Best Actress Predix: Authors & Astronauts & Immigrants (oh my)
Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 11:30PM And princesses too! Actually I'm predicting neither Princess Grace (Nicole Kidman) nor Princess Diana (Naomi Watts) for the eventual shortlist though their names will undoubtedly continue to come up. Yes, the Best Actress Chart has arrived.
Who wins ANOTHER Oscar this year? So many previous winners are back
My final shortlist is all Oscar winners -- which has only ever happened once (just last year in Supporting Actor ) but this is what my crystal ball is telling me so I obey. And anyway, it's a Previous-Actress-Winning Heavy year at least in terms of who got jobs headlining major motion pictures. Even lower in the charts there are a lot of Oscar winners, all told. It's (maybe) that kind of year... though I could see a scenario where unOscared supporting chart players hop over to Lead Actress if they see a window and their roles are substantial enough (Adams? Harris? Winfrey?). And with 235 days left to go before Oscar nominations are announced, a lot could change: a quickly filmed or under-the-radar movie could hit it big on the fall festival circuit; holiday box office could shift focus around substantially at year's end; films could suddenly be moved to '2014 TBA' status.
Marion Cotillard will win Cannes Best Actress for... oh wait, people said this last year too and it didn't happenThe Wild Card
This time it's not a person but The Weinstein Co. themselves. They've got more actress hopefuls than even they can handle since they're representing Grace of Monaco, The Immigrant, Philomena, August: Osage County and The Butler. (Does this clear the way for Sandra Bullock to win a second Oscar? I'm only mostly kidding) There is about a 1% chance that TWC will stay supportive of all of those films since they regular abandon their runts rather than nurturing them, to concentrate on the pick of the litter. Some of the ladies in question can generate some degree of media and internal industry interest even without puppet masters behind the scenes but not all of them. What do you think TWC will do when it's time to play favorites?
Fun Trivia About The Top Ten on This Chart
- They have 47 acting nominations and 11 acting Oscars between them
- They range in age from 37 to 78 (will it really be a year skewing that mature?)
- 6 of them have competed directly with Meryl Streep for Oscar glory but only one, Sandra Bullock, has ever prevailed in head-to-head combat. (7 & 2 if you count Nicole winning the only Best Actress nomination from The Hours.)
- 3 Australians, 1 French, 3 Brits, 3 Americans
All First Wave Oscar Predictions
Index | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Screenplays | Visuals | Sound | Animation
Reader Comments (119)
Maybe I'm crazy, but I think the Oscars will pass on Meryl. The Globes won't, of course, and then everyone will be crying snub! But, I just have a feeling that after she got her third, they may give the slot to someone who needs it more.
Nathaniel, you should make a top-10 of current actresses whom everyone is excited about that don't bring the same level of YAY from you...
Like Cotillard, Blanchett, Chloe Grace Moretz...
If you have time, of course :)
Do you think Susan has been worthy of a nom since her win.
oh and to everyone... I'm really starting to suspect that Weinstein buys up as many things as he does specifically to get rid of the competition. Because it does seem like he's always focused on the Best Actress category.
if i were a filmmaker i'd really hesistate to sign with them because they buy so much, release them all at the same time and don't truly get behind all of them. I mean WTF with Coriolanus the other year...
-------
Thank You
I love this list. I'm hard pressed to name a top 10, much less a top 5.
This year, I'm more enthusiastic about the film with leading actresses. On this list, I like 75% - 80% of these actresses and WANT to see their films. On the leading actors side, I only like 30% of the actors mentioned and would be agreeable to seeing their films.
My guess as to what the Weinsteins will do this year:
- Promote Oprah Winfrey as best supporting actress where her odds of winning are excellent;
- Insist that BOTH Streep and Roberts are Leads. Why? Because Streep's chances of winning are small, because it gives the illusion of supporting both actresses so neither will be offended, so they cancel each other out and give the chance to focus on their other actresses who might actually win. I think they will keep Kidman and maybe Dench.
