Best Actress Predix: Authors & Astronauts & Immigrants (oh my)
Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 11:30PM And princesses too! Actually I'm predicting neither Princess Grace (Nicole Kidman) nor Princess Diana (Naomi Watts) for the eventual shortlist though their names will undoubtedly continue to come up. Yes, the Best Actress Chart has arrived.
Who wins ANOTHER Oscar this year? So many previous winners are back
My final shortlist is all Oscar winners -- which has only ever happened once (just last year in Supporting Actor ) but this is what my crystal ball is telling me so I obey. And anyway, it's a Previous-Actress-Winning Heavy year at least in terms of who got jobs headlining major motion pictures. Even lower in the charts there are a lot of Oscar winners, all told. It's (maybe) that kind of year... though I could see a scenario where unOscared supporting chart players hop over to Lead Actress if they see a window and their roles are substantial enough (Adams? Harris? Winfrey?). And with 235 days left to go before Oscar nominations are announced, a lot could change: a quickly filmed or under-the-radar movie could hit it big on the fall festival circuit; holiday box office could shift focus around substantially at year's end; films could suddenly be moved to '2014 TBA' status.
Marion Cotillard will win Cannes Best Actress for... oh wait, people said this last year too and it didn't happenThe Wild Card
This time it's not a person but The Weinstein Co. themselves. They've got more actress hopefuls than even they can handle since they're representing Grace of Monaco, The Immigrant, Philomena, August: Osage County and The Butler. (Does this clear the way for Sandra Bullock to win a second Oscar? I'm only mostly kidding) There is about a 1% chance that TWC will stay supportive of all of those films since they regular abandon their runts rather than nurturing them, to concentrate on the pick of the litter. Some of the ladies in question can generate some degree of media and internal industry interest even without puppet masters behind the scenes but not all of them. What do you think TWC will do when it's time to play favorites?
Fun Trivia About The Top Ten on This Chart
- They have 47 acting nominations and 11 acting Oscars between them
- They range in age from 37 to 78 (will it really be a year skewing that mature?)
- 6 of them have competed directly with Meryl Streep for Oscar glory but only one, Sandra Bullock, has ever prevailed in head-to-head combat. (7 & 2 if you count Nicole winning the only Best Actress nomination from The Hours.)
- 3 Australians, 1 French, 3 Brits, 3 Americans
All First Wave Oscar Predictions
Index | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Screenplays | Visuals | Sound | Animation
Reader Comments (119)
I'm already betting on another marion 'snub'. really, every year people think she should be nominated. if the internet had a say, she would be going for nomination #6 next year.
Nat,
Just curious as to why you're so high on SAVING MR. BANKS in a lot of your charts. Obviously Hancock isn't a terrific director, but have you been hearing early word of mouth on it?
Also, I think Delpy won't have a problem getting in, other than the unsympathetic part. Critics groups are sure to help, I would think. She's aces in it.
No prediction for Kristin Scott Thomas? Her character looks interesting.
I know I may regret this because I usually like Cuarón, but every time I see Bullock as an astronaut I think of Solaris and how dull it was...
The Weinsteins will concentrate on August with Philomena as a close second. Dench gives them good luck. I think Grace of Monaco and The Butler will be trashed by critics and for the same reasons.
Jordan -- the screenplay has a lot of buzz (it made the black list previously) and I actually think John Lee Hancock has it in him to direct an Oscar film (I think the Rookie was just a little more oomph or The Blind Side with just a little more sophistication would play very much like mainstream Oscar friendly pictures)
I'd love to think this were true of Delpy. I love her in those movies so much.
MK -- which film are you referring to. She's in the bottom of the supporting chart though reviews of that movie have not been kind
Marcelo -- right?!
I get the annoyance of predicting Cotillard every year, but in my opinion, she thoroughly deserved nomination #2 for NINE and nom #3 for RUST AND BONE.
About your predictions, I get your reasoning about Streep and Dench and I agree, if the movie delivers they'll probably get in (even if the movie doesn't, if their performances are good, it's done).
Bullock will need either a performance for the ages or a critical fav/BO success story surrounding the movie.
I'd love for Emma Thompson to return to the spotlight (one of the finest actresses ever) but I don't know if this is it. Let's hope the movie is good.
And I know you're not bullish on Winslet's hopes but I feel she'll be IN and possibly a threat to steal the Oscar from Meryl. Reitman has yet to make a bad movie, the movie he wrote were awesome (and all had showy parts for actors).
