Naked Gold Man: Final Oscar Predictions !
Saturday, January 21, 2012 at 5:25PM 
I've never been good at math so predicting this year's Oscar race feels especially challenging. You can tell me that a picture requires 5% of #1 votes or that it's 10% or 406 votes or that you need #2 or #3 placements on 69.3% of ballots with odd #1 choices that weren't already tossed aside... None of it will really sink in. For the first time in well over a decade, I had a flashback to my high school algebra class and how my friends (who were in calculus) kept teasing me about my "polynomials?" confusion. I hate math!*
But in the end what does it matter? Buzz, also an abstraction, is more fun to play with and closer to the truth for non-mathematicians. Best Picture nominations have long required #1 votes, maybe not in the same configurations but they've always required them. And as Joe recently pointed out on the podcast, we're tricked into thinking too deeply about this each and every year. Who thought Frost/Nixon was the best movie of 2008? Who would ever have voted for Chocolat as the best film of 2000? And yet it happens year in and year out. Focusing too much on #1 votes can cloud this certainty: Any film still being discussed as a possibility this late in the game has a fanbase. The question is just 'is that base big / loyal enough within the Academy to secure it a best picture nomination?'
Mo'Nique reading the Best Picture nominees last year!
What Happens With The Screens Behind the Presenters?
For the first time in modern history we'll have no idea until the names are read whether there will be five, six, seven, eight, nine or ten nominees. In past years when they announced the nominees you'd see the blank boxes where the nominees would be revealed while they read out the names. You knew, for instance, if there would be 3 or 5 animated nominees by how many boxes were there even if you hadn't been paying attention to the number of eligible pictures released.
My current hourly obsession is wondering whether we'll be tipped off to how many pictures there are seconds before we hear the titles...
When we knew there would be ten they simply appeared as they were read but there weren't actually boxes behind the announcers to be filled in as there were in years with five. You follow? So this year if there are, say, 6 nominees will we first see the empty boxes and KNOW there will be six before the names are read?
PICTURE
If we only had five nominees, this race would be easy to call. Our nominees would be: The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, and Midnight in Paris. And in that order of likelihood. (My preference order, just as reminder from my year in review, would be The Artist, Midnight in Paris, The Help, Hugo and The Descendants.) I believe the nomination tally hierarchy is going to be Hugo, The Artist, and The Help way out in front of other films. Moneyball would, I think, be the spoiler in a traditional shortlist year. No matter how you feel about those films on an individual basis, as a group that's a pretty beautiful spread of the film year: message movies, family dramas, cinematic novelties, smart comedies and releases stretching from summer to Christmas, from critical triumphs to sleeper hits. It's representative and we like the Oscars that way.
But there could be six, seven, eight, nine... even ten nominees this year! Since we've never had a year like this one before no one knows how it will play out. No one. You could be John Nash and the math still wouldn't help any more than general buzz does. The most we know is the Academy's own statements that when they tested this new system out retroactively over the past ten years worth of ballots they had years with everything from five to nine nominees. Technically ten is possible but ten never came up in their retrospective recalculations.
My Predictions
- The Artist
- The Descendants
- The Help
- Hugo
- Midnight in Paris
- Moneyball
Though this year does seem to be a year with a widespread set of films with AMPAS appeal, everything beyond what I'm predicting as the nominees seems to have major impediments. (Or perhaps imagined ones...we'll know on Tuesday). While it's easy to imagine The Tree of Life, Drive, or War Horse getting #1 votes, it's also hard to imagine them triumphing after their poor showings in the guild nominations. And if you start to play the "which films will get #1 votes?" game, you're going to have 20 films in the running instead of 10. If you take the guild results super seriously, than The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and Bridesmaids are both very much in the running. But if you can remember anything beyond the last two years of ten-wide lists, they don't really look at all like Best Pictures in terms of genre or intent or even, in Dragon Tattoo's case, the size of its gross. Usually films which veer towards the violent thriller genre require huge box office returns. Would The Silence of the Lambs, to cite a quick ancestor, have generated as much love with Oscar, despite its quality, if it hadn't been such a supersized success? Dragon Tattoo is no Silence. It's not even, some would argue, as good as David Fincher's previous two serial killer pictures Se7en (one nomination: film editing), and Zodiac (zero nominations) but those came before Fincher's induction into Oscar's club so they weren't as ready to honor him. Reputation means a lot for Oscar traction so maybe this will happen. But I'm doubtful.