"Nathaniel, you should make a top-10 of current actresses whom everyone is excited about that don't bring the same level of YAY from you...
Like Cotillard, Blanchett, Chloe Grace Moretz..."
I get the feeling that Nathaniel likes Cotillard--she has won two of his medals as far as I remember (for Rust and Bone and Nine)...just maybe not obsessively like some do. Like the people who thought she was Oscar-worthy in Public Enemies (good performance, but was there really that much to her role?).
re: Winslet
The thing is while oscars do close the book on career winners - see Pacino as another example - it's rare for career winners to be so young. Those actresses (Sarandon as mentioned) were at the age where the roles were lesser, and frankly - Sarandon's work since Dead Man Walking hasn't been that Oscar worthy. Winslet took a huge break post-Reader (no films for three years), so this will be the first test of whether or not they closed the book on her. I'm still annoyed at her oscar, but she's been such a vibrant presence that it'd be disappointing if that was the end of her Oscar career.
re: Cotillard
I'm really fascinated by the reaction to her. I don't read enough to think she's so beloved by EVERYBODY ALWAYS EVER and my reaction is closer to Nathaniel's (nod worthy for Rust and Bone, largely average in everything else), but given how much I hated her Oscar victory, I consider that an improvement. I'm curious about her and James Gray is a classicist director that I think, if he were to break through, he'd break through in a big way (a la Clint Eastwood).
re: Blanchett
Hmmm..... On the one hand, Woody Allen tends to write more vivid supporting roles than leads and his films are ensembly enough that the ones that do breakthrough beyond screenplay will do so in supporting. Consequently, I don't think it's "freakishly rare" inasmuch that he doesn't have a lot of really LEAD characters. That stated, I think that's exactly what's working against Blanchett - is her role big enough to be more than a de facto lead (a la Hall/Johansson in Vicky Cristina Barcelona)? I like the Hawkins in support idea.
Monuments Men will be interesting if Blanchett has an even remotely sizeable role. When a cast is dominated by one sex, the distaff member sometimes can sneak through by virtue of being easier to single out (Minnie Driver in Good Will Hunting, Kim Basinger in LA Confidential, even someone like Jackie Weaver for Animal Kingdom benefited). Of course, if it's not big enough, you're just Vera Farmiga in The Departed.
----
Anyone else feel that Diana will go straight to HBO? Then again, My Week With Marilyn didn't and that totally felt like it should've
At this point I think only Streep and Dench are sure bets.
As I've said before,I think it's Naomi's time, now. She is overdue, respected, facing a lot of former winners in a biopic of a legendary person who had a tragic ending, and has that The Impossible momentum.
The narrative is there, and it is just perfect. Please, make a better case for any of her contenders. Naomi needs to suck to not get nominated.
Aaron,
I know Nathaniel likes Cotillard. And he likes Blanchett. And I said "that don't bring the same (!) level of excitement to you".
;)
I think Streep will be brillant in AOC and will be undeniable for gold (re: DDL
last year).
@Jorge. And he LOVES Chloe Grace Moretz. LOL!
Aaron,
The point was that there are people who are excited about her and Nathaniel is not as excited. Ok? ;)
i am willing to be excited by anyone but not willing to be excited just because everyone else ;)
Cal -- absolutely agreed that her narrative is there. but narrative sometimes doesn't matter if you have a tiny distributor and the film isn't good. so there are still variables we dont know about. also i agree with whoever the other day said in the comments that Naomi is one of those actresses like Julianne Moore and insert 5 other names that the industry respects a lot but never feels the need to fawn over in terms of WIN. So she'd have to get people really excited about her and when have people been really excited (like breathlessly excited about her) beyond Mullholland Dr?
My predictions:
BEST ACTRESS
1. THE Meryl Streep for "August: Osage County" (I'm one of those who dream with her fourth Oscar win and her character screams Oscar!)