And how cool it'd be if someone like Berenice Bejo could get a second Oscar nom for a foreign performance, especially in a Ashgar Farhadi? (it's not happening but still one can dream)
Thank god we have a more interesting grop than last year,i did struggle for 5 viable nominees who and the 5 i chose bar cotillard had wobbly/awkward/ott parts in their performances esp Watts and Chastain,i think you are underestimating Nicole and Naomi,would love to see Winslet welcomed back and Dench has never won in Lead,Meryl is becoming more and more hammy where is the beautiful subtlty she bought to The bridges of madison county.
I'm glad to see Emma Thompson back in the mix & Judi too especially with her vision problems who knows how much longer she'll choose to work.
The Butler, Grace and Diana all have a very similar vibe so might cancel each other out.
I agree with Peggy Sue, the first thing I thought of when I saw the preview for Gravity was the deadly dull Solaris and said preview did nothing to change my mind.
I'm a Meryl Streep fan but I don't think there's any way they'd give her a 4th award so soon, maybe ever, so it seems like a wasted nomination if it happens that could honor other deserving work.
I'm really interested in Jonathan Glazer's adaptation of "Under the Skin"... during an interview ScarJo said the movie barely has dialogue which is interesting, specially considering Johansson's most Oscary performances were almost mute ("Lost In Translation" and "Girl With a Pearl Earring"). But just like you mention, "Under the Skin" may not be AMPAS' cup of tea.
I would love to see Greta Gerwig nominated for "Frances Ha". Haven't seen the movie yet, but judging by the trailer and her previous works, she just deserves an Oscar nod.
After this year fiasco (JLaw), I'm expecting something big next year, it looks like a great race, I only hope it will pay off.
Judi Dench has 6 nominations - not 5. That's really important to me, Nathaniel. How could you get it wrong? ;)
And good job, again!
Lets say for arguments sake that is the 5 nominees, I can totally see a scenario where they hand Streep a 4th or Dench a first lead win.
The only film I absolutely loved Cotillard in was "Nine" -- still having not seen "Rust and Bone" -- so the thought that she should be staring at nod number 6 is preposterous to me.
The more I ponder these races the more I hope Julia Roberts surprises everyone and completely knocks her role in "August: Osage County" out of the park in grand movie-star fashion -- then campaigns for lead. It would makes things just that much more interesting.
I'm really hoping for a nod for Nicole. Stoker, Railway Man and Grace...she's got a better chance this year, right? And I'd love for her and Naomi to be nominated together.
Also would love to see Delpy getting nominated. She was robbed back in 2004.
Sandra's role should be amazing, and I trust she will deliver...even if her Oscar nod and win for The Blind Side still seems like a joke to me.
I'm not feeling Meryl this year. The trailer left me cold. I have a feeling she won't be nominated.
Finally, here's hoping for Dunst. An actress who started as very likeable and perky, turned into annoying and now is still annoying but extremely talented. She was fantastic in Melancholia, All Good Things and Bachelorette.
You better believe I'm not gonna shut up about Greta Gerwig come Fall - hopefully they'll release the DVD at the right time, give people time to marinate in her really great work therein. It is awfully light for Oscar I suppose, but just perfectly judged and the movie (i.e. Baumbach) is so completely crushing on her you can't help but come out of it in love.
I feel like people who have seen August Osage County are overestimating Meryl's chances at winning anything - I'm with joel6, I don't think she's winning #4 for this, or for anything any time soon.
I am a little baffled by people watching the Gravity trailer and being reminded of being bored by Solaris (besides the immediate "Clooney in space!" thing) - I've watched that trailer a couple dozen times now and I get goosebumps every single time.
Andrea Riseborough is AMAZING in Shadow Dancer. Just sayin'
Troy -- i think it's preposterous too but you have to admit it's a little weird given that people a) ALWAYS LOVE HER -- you and I are relatively immune but on the whole people are obsessed and b) she comes close or stars in films that people are interested in.
This is such a crowded year. And it looks a lot more interesting than last year... Also: mainly former winners... Wow!
I am rooting for Julia and Julie. I thought Gerwig was amazing biput it's not really Oscary, not this year anyway.