DIRECTOR
It's foolish to doubt the candidacy strength of any of the DGA nominees each year which means that Allen, Fincher, Hazanavicius, Payne and Scorsese are all in the running. But it's also foolish to assume that the DGA will transfer totally intact. It rarely does and it happened just last year so the odds are against it. It's usually closer to 4 of 5 and 3 out of 5 is hardly unheard of. I'm guessing that Fincher falls to Malick, a director's director and a legend rather than a legend in the making.
ACTRESS
In this age of awards mania the internet usually moves on to "who will win?" LONG before we even know the nominees. All anyone has been talking about for the past couple of months is Viola vs. Meryl and before that it was months of Meryl vs. Glenn. The big question mark is whether that late cross-guild surge for Dragon Tattoo will fuel momentum for Rooney Mara. It might but I'm not going to bet on it. Guess how many votes the art directors, editors, directors, producers, and writers get when determining the Best Actress nominees? Zero. Yep, you're right. Only actors can nominate actors. The way I see it we have four women in the running for the 4th and 5th spot. The question is only whether they love Mara's new star narrative more than they love Tilda Swinton's art queen dominance. Tilda has had three years of worth of huge critical acclaim as an improbable headliner (just try to find a correlative movie star) post Oscar win is pretty damn impressive. Or maybe the question is whether they love Charlize Theron's comedic character work more than Glenn Close's dream project narrative. I'm guessing: Streep, Davis, Williams, Close and Swinton hang onto their SAG momentum.
P.S. I don't see Close as all that vulnerable. Dream project narratives tend to make that gold man shine with pride over his favored children.
ACTOR
This is where I'm taking my biggest risk. It's just a hunch but despite a lack of interest in him from the precursor voting bodies, I haven't been able to shake the feeling that Michael Shannon is going to show up. I'm guessing he replaces Michael Fassbender (despite Fassbender's great year). Why am I still predicting the buzz free Leonardo DiCaprio? I've learned that my own personal distaste for those effortful biopic performances and those uneven performances in Eastwood pictures (this one being both) is not remotely in line with the tastes of the Academy who tend to enjoy both of those things enormously. I'm happy to be proven wrong but right now I see Clooney, Pitt, Dujardin, DiCaprio and Shannon... but I think it's a very very close race for the fourth and fifth spots and if it's not Shannon & Leo, it could easily be Fassbender & Oldman, you know?
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Six women have been constantly propped up by precursors but there are only five slots. Toss a coin. Earlier my hunch for the ousting was Bejo or McCarthy... now it's Woodley. It keeps changing so I'm just tossing a coin. My guess: Shai on the outside looking in. But really it could be anyone besides Octavia Spencer.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
If there's an acting category we know less about than we think we know, it has to be this one. There has been so little discussion beyond the trio of Christopher Plummer, Albert Brooks and Kenneth Branagh. Whenever anyone gets out front super early and stays there with the strength that Plummer has, conversation below him or her tends to dry up. There is theoretically the possibility that a lot of other favorites exist that are just not being heavily i.e. publicly discussed. I wanted to predict Corey Stoll as a surprise (best picture coattails + great performance) but I don't want to jinx something that I'm sure is wishful thinking on my part... and I'm using my one wishful thinking allowance up in Best Original Screenplay.
