting all her written words out (“Sorry I’m the only nerd with a piece of paper”), but you can just see the immense feeling threatening to bubble out as she gives sweet, genuine thanks to her movie family. It’s clear that the role and the film mean very, very much to her. No major shakeups from this speech; it seems pretty clear she’s headed straight to the Dolby podium.

1. Common and John Legend - Best Original Song in a Motion Picture (Selma)

Potent, stirring, beautifully put.  What every awards speech should be if it possibly can. Common did almost all of the talking, more about Selma itself than the winning song, and put the focus back where it should be: “Selma has awakened my humanity… Selma is now.” If there’s any justice (there isn’t), this would be making the rounds among all the people crying “historical inaccuracy!!” and giving them something else to think about. Good for their awards chances as songwriters, good for the film as a whole. Bonus points for making Oprah cry. 

What were your favorite speeches of the night? Who didn't win that you'd like to hear a speech from soon?