Cotillard's fiml might be too uninvolving for some, but the reviews are there, so who knows. There is always a spot for the critical darling (here is hoping it will be Julie but I guess her Celine doesnt feel like proper acting to some)
Meryl, Judi, Sandra and Nicole are very strong early favourites IMO. Kind of difficult to see one of them missing out (and thats based on early word, not just guesswork).. So it kind of looks like four spots are already taken.
julia should go Lead and do her own little campaign like she did for Bardem. If she doesnt, never mind, as long as she is good. She doesnt really seem to care about Oscar, does she? I dont know if going supporting would be such a wise move career-wise. She was Queen of Hollywood for a decade, and, the Queen doesnt go supporting, not even for Meryl ( even if Meryl appears to be the bigger star these days, how ironic). She should just stick to leading status even at the chance of failing at an Oscar nom. I mean it looks like she is happy with supporting roles (larry crowne, fireflies, charlie wilson, Oceans) but now is a critical time in her career, and if she agrees to secondary status she might as well stay housewife and mother as she seems to anyway
My comments:
-I agree with Jordan. Delpy could be this year's critics darlings and make easy the Oscar nom. Right now, Before Midnight is close to be one of the top ten of the most acclaimed films this decade (98 in Metacritic) and also, in Before Sunset she won on San Francisco and was runner-up in New York, Los Angeles and National Society of Critics. And finally without a proper It girl yet, she could be our only newbie -If we didn't considerate her screenplay nom-
-I think Streep and Dench are the only secure spot by Harvey. One because she's Meryl (Duh, a women with 17 nominations in 35 years of career and some with surprising nominations) and the other being the potential favorite for winning. Tomorrow will be a crucial day for the other two, If Cotillard -Or the film- win something at Cannes, that would chance Harvey priorities after all and put Kidman in preasure. Also, don't need to forget, while Kidman is an Oscar winner she's not an Oscar darling and wasn't nominated for films with average films. Again, Grace of Monaco could be another W.E. or Nine. But yes, "The Immigrant" really needs to win something to make that.
-Forget Diana, with Entertainment One as the distribuitor -The same behind Cosmopolis and The Last Quartet, they won't make a proper campaign.
-Maybe another girl? Felicity Jones - The Invisible Woman? Mia Wasikowska - Tracks? Kristen Dunst - The Two Faces of January?
My predix:
1. Meryl Streep - August: Osage County: Duh, Meryl
2. Judi Dench - Philomena: Be careful Meryl. Dame Dench will come to win
3. Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks: This year's 90s. Oscar nominee who return to Oscars? Remember: Robert Downey Jr., Woody Harrelson, Helena Bonham Carter, Janet McTeer and Helen Hunt
4. Julie Delpy - Before Midnight: The potential critics darling.
5. Marion Cotillard - The Immigrant: After her snub. I would love if she wins at Cannes tomorrow
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6. Nicole Kidman - Grace of Monaco: Waiting for the spot
7. Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine: The reminescence of "A Streetcar Named Desire" sounds great
8. Kirsten Dunst - The Two Faces of January; If Focus or Lionsgate will distribute this film, maybe Dunst could irrump this category
10.Kate Winslet - Labor Day: Maybe a perennial nominee or just lay down?
And about the two french actresses - Well since 2011, French is the new British for the AMPAS voters ;)
I wonder if Hilary Swank would show up last mins with "The Homesman" just like what she did 9 years ago with "‘Million Dollar Baby"... Coincidentally in both films the lead actor is also the director... And what about double nom for Meryl since she is in it too... More importantly, Swank's BFF La Benning also has "The Face of Love" this year...
I think Nicole's getting in. She was SO CLOSE last year, and I think they'll appreciate a great actress playing a legend. Even if the movie proves a bit dull.
I am admittedly, a big Kidman whore.
Sarandon and Maclaine were both 49 on their 5th nomination--only for best actress--where they beat a deserving Streep--a rarity. The Academy simply closed the book on these women regardless of their best seen efforts subsequently.
I actually think Naomi Watts has a shot at this. She is one of a handful of actresses -- Michelle Pfeiffer comes to mind -- who enhances otherwise pedestrian films. Plus she is only one of a few film actresses in their 40s who is popular with the acting branch -- Roberts and Bullock being among them. And she does serious work to boot and is developing quite the fimography.
Can you humor me and include Zhang ZiYi (Grandmaster) in the charts? She was amazing in it. Of course, the film is also being distributed by the Weinsteins...
I'm getting so anxious about Blue Jasmine. There's some early word from Roger Friedman(which means nothing really) and the movie is sad to be darker than Woody's usual but what is SPC is doing? The poster is terrible and they missed a golden opportunity to debut the trailer in front of Before Midnight.
Peter Sarsgaard being in the movie gives me so much pause considering his track record recently but I'd really love if Cate and Sally could get some mentions. Nahhh, scrap that, I just want them in a good Woody Allen movie. What other major American director gives actresses lead roles anymore???
On the subject, what a comeback for Cate Blanchett. Nathaniel does not care for her, considering his top 10 list (that was more shade tbh, Indy 4, really???), but homegirl booked Woody Allen, 2 Malicks, a cameo for Peter Jackson, the new George Clooney and now fricking Todd Haynes!!!! Carol is my most anticipated movie in forever!!!