So I'm sticking to the usual suspects: Plummer, Brooks, Branagh, Nolte and Hill. I don't quite believe in the Jonah Hill Moneyball nomination but I also can't really see who replaces him with anything like confidence though neither he nor Nolte strike me as particularly invulnerable. I'm just having a hard time picturing who among Stoll, Oswalt, and Mortensen can find enough rallying power to unseat them. Hell, if the voting is totally turbulent we might even see Armie Hammer smothering them all with his old age latex.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
To me this is the most volatile nomination competition (this year) outside of the big six. The WGA nominations which went to Midnight in Paris, Bridesmaids, 50/50, Win Win and Young Adult tell us (potentially) little since buzzy limited release writer-friendly movies like Take Shelter, Beginners, and Margin Call and the BP frontrunner The Artist and traditional bait like The Iron Lady were not eligible. I'm going with Midnight in Paris, Bridesmaids, 50/50, The Artist and the one wishful thinking move I allow myself this late in the prediction game is going to go to A Separation. Hey, if they watched their screeners and ever once thought about its LAFCA win, why wouldn't they vote for it? It's brilliantly constructed.
I expect that a lot of pundits will be sticking with Win Win which is probably a good guess since the people who love that movie feel warmly towards it. But it's interesting to note that Win Win's writer/director Thomas McCarthy has never been nominated for one of his own pictures. His sole Oscar nomination is for writing Pixar's Up. He wasn't nominated for The Visitor or The Station Agent despite their awards buzz.
SOUND I find these categories interesting in a very particular way this year. You've got two franchises in the running that both tend to do well here Transformers & Pirates of The Caribbean but you've also got all these new films with major sound elements like Rise of the Planet of the Apes and Super 8 and the Cinema Audio Society nominees which went in a different direction somewhat from the blockbusters and toward the Best Pic hopefuls like Hugo and Moneyball.
Oscar can be weird with franchises, giving them the same nominations each time or abruptly ignoring them or alternating years in which they're honored and for somewhat arbitrary reasons (I still can't figure out that Deathly Hallows Part 1 Art Direction nomination). Guessing what they'll do can feel a bit like throwing darts at a board. Why, for instance, did Oscar find the first two Pirates movies worthy of dual sound nominations but no such nominations for the third film? Will the siren call of the mermaids win them dual nominations again or are the Giant Robots going to muscle their way back in or will they both be pushed over for brainy Apes or Superheroes. Won't honoring these franchises each time make the Oscars remarkably like the Emmys? Would love to get your perspective on this one. The question of what to do with similar annual achievements in franchises looks to become an increasing problem for the Oscars since franchises are truly dominating Hollywood culture these days.
COMPLETE PREDICTION INDEX | PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTRESS | ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SCREENPLAYS | VISUAL CATEGORIES - we'll talk a lot more about these categories after the nominations. We like pretty things. | AURAL CATEGORIES | ANIMATED FILM | FOREIGN FILM |
With final predictions out of the way... it's time for me to get back to work on my own awards, future articles and building some charts so that Tuesday morning's tidal wave of information doesn't catch me unaware! Finally, a reminder: I'll be here tomorrow morning at 11 am for a live chat if you'd like to join us.
* For the record the best explanation of the best picture voting I've read -- because it doesn't get all math nerd but still explains it -- is over at Mark Harris's column.
Reader Comments (42)
Has anyone been following the fine-tuning of the rules I keep hearing about? Would six nominees mean that no other film had gotten 5% of the votes? I do imagine Drive or Tree of Life has a good shot at picking up 5%, because that's, what, 200 people (assuming they don't all vote)?
I was reading someone speculating that the Academy may at one point become too successful at recruiting younger and more non-traditional members, and see a really outré set of nominees. I do wonder if that balance will ever be tipped, and we'll wake up and have a really fun nominee morning. That said, I think some of the voters become more mainstream than we would at first guess, since it's such a chummy business. Tarantino released his favorite list not long ago, and he picked Midnight in Paris. If he's not on the Melancholia or Drive trains, I'm not sure who would be.
Perhaps this is my own wishful thinking, but it seems to me that Brad Pitt is still very much in that Stoll-Mortensen-Hammer best supporting actor mix. I'll be really bored if Christopher Plummer is the only nominee from my own top 5, which is the same as yours, Nathaniel.