2. Marion Cotillard for "The Immigrant" (after being snubed for "Nine" and "Rust & Bone" and after being part of the success of "Inception", "Midnight In Paris" and "The Dark Knight Rises", I guess it's time for the AMPAS to stop pretending she doesn't exist after winning for "La vie en rose")
3. Jessica Chastain for "The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Hers" or "His" (Chastain is some kind of new Meryl Streep and her last 2 years were full of glory, but this year will be a test which will show us if her 2 Oscar nods were fruit of a crush or of true love by the Academy memebers; little is known about the movie(s) but if it is a juicy part, I see things happening for an actress as talented as Chastain)
4. Judi Dench for "Philomena" (it's DAME Judi Dench and it has been a while since "Notes On a Scandal"; She managed to get Oscar buzz for her performance in "Skyfall", so I guess an Oscar nom is really possible to happen considering the caliber of her role in "Philomena")
5. Greta Gerwig for "Frances Ha" (She deserves a nom, but it all depends on the movie's success outside the indie awards circuit; it's a career-making performance and the movie just reminded me the Woody Allen classic "Manhattan"...)
6. Cate Blanchett for "Blue Jasmine"
7. Kate Winslet for "Labor Day"
8. Naomi Watts for "Diana"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Julia Roberts/America's Eternal Sweetheart and Bankable Actress for "August: Osage County" (maybe her return to Oscar recognition - her part has everything for a great fashion Oscar comeback; category fraud is very likely to happen, specially considering the role has everything in order to give her a win in the Best Supporting Actress category since the AMPAS loves giving this category's award to a co-lead performance)
2. Amy Adams for "American Hustle" (no matter how average she's in movies like "Doubt" or "The Master", if the movie succeeds and if she gets a couple of award nominations, she's nominated in the Best Supporting Actress category)
3. Cate Blanchett for "Monuments Men" (Rose Valland actually existed and she was a GREAT woman of her time and Blanchett is the perfect fit for the portray of a strong woman; plus, as the only major female member of the movie's cast, she will be fresh air on scene - audiences always love a talented beautiful actress)
4. Octavia Spencer for "Fruitvale Station" (they loved her for "The Help" and "Fruitvale Station" is under huge Sundance heat and her performance received really good reviews; Spencer has a dramatic turn in this one and I believe the AMPAS members will have this non-sassy and comedic side of her in consideration, so, if the movie manages to get a Best Picture nod, Spencer is likely to receive her second Oscar nomination)
5. Scarlett Johansson for "Don Jon" (she's overdue for her first Oscar nomination and critics praised her performance in JGL's directorial debut a lot; according to the movie trailer, she promises to be hilarious and the Oscar voters sometimes go for a comedic/hilarious performance in this category and since Scarlett is such a beautiful being and a non-Academy Award nominee, I guess she may actually have a shot this year)
6. Cameron Diaz for "The Counselor"
7. Sally Hawkins for "Blue Jasmine"
8. Kristin Scott Thomas for "Only God Forgives"
I thought Cotillard was a little overrated in Inception (but it is hard to get three-dimensional with how a character is constructed- then again, I felt most for Cillian Murphy). And whatever went wrong for me in Inception got worse in The Dark Knight Rises because I LURVE Talia and felt a little undersold in her presentation that also seemed beyond her control.
I could not finish Rust & Bone so I cannot vouch for it.
I thought her best performances were La Vie en Rose and Public Enemies (yeah, I know this is plenty controversial since I know so few who like the movie). So needless to say, I welcome her back in a period piece and this time with somebody who is a true classicist.
the fourth win for Streep will occur a lot quicker than the third
the dodgy overdue narrative will have been removed and the focus will simply be on the quality of the performance.
if she brings it for AOC she will get it.
I just have this gut feeling that Watts will find herself in the same position as Streep was in with The Iron Lady -- a not-to-good film but with a highly acclaimed lead performance. And Watts has built a strong repertoire these last few years in such films as The Painted Veil, King Kong, Mother and Child, etc. which can only add to her chances of a nomination/win -- and I'm sure Streep's win was in part due to recognition of her body of work after Sophie's Choice. Not to mention what a great actress Watts can be..
All the people who predict Naomi Watts...