Oooh, Joy! The part Swank plays in The Homesman is very Oscar-baity if the screenplay is true to the book. Forgot about that one.
And I know there's not a lot of love for Jennifer Lawrence on this site, but I wouldn't count out her performance in Serena. Susanne Bier is quite talented at getting to the heart of emotional drama from her actors, and Lawrence did this one before Silver Linings Playbook, before the tidal wave of media attention (not counting teen fans for Hunger Games),
I would agree with Craig that I think Naomi's chances seem particularly good this year. She's clearly on their radar, if only when she's in the type of films Oscar respects and nominates, and the Diana biopic is certainly that type of movie. I do think there's a pretty great chance critics will hate it, and it does seem that people are already rolling their eyes at it, but I can easily see Naomi being spared and even triumphed as the saving grace, as the stars of biopics usually are.
And for whatever reason, I can't really see Naomi and Nicole both getting nominated. I just think, performance aside, voters won't let themselves honor two beautiful, blonde, biopicking Aussie who also happen to be besties.
Welp, let's see. Meryl will surely be in. Roberts would be smart to go supporting because if she gets the reviews, she will probably trounce the competition. I would imagine Harvey will back those two, but there may be enough love left for a Kidman nod.
Winslet and Bullock would have to nail their parts, and despite the incredible Gravity trailer, I'd bet on Winslet first.
Category fraud: if Harvey puts the muscle behind Meryl and the movie is a hit, the race may be over. Adams may have a tough road again, or maybe this is the year they hold her off, waiting for a sure winner (see: Moore, Julianne).
I should probably be smart and say Lawrence comes back, but that Delpy mention is too tempting to resist. For now, I say Bullock, Delpy, Kidman, Streep, Winslet, and I would guess another win for Meryl.
Have seen August Osage County and I'm telling you, I will be shocked if Meryl does not get nominated. She is EVERYTHING in that movie!
I am a Nicole fan, but she doesn't really look much like Grace in set photos, and those things matter when AMPAS is nominating actors in biopics of recent public figures (though I don't really think they should). By contrast, Naomi bears a striking resemblance to Diana in set photos. If she gives a strong performance, I'd say she's in.
I will just be happy for Meryl's 18th nomination! I can see a 4th win but it may be too soon. I can see Judi Dench winning her first Best Actress over Meryl but wonder if the part is as "showy" as AUGUST....
I haven't read the Two Faces o January, but I guess I thought Kirsten was supporting.
Basically the April Fool's Actress and Supporting Actress lists at the Film Experience kickoff my cinematic year, so I am super pumped for so many movies now too. I am feeling Bullock-I think we are in for something wonderful there. Like what 127 Hours should have been.
I am curious why no Swank though-the role seems awfully BAIT-y.
I dont think Immigrant winning something in Cannes would change anything for Harvey. It's clearly a very artsy and not super accessible film, so It will depend on the (critical) reception in the US, not by some festival jury. Actually, so far the reception has been much better than expected, especially after the first rather tepid test screening responses. After the test screenings, this sounded like the least accessible film ever. So, marion cant be crossed off the list, but she is clearly after Nicole, Meryl and Judi. Lets not forget Nicole is already campaigning, and Harvey with her.
Eurocheese,
What do you mean about holding adams back for a sure winner like
Moore?
Julie Delpy is damn great in "Before Midnight." It would be a shame if she's ignored again.
Jo
That was more shade Indy 4?
What does this mean?
Thanks for clarifying.
Suzanne -- i'm already dreading people dissing Nicole in her 40s for not looking like Grace in her early 20s. That's really the problem. People have Grace Kelly at 24 ingrained in their memories never to be removed. But this takes place in the 1960s when Kelly was in her 30s and no longer a movie star. I agree they don't look exactly alike but i think the criticisms will mostly be due to this false equivalency.
Raul -- agreed but don't you think actors don't view this as much of a challenge... these real time "real" person intimate slice of life things. Of course i'm sure it's damn hard to bring this much nuance and realistic shadings to the same woman at different ages. It seems like they always need a gimmick or big moments to understand a great performance (like deglam, or biopic mimicry, or lots of screaming and tears)
melissa -- i wish i remembered the book better. but as i recall it she's the second most major character after the husband (Viggo) with the oscar isaac character being the third character in the triangle.
John T -- i guess i'm assuming that Swank ends up in 2014 since they're filming now (aren't they?) and it's already late May. we'll see.