Nice post. Makes sense to me. We'll see. Is there one nomination possibility in any category that you think could be a true surprise? Maybe something that you think probably would never happen but could, and has -- in some analogous way -- in the past?
Marsha -- the best description I've read of the voting math thus far is at Mark Harris's Grantland column I call it the best because it really doesn't get caught up with the math of it but still explains it enough to transfer that feeling on to the movies.
The most interesting point -- that I hadn't previously understood is this:
I hadn't understand this before but after five nominees, it gets MUCH harder to be nominated. I had kind of looked at each nomination as the same percentage battle... but i hadn't stopped to consider that if your frontrunners are way out front (if the top four are hogging most of the #1s) you're not going to have a long long list of nominees). So in a way this new system will only find a huge amount of nominees if we have a really really divisive year and I'm not sure that we could safely call this year all that divisive though it has had a bit of nice range.who knows. it's the first time!
I'm hoping that Drive and/or Tree of Life get in, Tilda and Charlize are nominated for Best Actress, and Albert Brooks gets in for Supporting Actor.
It will be pretty damn funny if the Best Picture line-up ends up only being 5. I will chuckle.
Get ready for an Albert Brooks snub. The actors really have not been voting for him As you said, only actors can nominate actors so I am struggling to see how he gets in without SAG and the Bafta chapter vote (he missed the nomination too, but I'm not sure if that was only actors voting).
Get ready for an Albert Brooks snub. The actors really have not been voting for him As you said, only actors can nominate actors so I am struggling to see how he gets in without SAG and the Bafta chapter vote (he missed the nomination too, but I'm not sure if that was only actors voting).
Sorry about those repeat posts, don't know what happened.
I'm suprised you think Close is less vulnerable than Swinton. Swinton has been nominated across the board just like the presumed three frontrunners. I think that last spot is between Close and Theron. Mara has a shot, maybe, but I haven't heard the same amount of buzz around her as I have with Lizzie Olsen (who unfortunately is out) and Kirsten Dunst. Like you said, actors will be doing all the voting so I feel like they would go with the more esteemed candidates like Close, Swinton, and Theron.
My dream lineup would be: 1) Williams 2) Swinton 3) Streep 4) Theron 5) Weiz (Deep Blue Sea)
*surprised
Your BP predictions look about right to me ... and, man, this might be the most ambivalent I've felt about a Best Picture lineup ever. Last year's 10 was such an interesting mix of diverse movies people were talking about. What a letdown.
Since the Academy doesn't release vote totals ever, it would be cool if some intrepid polling organization could take it upon themselves to poll academy members for their Best Picture first choices. Do a horse race poll like they do in politics. Not all the time - once a year, right before the nominations come out, maybe. I doubt the academy would stand for such a thing, but it would certainly be interesting to see
Your predictions seem about right, unfortunately. MY WISHES:
BEST ACTOR
Fassbender and Shannon both get in - DiCaprio gets the boot.
BEST ACTRESS
Elizabeth Olsen and Charlize Theron kick out Streep and Close.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Patton Oswalt replaces Jonah Hill.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Woodley shuts out McCarthy.
I think people are grossly underestimating the Ides of March. Clooney + Gosling + political drama seems like pablum for the Academy.
I think it will be competitive for a 7th or 8th spot.
I actually have the same predictions as you in the top 6 categories, except that I do think Leo will get the snub and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will get in for Picture (but not Director). I hope they shake things up at least a little bit, because most of the predictions I've seen are extremely similar.
So just in the interest of having more exciting predictions, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Carey Mulligan sneaks in a surprise Supporting Actress nomination. So I'm going with Bejo, Chastain, Spencer, McTeer, and Mulligan. Unlikely, but hey, I want to at least have one really bold prediction.
For shits and giggles, what would the BP lineup look if we were guaranteed 10 nominees like the past two years?
I'd say:
Hugo
The Help
The Artist
The Descendants
Moneyball
Midnight in Paris
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
Drive
Tree of Life
Those last two are the ones I'd be least sure about in a ten picture year. Maybe Bridesmaids sneaks in?