Diana was shown TWICE at Cannes and for almost a week didn't get a distributor. And finally the only distributor which got the rights was Entertainment One. Yes, No Weinstein, no Focus, no Fox Searchlight, no Lionsgate, no even Oscilloscope or Magnolia... Entertainment One - the same who last year make the "proper" work with A Late Quartet and Cosmopolis. Almost the ame level like Millenium Entertainment.
Philomena only need 8 minutes to have a distribuitor, "Diana" needs two complete sessions and no respectable -At least by Oscar race- studio could buy it? And lastly, Watts was called for making a re-shoots just one week before Cannes. If this is the best can do this film, it would be better a TV release in HBO
Many of you said the narrative and the story, but let me say this, if the story was excellent, Why any other studio could buy "Diana"?
Link: http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/cannes-entertainment-one-announces-itself-as-player-in-u-s-distribution-by-acquiring-naomi-watts-starrer-diana/
sorry for typing... Why any other studio couldn't buy "Diana"?
I find the way people are trying to craft this narrative for Watts more convincing than the actual narrative itself. To whit
Body of Work: Mixed. I think immediately after Mullholland Drive she had some heat - The Ring gave a her a good payday and strong box office and she quickly followed that with 21 Grams which garnered her a nomination. And like her nomination for <I>The Impossible, it wasn't a sure thing at all. But she's rarely the most memorable thing about most of her films. I mean, she was great in I Heart Huckabees, but so was everyone else. She was a non-entity in Eastern Promises. And most of her other films no one really saw/cared for/paid attention to (King Konf stands out, but not for her thespian skills). I just don't see it as giving her much cumulative points for a career oscar. Certainly not comparable to Meryl's 30 years and a dozen nominations since Sophie's Choice would have.
Respect: Muted. I don't think Hollywood dislikes her or anything, but I don't think they have any collective ardour either. I do give her credit for getting in during a very weird year with a film few saw and even less liked. But I don't feel like that's due to her own personal popularity as much as it was just an odd scramble.
Film: Very much wait-and-see. At best, I think we'll see it be like My Week With Marilyn and it could set her up for an oscar possibility down the line. leon's comments about it's distribution status don't have a salutatory effect, though
First, appology if the message sounds too harsh
Agreed with you, Arkaan. I like Watts, but your points are spot on. Even checking Wikipedia for the Australian cinema you can see her below of the films alongside Abbie Cornish - lol. While Kidman and Blanchett, alongside Ledger and Jackman took the relevant places.
Watts hasn't exactly the narrative in favor. I know her support this year, but think about it. It wasn't enough for the HFPA even when she was kissing voters butts even a week before the ceremony while Chastain was in Broadway. And it wasn't enough to SAG voters. And don't forget, she took 9 years of Oscar bait failed projects and mixed roles to return to the Oscars.
Last, when you heard the news from Cannes and took the distribuitor Do you really have confidence for "Diana" after these terrible news?
I like Watts but my interest stops short of wanting her to have an Oscar. She's not overdue or underrated--she's fortunate the actor's branch see her as a trooper worthy of some afterglow (Mulholland) recognition (2 Actress nods).
She's like all those other actressses solid but no star,someone they feel ok passing on.
Arkaan - lol too bad My Week with Marilyn wasn't even HBO-worthy :p
Nathaniel - That was me that said that the other day! Like, even with everyone saying it right now, I'm not feeling Naomi's chances. I mean, I guess we'll see. She did somehow get nominated in a competitive Best Actress field last year (like, I thought if someone got kicked out, it would've been her over Marion)
BEST ACTRESS
Meryl - Duh. I actually think with so many previous winners competing this year, her chances at a fourth are actually really good.
Judi Dench - Been a while since she's been nominated, but she's got six nominations. Like, who would've thought a woman her age would be nominated for the first time that old and then get five more nominations??? Sounds like a good role and she just had a great year with Skyfall and Exotic Marigold.
Sandra Bullock - I'm really rooting for her, but if the picture is great and so is her performance in a one woman show, I think they would embrace her "see, the Oscar wasn't such a bad idea" nomination for someone they clearly love as a person.