/3rtful -- but closing the book after an oscar win is exactly what i'm talking about (age aside)
I really don't see the Julie Delpy nomination happening. They didn't nominate her before, and sequels very rarely get attention from Oscar unless their predecessors were acknowledged. The only performance in any sequel to be nominated in at least the last 10 years (just as far back as I checked) in any acting category was Cate Blanchett in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" and that was when Cate was relatively fresh off her Oscar win (3 years), fairly ubiquitous at the time, riding the coattails of her "I'm Not There" buzz the same year, and it was for a role they'd previously loved her in and almost got her the win in 1998. I love Delpy, but they won't go for it.
To Mark:
When you list the top 10 performances of Cate, Indy 4 should not be mentioned, Especially when work like Bandits, Little Fish, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Life Aquatic, Coffee & Cigarettes and Oscar & Lucinda went unmetioned.
Jo: HOT FREAKING FUZZ too, don't forget. 0 to fully shaded in less than three minutes while giving dialogue that should feel painfully on the nose.
@ Jo
Word! And guess who picked up "Carol" just hours ago? -> Harvey Weinstein.
If Cate doesn't get the Leading Oscar this year, it will be next year.
And that David Mamet "Blackbird" project sounds like cool fire, too.
As far as "Blue Jasmine" is concerned, if the film indeed delivers Blanchett is guaranteed the nomination.
Kate Winslet has also prevailed over Meryl
I think everyone is underestimating Cate Blanchett this year. I know Woody Allen is hit-or-miss nowadays, but when he is ON the Academy goes cray cray over his films, and especially with his actors. Cate is very popular with the Academy, hugely respected, a bonafide movie star, and if she delivers in Blue Jasmine and the film isn't a disastrous failure, she's in. I also wouldn't count out a double nomination for her with Monuments Men, considering if her part in the film is substantial enough.
Marion Cotillard is the new Tilda Swinton. I think it's fruitless to predict her nowadays. James Gray has never been an Academy favorite, and I highly doubt this moody, intimate early 20th Century drama will do the trick for her. And Harvey has shinier, more Academy friendly fare this year (Streep & Roberts in A:OC, Kidman in Grace, Dench in Philomena). I'm worried about the quality of Naomi Watts's film, but I think if she delivers, she's a definite possibility. Not to mention the fact that she's one of the few women in contention this year who has never won an Oscar.
Not sure about Winslet in Labor Day. The Academy didn't go for Charlize when she was giving one of the best performances of the year, so I am not sure what they will think of Labor Day. I have a feeling Gravity is going to be a huge critical favorite and that will be excellent for Sandra Bullock, who could easily sail to a nomination considering she's pretty much the sole actor in the film.
I would say: Blanchett, Bullock, Dench, Streep, Watts, with Dench winning her first Lead Oscar.
Cotillard may be out again for the same reasons she was out (in my opinion) last year. I don't think Oscar can handle two foreign actress nominees in the same year (and yes, Cotillard is in an American movie but she speaks a good part of her role in POLISH). You have Berenice Bejo (and with the Past being bought by Sony Pictures Classics they have a good team running their campaign) and Lea Seydoux also getting great word of mouth and buzz from Cannes.
My shot in the dark predictions:
Meryl Streep
Julia Roberts
Sandra Bullock
Cate Blanchett
Berenice Bejo
Outside Looking In: Cotillard, Kidman, Winslet, Dench, and Seydoux
@Jo... you write:
but I was sharing my own opinion so SHOULDN'T i actually share it? as opposed to praising her for work I a) didn't like her in - i thought she was forced in Bandits & Life Aquatic and nothing special in Benjamin Button (though she did look extraordinarily beautiful in it) and b) didn't see her in which I stated (the other films you mentioned. And for those wondering what we're talking about that top ten favorite Blanchett performances was here. It's funny how even when you're trying to praise a beloved actor, you get in trouble if you aren't reverential enough! ;) That was NOT more shade. It was an honest account of how I feel about her as an actor with a lot of explanation as to why I'm not as reverential as others towards her.and...
@Yavor -- why would Cate be guaranteed a lead nomination for a woody allen movie that hit critically when lead nominations for his movies are so freakishly rare? (only 4 ever and 3 of them were in the 70s!)
@fernando -- oops, you're right
oh and to everyone... I'm really starting to suspect that Weinstein buys up as many things as he does specifically to get rid of the competition. Because it does seem like he's always focused on the Best Actress category.
if i were a filmmaker i'd really hesistate to sign with them because they buy so much, release them all at the same time and don't truly get behind all of them. I mean WTF with Coriolanus the other year...