@Jonathon: Your supporting actor/actress wishes are EXACTLY mine. I'm really hoping Hill is just the Mila Kunis of this season. Hot with the Globes and Guilds, but ultimately missing out on Oscar because the performance just isn't really all that interesting. And Woodley over McCarthy is simply a matter of preference, since I really don't see what McCarthy did, exactly, other than be likeable IRL in order to get this kind of attention. It sure wasn't the performance.
As for my predictions, I'll just settle with making NGNG calls:
-Demian Bichir gets in for "A Better Life." Over who? Don't know. But he gets in.
-Keira Knightley gets in for "A Dangerous Method," as per the Cronenbergian method of getting a rather showy supporting performance nominated in a film that's otherwise ignored.
-As for the possibility of Mara getting in for BA, I doubt it, if only because while Oscar likes to award 1) new pretty young things and 2) Actresses who ugly up for a role, her role kind of obfuscates just how pretty (gorgeous, really) Rooney Mara is, and they have to know you first before de-glamming will work. Also the aforementioned fact that only actors vote for other actors. She COULD feasibly get in, but it strains credulity, for me, to imagine she would knock out someone as respected as Glenn Close or Tilda Swinton.
-Three song nominees this year, with no "Living Proof," "Star-Spangled Man," or "Lay Your Head Down." Just "Masterpiece" and two Muppet songs.
-The Artist and The Descendants tie for fewest nominations among the BP nominees, whatever they might be.
-"A Separation" sneaks in for Best Picture.
Those are my NGNGs, since my actual predictions line up pretty well with Nat's, except I'm almost positive we're getting 7 BP nominees this year. I don't know why, but I've felt 7 since the rule change was announced, and I feel the season has somewhat borne that out.
Lastly,
-@Nathaniel: Don't undersell your supporting actor hunches. You spent the entirety of 2008 predicting Michael Shannon for "Revolutionary Road" despite almost no evidence (if any at all, whatsoever) to support it. You dumped him at the eleventh hour, and whose name gets called out last to a whooping cheer from the press at the nominations announcement? You're better at picking the surprises than you think, Nat. ;)
You are a very wise, insightful prognosticator as always Nathaniel. Here's one thing I'm curious about: I think your Shannon Surprise theory is very credible. I was thinking both Fassy and Shannon would get through for a while, but yeah, it's very understandable that love for those two men are amongst the same general voting block, while Leo has some strange other block that can sail him on through. I'm praying for Shannon, it was my favorite performance of the year. BUT do you think Carey Mulligan could sneak into Supporting Actress without Fassy in Actor? ...I feel like it could happen. If the actors vote her at no 1 out of guilt for not putting Fassy first. Could happen.
I also hope Supporting Actor has a surprise in store. Such a dull roster this year!
Who would ever have voted for Chocolat as the best film of 2000?
Me, right here. Of course, I'm not an Academy member and it was the only Best Picture nominee I had seen in theaters that year.
Then again, almost 12 years later, it's still my favorite film of 2000. So what do I know?
I still think Young Adult is getting in for Original Screenplay. If not, I get to rant and rail to the winds about the worst snub of the year (not connected to genre films) until the trophy is handed out.
I finally watched both The Ides of March and Moneyball this morning. It baffles me that Jonah Hill is getting so much traction from this roll. I'm surprised Phillip Seymour Hoffman isn't the one their pushing for the supporting nom in Moneyball; it was half over before I realized it was him playing Art Howe. He was a lot more understated than what he normally is, especially after having just seen his IN YOUR FACE performance in Ides.
That Mark Harris quote is VERY misleading because it doesn't take into account the surplus rule which has always existed and still does in this system. When a movie gets over 20% of 1st place votes, a partial vote goes to each ballot's second choice if that movie is in the running, if not then the third etc. So that whole reasoning he mentions isn't valid.
I just want it back to 5 nominations for best pic!
Jamie -- me too. but we'll see how this plays out.
You preferred "The Help" over "Hugo"?!?