Others: Julia Roberts honestly has a chance at this point going lead; I wasn't feeling Kate Winslet because for some reason the title and the picture I had seen of her on the set made me think it was some cheap comedy lol but then I read the description after watching Revolutionary Road and being all like KATE OMG and it sounds like she has a good chance; Honestly really not sure about Kate or Naomi.
ALSO PLZ DON'T GIVE ME ANY HOPE AT ALL THAT KIRSTEN DUNST WILL GET NOMINATED, I THOUGHT SHE HAD NO CHANCE WITH THIS FILM AND SHE PROBABLY DOESN'T BUT NOW YOU ALL HAVE GOTTEN MY HOPES UP AND I KNOW I WILL WISH FOR IT TO HAPPEN FOR THE NEXT MONTHS ON END. THERE WAS REAL REASON TO HOPE WITH MELANCHOLIA AND THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN SO NOW IT WILL STING EVEN MORE ... sorry Kiki's my fav lol
* I also meant to add that as of now I see Best Actress as a Meryl vs. Damn Judi showdown. Meryl competing against so many previous winners will help her chances at a 4th since she got the perfect role to do it with (assuming she isn't as hammy as the trailer suggested) and Judi has a great argument for winning a second Oscar since it's Dame Judi Dench - well respected, especially for an older actress, super talented, lots of nominations, and it would be her first lead win anyway. Plus if her main competition is like Meryl who JUST won or Sandra who should be lucky she even has one, or Kate who just won, etc ... you get what I'm saying. Her chances seem good.
@ Nathaniel R
Aaron has already answered that question perfectly :)
"I know Woody Allen is hit-or-miss nowadays, but when he is ON the Academy goes cray cray over his films, and especially with his actors. Cate is very popular with the Academy, hugely respected, a bonafide movie star, and if she delivers in Blue Jasmine and the film isn't a disastrous failure, she's in. "
Thanks Aaron
- and I bet my ALL that Woody wrote the role for her after seeing her in Liv Ullmann's Streetcar Named Desire.
- the thing is, it's very simple: a good, not great, Woody Allen film is always recognized by the Academy in one way or another (nominations wise) => in this particular case the film really centers on this woman, she's an evident lead:
"After everything in her life falls to pieces, including her marriage to wealthy businessman Hal (Alec Baldwin), elegant New York socialite Jasmine (Cate Blanchett), moves into her sister Ginger's (Sally Hawkins) modest apartment in San Francisco to try to pull herself back together again."
+ Cate is a huge name (5 nominations, 1 win), it's not a fresh win since it happened 9 years ago;
+ it has been a while (last time she was nominated was 2007)
As far as the other ladies come to mind:
I cannot see how Harvey will manage to have all of his leading ladies nominated:
Meryl + Dench + Julia + Nicole + Marion = 5 Harvey women, 5 nominees is what Oscar allows.
Not! Not happening! no matter how powerful he is.
*Streep is getting nominated in lead for sure, I just know that
*Julia will go in support
*Marion has been unlucky with the academy and the early word for "The Immigrant" is "mediocre" or "horrendous"
*Nicole Kidman will get in, I think
*Dench's film has been easily picked-up but so was "Quartet" last year! That movie (considering it revolves around old people NOT IN INDIA) is a box office wonder with its Worldwide: $54,958,655, yet no Harvey support for Maggie.
And let's face it, Oscar has loved Maggie more than it has Dench.
The Harvey women aside:
it's Blanchett, Watts, Bullock, Thompson.
Who will get in? I have no idea, but that's the beauty of it, isn't it?
If I had to do the predictions now, I'd go like this:
- Meryl Streep
- Nicole Kidman
- Cate Blanchett
- Naomi Watts
- out of Winslet, Thompson, Bullock? God... I don't know! I say Bullock LOL
Bia, you are crazy.
Yavor, actually not the same situation between Maggie Smith and Judi Dench. "Quartet" was part of Harvey since the production in 2012. Also, the theme was too light to considerate.
