Oscar Chart: Who gets the fifth slot in Best Supporting Actress?

by Nathaniel R

Will there be room for both Anitas in the Best Supporting Actress race?

Nothing much has changed in the Best Supporting Actress competition over the past month except the arrival of West Side Story but, provided you left a slot open for the new "Anita" (Ariana DeBose) sight unseen -- since that role is always an awards magnet --  chances are your predictions haven't changed much since seeing the film. Even all the critics prizes and the arrival of the bigger precursors like NBR, Globe, Spirits, Gothams, and Critics Choice nods did a grand total of not much to solve the question of the "fifth slot"... only to cement that we have four near-sure things: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Kirsten Dunst (Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), and Caitriona Balfe (Belfast) who keep showing up in every list.

So who gets that fifth slot? That is the loaded multi-actress question...

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Oscar Chart: Best Supporting Actor's potential spoilers

by Nathaniel R

We live in fear of a Jared Leto nomination. Do you?

When we last dove deep into Best Supporting Actor just over a month ago it felt like there were 10-20 contenders still in the conversation. Sadly once the critics began to throw their weight entirely behind just two contender (Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog and Troy Kotsur in CODA) and the Globes and the Critics Choice came up with almost identical lists  (Kodi + Troy + Ciaran Hinds and Jamie Dornan from Belfast) the race began to look unlike a race at all but more of a slow waiting game until the Oscar nominations which are still five weeks away.

Is there reason to hope for the race to widen again? We'd like to think so...

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"No Way Home" and Oscar Dreams. Or, When advocacy goes wrong...

by Nathaniel R

There are some that argue that Oscar pundits shouldn't be critics or vice versa. Prognostication and film criticism both require analytical skills but they're different jobs. The lines get murkier when it comes to advocacy. Each media outlet produces more Oscar coverage than we have ever had in the past. It's subversively hilarious that as Oscar ratings have steadily dwindled in the era of splintering audiences, discussion and analysis of the awards race is noisier and more populated each year! Yet, if the proliferation of film critics organizations has taught us anything it's that if you get enough film types in a room to talk "Best"... they will immediately, whether consciously or not, begin to equate Best with Oscars. That's how successful the Oscars have been as a name brand and institution. You can see it in the prizes given each year in the precursor awards and how eagerly space is handed over to presumed Oscar hopefuls that don't really need the boost. Even while the same journalists and outlets, who vote on the preliminary prizes, regularly bemoan that 'Oscars never get it right'. Advocacy doesn't equal prognostication but it looks too much like it at times.

Into this mess of adjacent but not always compatible agendas, comes the superhero blockbuster. In this case, Spider-Man: No Way Home which is suddenly getting the "nominate it for Best Picture!" discussion...

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Academy Shortlists Announced

Directly from the Academy, here's word on which films and craft achievements are moving on in the 10 Oscar categories that use a winnowing process either multiple rounds of voting or "bakeoffs" as they're called within the craft communities.

It was a good day for Lin-Manuel Miranda movies, Marvel movies, Bond's latest, and Matrix Ressurection. And a mixed-message day for Cyrano and Nightmare Alley (which didn't score everywhere they could) and a terrible day for Titane (which missed both the international finals and the makeup finals). The press release and some very quick commentary after the jump...

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Oscar Finalist List Predictions!

by Nathaniel R

On Monday (December 21st) we'll be hearing the Oscar finalists list in the 10 categories that use that process to winnow down the vast array of possibilities before nomination balloting. There were 9 previously but Oscar has added Sound into the mix this year. That category has had quite a rollercoaster of late, given that it was two categories just two years ago, it was conjoined for 2020, and now it joins the "bakeoff" groups; in short it's getting smaller and smaller each year! After Monday's massive reveal we can really dig in to each Oscar race (and closely revamp each Oscar chart) individually. Isn't it strange that the finalist lists in these 10 categories are coming so much earlier than the actual nomination ballots (which don't go out for another 5 and a 1/2 weeks.

Anyway, let's quickly predict the finalist lists, shall we? You can use this cheat sheet to laugh at me or praise me later, depending on my success rate. If there's a link we've previously written about the picture...

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