Oscar Race: Best Costume Design

We aren't going to find out what the Costume Designer's Guild thinks of this past year in film until March 4th, literally the day before Oscar nomination ballots go out. That gives us two weeks still to believe that all things are possible still in this category, though obviously the season to date will have an effect on the outcome. Here are what we think are the top ten contenders in descending order of probability (though this ranking should not be seen as a meritocracy but merely punditry).

PREDICTIONS

the only lock?

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Oscar Race: Best Cinematography

Here's an interesting punditry challenge. We aren't going to find out what the American Society of Cinematographers feels about this past year in cinema until March 9th, which is the day before the Academy's ballots are due. This allows us one whole month to wonder what the cinematographers in the industry are feeling about what they're looking at. Anything is possible, really, until it's not. Remember when Germany's Never Look Away scored an out of nowhere nod just two years ago? Here's what our crystal ball says right now though its imagery isn't always in focus.

PREDICTIONS

the only locks...

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How many female directors are going to be nominated?

by Juan Carlos Ojano

In hindsight, concerns that "there are no movies" or cries to "cancel the Oscars" during the pandemic were premature and also insulting. We could lament all the films postponed or we could embrace the extraordinary films we got. 2020 was a rich year of diverse voices behind the movies. That happily translated to the awards conversation: BIPOC and female filmmakers have had an unprecedented presence in the run up to the Oscar nominations.

Looking back at Oscar history, only five women have been nominated for Best Director...

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Let's talk about Oscar's screenplay races

by Nathaniel R

"Mank" is about the writing of a legendary screenplay. That should do the trick.

Are there locks in the Screenplay categories? At the moment both races feel almost settled (aside from hugely competitive fifth slots) though the WGA nominations arrive on February 16th which could theoretically disrupt the consensus punditry.

ORIGINAL
In the original race Mank, Minari, Promising Young Woman, and Trial of the Chicago 7 all feel like certainties but are they? That's too many locks prior to the WGA nominations and leaves only one spot open. That hypothetical fifth spot battle has a lot of strong fighters...

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The Academy Shortlists Have Arrived

As most of you reading probably know, there are nine Oscar categories that go through rounds of voting rather than just one ballot for the nominations. So each year the Academy narrows the field in these nine categories a few weeks to a month before the final nominations. Anything not listed below is no longer possible as a nominee in that specific category, since the ballots will only include these choices. (Curiously they don't do this winnowing process with one of the specialized categories, Best Animated Feature, so all 27 eligible films in that category are still possible as nominees.) The Academy will vote on the actual nominations between March 5th and March 10th and the Oscar nominatitons will be announced on March 15th, 2021. Then we'll have an unusually long wait for Oscar night on April 25th, 2021.

Here are the shortlists... 

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