In the case of Dench we can talk about a film with only 8 MINUTES to show at Cannes and was competitive between other studios. Just read the point with "Diana".
Finally, while Maggie Smith was loved by AMPAS you don't need to forget than Judi Dench took five of her six nominations with Harvey. And her AMPAS love is too recent.
With these point, actually Judi Dench is more likely with than Watts in this instance
And last:
In the last few years, she's having a career resurgeance. Heck, even she's most likely seventh last year with her performance in Skyfall.
If Philomena is a success, I can guarantee Dench will count with the british vote -They choose her in "My Week with Marylin"-. And remember, the british aren't exactly too faihfull with their tresaures -Just ask Vanessa Redgrave, Keira Knightley, Gary Oldman and others.
the British vote is not exactly a powerhouse card with Oscar, leon, and please, I'm not saying she won't get nominated, but I think she really will have a hard time, considering that in lead: Streep and Kidman will have, actually have Oscar-bite roles, not that Dench's role is not, but not as much.
Harvey also bought the rights after seeing a 2-minute/ 5-minute clip of Meryl from the Iron Lady, yes Meryl was not only nominated but won, yet the film was mediocre, and Judi Dench is not Meryl Streep, she will have a hard time to earn her nomination, in my humble opinion.
We will never know, but my gut tells me last year Maggie was closer to a Supporting Oscar nomination with Marigold than Dench was with Skyfall.
Yavor, what do you mean Judi Dench is not Meryl Streep? Perhaps she doesn't have the rabid fan base, but Dench's film, stage, and TV work is exemplary, with far greater range. Meryl is brilliant but her choices lately are usually safe ones. Perhaps the next decade of work will be more akin to Dench's (e.g., parts in films like Notes on a Scandal). I'm looking forward to BOTH new films as they BOTH star amazing actresses.
@ Pam, I was not referring to the quality of the women's work but their Oscar popularity, etc.
Streep is evidently in a league of her own there.
If Dench were Streep she would have snatched an Oscar nom for Skyfall or Marigold, but she did not; neither in 2011 for either: My Week With Marilyn; J. Edgar or Jane Eyre.
She's a huge name so noms in supporting are an even easier catch for people like her but still nothing.
I hope that's clear enough.
Ok, you don't wanna predict Watts, but one point remains: any non previous winner that surges leading an Oscar-friendly pic will be the instant frontrunner or will surprise in the end. Remember Brody.
I won't deny that a narrative can be made if the pieces fall into place. But people arguing that the pieces are in place already? Disagree.
John Williams has 48 noms for score, so why should the Academy be tired of Meryl?
And I love how everyone writes her off because of the yet very first trailer for A:OC. Lovely.
Most did that for The Iron Lady and guess what happened....
(about her work for Bridges of Madison County-Where were the awards? She won NOTHING for that! Zilch! Zero! Nada!)
But whatever. I'm not sure if Weinstein could really get 4 of his actresses in.
But one of the princesses will get in. The Academy LOVES biopics, so I can't see both missing.
sonja -- true, the biopic factor may allow them to leap whatever hurdles the films might present in terms of quality or lack of interest in other ways
yavor -- i still cant believe how well Quartet did. It's so bad!
What we have learnt from Leon's post are
1. Distributor means everything, we are doing best distributor instead of best actress, lol
2. Quotes Wiki as a valid source because even a kid can edit. Citation from Wiki is never allowed in thesis and you should now know why.
3. More famous mean better performance - lol . Using so- called star power to weigh performance, is ridiculous.
4. We should never consider whether or not the project is sensitive.
5. Gave out one of the decade best performance is not considered overdue because it is not a hit-movie. BO indicate film quality?
more question in Leon's post
What exactly are 9-year failed baity projects?