I'm thinking they just might announce the number of BP nominees prior to naming them, much like that time at the Golden Globes a few years back when they prefaced the Best Picture-Drama nominations announcement with "We have seven nominees." (You're really obsessing over this? I thought my OCD was bad.)
It would be great is Shannon could take the spot away from his previous co-star, DiCaprio. Also, I think your wish for A Seperation getting into Original Screenplay is gonna come true. I'm really hoping for Elizabeth Olson and
Kirsten Dunst to hear there names on Tuesday morning (my biggest "it ain't never gonna happen nomination but I wish it would": Best Score: Insidious).
Picture: I totally agree with the top five, although I am not all that convinced that Moneyball will make it. I think if there is a sixth nominee it will either be The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo or The Tree of Life (preferably the latter).
Director: I think you are right. I will honestly be a bit disappointed if Fincher makes it, since Dragon Tattoo is one of my least favorite efforts by him. Would much rather see Malick or Winding Refn make it (although I agree with you that Malick will squeak in, despite hardly any love from the precursors or guilds).
Actor: I think it will lineup with BAFTA, although your argument for DiCaprio is pretty sound. I think this year is different than the Morgan Freeman/Invictus nomination...this year seems much more contentious and honestly I think Invictus was more liked and less polarizing than J.Edgar...and honestly, Morgan Freeman is god in the eyes of the Academy.
Actress: This is where I'm taking a HUGE leap and predicting Kirsten Dunst to upset Glenn Close. Don't have any explanation or reasoning, I just have a feeling we will see a surprise here and although Rooney Mara is the safest and obvious choice for an upset, I'm just recently not feeling it for her. I think the buzz on Young Adult and Charlize is a dead, unfortunately, but I would love to be proved wrong. I understand that Glenn Close is respected and this project was a longtime dream of hers, but honestly, this is probably her weakest effort to date. And frankly, I think this dream scenario is different than someone like Salma Hayek/Frida, since that film was poised to strike in MANY different categories other than Best Actress (didn't it get 6 nominations?) and the film was generally much more well-received.
Best Supporting Actor: God, what a nightmare. I'd say the likelihood is 1. Plummer, 2. Branagh, 3. Hill, 4. Brooks, 5. Who knows? I'd say this is where we see a "coattail" nomination from a very popular film that does well with the Academy...so either Ben Kingsley for Hugo or Corey Stoll for Midnight in Paris. Right?
Best Supporting Actress: Bejo, Chastain (The Help), and Spencer are good to go, but from there? Not seeing it for Janet McTeer...I'm gonna make another wild guess and say Fassbender pulls in Carey Mulligan (like Bridges did for Gyllenhaal) and she's a surprise nominee. And I guess McTeer, McCarthy, and Woodley for the final spot? Wow, it's hard to predict, but I guess Woodley? These supporting categories are head-scratching, which makes it exciting.
Original Screenplay: I'm predicting A Separation as well, although I substituted Beginners for 50/50...hoping Young Adult can surprise here, but I am doubtful.
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants, Moneyball, and The Help seem likely...the last two I'm going with The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and Hugo, although Tinker Tailor and Drive could easily upset here as well. And I honestly wouldn't count out We Need to Talk About Kevin either.
Just watched Captain America and I loved the skinny Steve work, but that song is not worthy of a nomination. Shockingly pedestrian for Menken.
Would love some surprises on Tuesday...Drive, Mulilgan, Man or Muppet, definitely McTeer. The Skin I Live In for score.
Tinker, Tailor is one of my favorite films of the year, so Pic, Actor, Screenplay, Art Direction, and Costume would be nice. Wishful thinking, I'm sure.
I will discuss the only ones I'm interested on betting... I'll let the BP lineup surprise me (or not) come Tuesday.
Actor: I'm also feeling Shannon will get in. Strangely. And maybe it's just wishful thinking, but the lineup I'm betting is: Clooney, DuJardin, Fassbender, Pitt and Shannon.
Actress: As Aaron above, this morning I had a hunch that Kirsten Dunst will be the upset and unseat Close, so: Davis, Dunst, Streep, Swinton and Williams.
