Green Book wins the PGA. Is Oscar next?

by Nathaniel R

Peter Farrelly accepting the Outstanding Producer for Theatrical Motion Pictures award for "Green Book"

The weekend before the Oscar nominations, Green Book gets another feather in its divisive cap. It took the top PGA prize last night. It was nominated against Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, A Quiet Place, Roma, A Star is Born, and Vice... most but not all of which will transfer to Oscar Best Picture nominations if past statistics hold. In the nine years of the modern Best Picture era (by which we mean 2009 and onward when the field expanded) only three movies have won the PGA that did not repeat at the Oscars: Gravity (2013), The Big Short  (2015), and La La Land  (2016). But it's really only two since Gravity tied at the PGA with 12 Years a Slave (the latter of which did not have to share the Oscar for Best Picture). This year's race will give us an even ten years of statistics in this new era. So by the end of the season, future PGA winners will feel like they have either a 70% or an 80% of winning the Oscar. Either way it's something to worry about if you don't like Green Book, and something to cheer for, if you do...

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VES Nominations & Final Visual Effects Oscar Predictions

by Nathaniel R

on the set of Solo: A Star Wars Story

The Visual Effects Society have released their nominations for the year. Avengers: Infinity War, Incredible 2, and Lost in Space lead the nominations in the movie, animated movie, and television divisions.  The full list of nominations, Oscar predictions, and a few comments follow...

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USC Scripter Noms & Final Screenplay Predictions

The USC Libraries, chaired by USC professor Howard Rodman, that began in 1988. Though they can signify strength moving into Oscar nominations, it's important to remember that they're a juried award from a college so not connected to the Oscar voting body, though perhaps Rodman himself is a member since he as once president of the WGA.  

Their nominations as well as our final predictions for Oscar's Screenplay categories are after the jump...

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Critics Choice Movie Awards Live Blog

by Nathaniel R

7:30 It took me 15 minutes to find a live stream but I unfortunately found it just in time to see a frankly hideous video mix which used this strange early photoshop spotlight effect on movie clips so the actors were lit up and everything else was blacked out. Taye Diggs was introduced as a 'chocolatey heartthrob'. He launched into a musical performance which was........ ........   ........... ........ .........Yes, Taye Diggs is very handsome!

7:32 Lady Gaga wins Best Song for "Shallow". Who knew Peter Farrelly was such a fan, giving her a standing ovation. She thanks Bradley Cooper profusely and smartly talks about his transformation into Jackson Maine (we need people to talk about this amazing performance.  "I was mesmerized both for myself and my character" Wait, they're different people? Kidding.

7:38 Best Young Actor or Actress goes to Elsie Fisher with reaction shots from Thomasin McKenzie and Amandla Stenberg, who both seem unfussed about losing, already pros they are.

As someone who has anxiety, it's exciting to be on this stage right now.

Tee hee. Sadly, though Elsie throws up a peace hand sign, she doesn't say "Gucci" but 'Peace and love, y'all'...

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Austin moves to "Beale St." and AWFJ loves "Roma"

by Nathaniel R

How many critics groups are left? We honestly lose track!

Today we're looking at two more. First is the Austin Film Critics Association who were the only group brave enough in 2006 to step away from Helen Mirren's inexplicable steamroll for The Queen in a Best Actress year that was insane with great options (their iconoclastic choice that year: Ellen Page in Hard Candy). This year though they haven't strayed very far from consensus except that they gave Roma only one prize (!).

The Alliance of Women Film Journalists also announced their prizes which are an exact carbon copy, down the line, of critical consensus leaders, so it's a good thing they have several unusual categories, too. Here are the results...

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