1. A CGI fantasy film genre similar to LOTK is Oscar-baity in acting branch?
2. Remakes are Oscar-baity?
3. Is that every film failed to get in Oscar automatically named as " failed baity project"?
What do you know about Oscar-bait, actually
Oscar bait roles: The Painted Veil (Yes, remake but it was considerate by many Oscar pundits as a favorite by the Oscars that year.) and Fair Games (Political thriller with gimmick); even King Kong came with tiny Oscar buzz. And don't forget Eastern Promises as the revenge since AHV snub in 2005. I didn't considerate Mother and Child, because it was another case
Distributor means everything, we are doing best distributor instead of best actress,
Around the distributor, maybe you didn't like it, but unfortunally is true. I didn't say it just came alone, but it's relevant to Oscar prospects. Why? Because an Oscar campaign cost money and hard-work by the team. If you think the Oscars only matters the performance, you live in a wrong world. A better distribuitor means: a. Money; b. Media effect and c. Campaign. We saw that each year. So, yes, the distribuitor MATTERS especially at Oscar race. Yes, you need the reviews and narrative, but almost 100% sure you need a propel studio behind you.
The quotta of Wikipedia is just an example, not a factible proof.
More famous mean better performance - lol . Using so- called star power to weigh performance, is ridiculous.
I never said that nobody, you misundestood my point. I only said, after the obstacle of the distribuitor, Watts needs star power to balance her chances. Unfortunally for Watts, she's more a respected thespian. Look the example of Kidman - Even when "The Paperboy" failed to received the Oscar nomination and has Millenium as a distribuitor, she paid off for her personal campaign, she has the star power and put effort for the nod-.
We should never consider whether or not the project is sensitive
Again, I only considerate the news from Cannes. When you have projects like Philomena, Carol, Jane Got a Gun and other pick up fast by companies but not "Diana" and took more time to take a bad distribuitor, What do you expect about that?
Gave out one of the decade best performance is not considered overdue because it is not a hit-movie. BO indicate film quality?
You need to check the last winners box offices for their films. But even without that, how do you proof Watts is "due"? I repeat, Wikipedia example was only as a photograph.
Leon.
What is AHV?
Ok, you don't wanna predict Watts, but one point remains: any non previous winner that surges leading an Oscar-friendly pic will be the instant frontrunner or will surprise in the end. Remember Brody.
Just ask Judy Davis in 1984.
AHV: A history of violence
Boy -- we at least created our own heat around Naomi -- and I like to think we're erudite and cutting edge ;-).
Come Oscar time the narrative will be Streep vs Dench.
Not feeling Grace of Monaco. The second that people realize it's Nicole Kidman in a bad movie playing herself with plastic surgery and that she is nothing like Grace Kelly then its chances will fade. The Iron Lady had issues, but Streep's performance as Thatcher at different ages was really spot on, complex and inspiring. I have an odd feeling that Julia Roberts will be acknowledged for doing a surprise great job in August: Osage County. Judi Dench and Sandra Bullock are seeming like strong candidates. There will be one wild card that we don't know about yet. Overall, you did a great job, Nathaniel.