Supp. Actor: Tricky, tricky, but I'll say: Branagh, Brooks, Hill, Pitt and Plummer.
Supp. Actress: Chastain, McTeer, Mulligan, Regrave, Spencer.
We'll see!
I have been on the just-six nomination train for awhile, Nate. Although I do think your post about how it gets harder after five misses the mark a bit- I don't think ANY movie could even dream of 42% of the vote. Academy's members views vary wildly, and you know that some are putting A Separation, Melancholia, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Weekend, Bridesmaids, and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close at the top of their ballots. I think 20% is about the upper limit for consensus favorites at this stage in the game. Not saying that 5% isn't unacheivable (or particularly acheivable) for #6-#10...clearly some time in the last seven or eight years we got nine nominees according to the Academy...but we also got FIVE nominees one of these years.
I agree with the five + Moneyball theory. Support is too scattered after those six. War Horse? Maybe...but I doubt the support for that...
No one's talking about Ben Kingsley in "Hugo" in supporting actor. That's a mistake. I think he'll take out Nick Nolte. And Jonah Hill is sailing to an Oscar nod, like it or not.
I'm surprised you didn't even considering Williams taking the award, yet I'm SURE she'll win. Common, young, blonde, hot, humble and playing an icon who was snubbed in her lifetime? Michelle is winning this! Mark my words.
Sorry for the typos and/or bad grammar. My english is getting worse day by day.
Irvin -- i know it *sounds* weird, being a critical sin and all... but Hugo diminishes on each viewing and there's just so much dead space. I love what it's trying to do but it feels very stiff to me.
Woodley is in, if you look at past years. Whenever Clooney is nominated for Lead Actor, the supporting female gets a nom.
Here are my predictions in the top 10 categories. As you'll notice I have an inkling that Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy might be the surprise package of the nomination list:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7GZ_i_G868
Although I don't think it'll make the cut, I really wouldn't be at all surprised if Bridesmaids makes the Best Picture cut. Eventually Oscar voters are going to want to prove that they too can take a joke and what better way to prove it then by nominating a film that's proven itself to be just as funny (and as lucrative) as the Hangover and has maintained some serious buzz--in contrast to the ridiculous, meaningless buzz of the Hangover (absolutely not, Zach Galifanakis)--since it opened all the way back in... what? April? May?
Also, I'm a little uncertain as to whether or not Berenice Bejo will be invited to the Oscars or attending as a guest of her hubby. Although I personally think she's delightful and even exciting performance, I feel as if it's already being considered a possible "coat-tails" nomination and she has very few scenes without Jean Dujardin, who is so fully comitted to the role and the film and yet overshadows everything and everyone but Uggie. I think it's down to Bejo and Janet McTeer, with McTeer having the slighter edge over the fact that every single review of Albert Nobbs has made room to praise her work, and because the debate over her is whether she's a scene-stealer or a film-saver, I think she'll probably make it. And due to whatever Oscar voters have been smoking for the past few months, they love their Descendants and are probably gonna want to make up for ignoring Elizabeth Olsen, Felicity Jones, and probably Rooney Mara by nominating another "hot, young thing," who also happens to be in a film that they love--gag.
I'm sensing some serious surprise nods. I could see Giamatti or Horn or Shannon or Oldman for Actor, Paquin or Dunst for Actress, Pitt or Kingsley or a Tinker Tailor guy or Von Sydow or Mortensen or Stoll for Supporting Actor, Redgrave or Berlin for Supporting Actress.
I really feel like Margaret will show up somewhere.
I posted my own predictions hours before the announce...somo similarities, and also some differences with Nathaniel. Check and comment: http://www.mondoglam.com/2012/01/predicciones-al-oscar-2012-ultima.html
This graph paints a clear picture as to who will win the Oscars this year!
http://tinyurl.com/6mqtx9w
Great predictions!! I'm really excited to see what happens Sunday night.
I think Raju deserves to win for Best Short. It's actually available on iTunes now! http://itunes.apple.com/ca/movie/raju/id504628190
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