Most of the actresses in this race are very talented indeed. And they are respected, loved and get the most juicy roles in the industry. So if most of them are favored by the critics, their films are doing great, who will then be nominated: Factor 1) the biggest campaign 2) who really wants to campaign and is hungry for an Oscar 3) due or overdue 4) the role people feel most connected to
Meryl Streep: 3rd Oscar in 2012. She is pleased. The role is baity, but is the Academy tired of her? A nominee, but not the winner
Judi Dench: 1 Oscar in 1999. Dench is slowly getting blind. She was in the B.O champion and critical acclaimed Bond movie last year. A strong candidate for the win
Sandra Bullock: 1 Oscar in 2010. She is pleased for sure. I think with all the other actresses in the running, Bullock is gonna take her seat, far back in the corner and just enjoy herself. Hopefully Gravity is gonna rock. The nomination will be a huge reward itself
Marion Cotillard: 1 Oscar in 2008. She is pleased and feels due for another nom. Since her win, Midnight in Paris. Nine, The Dark Knight Rises and Rust & bone have shown how good she really is. A nominee but not the winner
Emma Thompson: 2 Oscars in 1993 Acting and 1996 Writing. She is hungry Talented. Funny. Always gives funny speeches. Her filmography of late is ....diverse. A dark horse for a nomination
Julia Roberst: 1 Oscar in 2001. She is pleased. Wants to show that she is more than just a smile and a laugh with great hair. In the AOS trailer, Julia acts like Julia. Weinstein is her friend. Weinstein is a powerful friend. A nomination is possible
Cate Blanchett: 1 Supporting Oscar in 2005. She is pleased and is certainly not hungry for another Oscar. A strong comeback to the big screen. Done amazing theatre work. Woody Allen is a risk. Directors really want to work with her. A possible nomination. Could go either way
Kate Winslet: 1 Oscar in 2009. She is pleased and is still hungry. Adored by the Academy. Reitman characters are always a gold mine for actors. Gives horrible speeches
Nicole Kidman: 1 Oscar in 2003. She is pleased but still hungry. Finally got her 3rd nomination with Rabbit Hole. Quit botox. Good for her! I think 2014 will be a stronger year for her. Grace sounds like a boring movie. But the Academy loves the Royals
Naomi Watts: 2 noms. She is hungry for sure. The Diana pic sounds TV material like. Watts cannot compete with Blanchett, Cotillard, Dench, Streep or Kidman for the finale fifth spot. She wiill be passed on
Greta Gerwig: O noms. Indie fav but does she even care about the Oscars at all? The movie looks boring, she looks great in it!
Bubbles: Rooney Mara in Aint Them Bodys Saint, Julie Delphy Before Midnight, Tilda Swinton Only Lovers Left Alive, Jessica Chastain The Disapperance of ...Berenice Bejo The Past
@leon
"Oscar bait roles: The Painted Veil (Yes, remake but it was considerate by many Oscar pundits as a favorite by the Oscars that year.) and Fair Games (Political thriller with gimmick); even King Kong came with tiny Oscar buzz. And don't forget Eastern Promises as the revenge since AHV snub in 2005. I didn't considerate Mother and Child, because it was another case"
Oh, you seem exaggerated something. And she didn't take baity role Except Diana.
1. A role/performance got buzzes doesn't mean it is baity.. Films with holocaus materials / biopics of the great = True bait.
1. Are you serious considered her role baity in the David Cronenberg's flick? You know most of Cronenberg's works are centered around Man, right?
2. Any example of nominated in a fantasy-fi except Ian McKellen?
3. Actually you only named The painted veil as a baity example but didn't explain.
This is what make the award shameful - butt-kissing win all.
Based on your quote of example, I'm sure you love to praise your favorite to high heaven even though her film is underdeveloped.
"how do you proof Watts is "due"
Then how do you prove your favorite deserved a GG nom in "The Paperboy" but not for "Dogvillie". Did she show any tremendous emotional range Watts shown in Mulholland Dr.?
She is brilliant in pretty much every drama people may not even seen it - Ellie Parker, Funny Games, The Assassination of Richard Nixon. If you really like her she should know what film she is brilliant in and probably won't say something like "9-year failed baity projects", a pretty empty phrase for everyone failed to get a Oscar nom.
It is funny that i saw someone who is always spread his hatred to her on Kidman's board, Award Daily, GoldDerby and pretended to "like Watts"
I think Berenice Bejo and should be included.
So, now I'm Naomi hater? Well, whatever nobody. I like Naomi (She's my second favorite in 2001 after Isabelle Huppert), but sorry, these news and situation are not making favors.
Based on your quote of example, I'm sure you love to praise your favorite to high heaven even though her film is underdeveloped.
If I make this, trust me, I will put Isabelle Huppert as no. 1 in my predix for Eleonor Rigby without a doubt.
Then how do you prove your favorite deserved a GG nom in "The Paperboy" but not for "Dogvillie".
For the Paperboy, just check the raves for her performance -Guardian, Standard, New York Times, Guy Lodge-. They LOVE her in the Paperboy.
Also for "Dogville", unfortunally she wasn't in contention because her studio didn't send the screeners.