Best Actress Predix: Authors & Astronauts & Immigrants (oh my)
Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 11:30PM And princesses too! Actually I'm predicting neither Princess Grace (Nicole Kidman) nor Princess Diana (Naomi Watts) for the eventual shortlist though their names will undoubtedly continue to come up. Yes, the Best Actress Chart has arrived.
Who wins ANOTHER Oscar this year? So many previous winners are back
My final shortlist is all Oscar winners -- which has only ever happened once (just last year in Supporting Actor ) but this is what my crystal ball is telling me so I obey. And anyway, it's a Previous-Actress-Winning Heavy year at least in terms of who got jobs headlining major motion pictures. Even lower in the charts there are a lot of Oscar winners, all told. It's (maybe) that kind of year... though I could see a scenario where unOscared supporting chart players hop over to Lead Actress if they see a window and their roles are substantial enough (Adams? Harris? Winfrey?). And with 235 days left to go before Oscar nominations are announced, a lot could change: a quickly filmed or under-the-radar movie could hit it big on the fall festival circuit; holiday box office could shift focus around substantially at year's end; films could suddenly be moved to '2014 TBA' status.
Marion Cotillard will win Cannes Best Actress for... oh wait, people said this last year too and it didn't happenThe Wild Card
This time it's not a person but The Weinstein Co. themselves. They've got more actress hopefuls than even they can handle since they're representing Grace of Monaco, The Immigrant, Philomena, August: Osage County and The Butler. (Does this clear the way for Sandra Bullock to win a second Oscar? I'm only mostly kidding) There is about a 1% chance that TWC will stay supportive of all of those films since they regular abandon their runts rather than nurturing them, to concentrate on the pick of the litter. Some of the ladies in question can generate some degree of media and internal industry interest even without puppet masters behind the scenes but not all of them. What do you think TWC will do when it's time to play favorites?
Fun Trivia About The Top Ten on This Chart
- They have 47 acting nominations and 11 acting Oscars between them
- They range in age from 37 to 78 (will it really be a year skewing that mature?)
- 6 of them have competed directly with Meryl Streep for Oscar glory but only one, Sandra Bullock, has ever prevailed in head-to-head combat. (7 & 2 if you count Nicole winning the only Best Actress nomination from The Hours.)
- 3 Australians, 1 French, 3 Brits, 3 Americans
All First Wave Oscar Predictions
Index | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Screenplays | Visuals | Sound | Animation
Reader Comments (119)
Joel6:
About Meryl Streep and your opinion that she won't get a 4th Oscar so soon or even ever. Remember the closest actress to reach Streep's heights Oscar-wise: Katharine Hepburn. And note down the similarities. After waiting for 34 years for her 2nd win, and 8 lost nomination (check!) she won two years in a row (1967 and 1968) and then again in 1981! Her last 3 nominations brought her Oscars number 2, 3 and 4!
marcos -- well, Streep only wait had to wait 29 years for the 3rd win ;) but yeah, i've often thought she would win two in her old age.
Still talking shit about Marion Cotillard and her fanbase, I see. So petty and annoying.
Definitely pulling for Bullock. It's time for great Sci Fi to win in an acting category
and not for technicals only.
Michael, please, no more Oscars for Sandy. The thought of her with two is just unbearable and so, so wrong. Of course if she does win, then nobody can badmouth Ms. Swank's double victory.
Old age is 63? Shoot me in the stomach.
If I were to put a guess on paper right now, I'd say the 5 nominees are as follows:
Julia Roberts - AUGUST OSAGE COUNTY
Meryl Street - AUGUST OSAGE COUNTY
Sandra Bullock - GRAVITY
Judi Dench - PHILOMENA
Greta Gerwig - FRANCES HA
I get a strong MY WEEK WITH MARILYN feeling from a lot of contenders, and while the nomination for Williams in that film is not necessarliy offensive, I don't think time has been good to it in terms of goodwill. It's become a dig of sorts, and I can't help but feel SAVING MR. BANKS, GRACE OF MONACO, and DIANA are gonna be more quickly dismissed as a "MY WEEK WITH MARILYN". That film got a little bit of a free pass in the beginning due to ancitipatory affection for a very likeable and talented star & subject. But now critics and audiences have their eyes peeled for vacant glossier and shinier versions of Lifetime movies.
I just have faith that AUGUST OSAGE COUNTY will be great. I think Meryl will get the nomination b/c she'll be great, and let's face it, she almost always DOES get the nomination. For me, Julia Roberts gave the best female performance in CLOSER and deserved another nod there, and this feels like her chance to get back to that level and beyond. And the trailer frames Julia as the star, unlike in CLOSER where she was "Leading" but so much of that films push seemed to be for Portman. Harvey will love getting BOTH ladies nominated and taking that picture at the nominees luncheon with the two legends flanking him. It'll be bragging rights just to make that scenario happen again for the first time in over 20 years.
I think Sandra Bullock is in, again because I kind of just have faith. I will follow Alfonso Cuaron absolutely anywhere after CHILDREN ON MEN... I would see a Madea film if Cuaron directed it. I almost wish THE BLIND SIDE thing never happened... this nomination would be a 100% given right now if she hadn't won or been nominated (as she shouldn't have been) for that film... I'd put money on it.
I know very little about PHILOMENA but am buying the hype right now and believe that Judi Dench will at least have her "AUTUMN SONATA" nomination if not a win.
I don't discount Delpy for BEFORE MIDNIGHT or Marion Cotillard for THE IMMIGRANT as potential critics darling underdogs... though I'd lean towards Delpy b/c I think an all winner line-up isn't gonna happen. But something feels like the current buzz on FRANCES HA and Gerwig is only the start of the bonfire... like the fans of this performance are saving their steam to REALLY make noise when it matters and only really keeping the kindling hot at this time. Will Delpy's run with critics a few years ago steer them away from the idea of a repeat? Especially when a newer, young and unique talent like Gerwig feels like a great spice to throw into a mix of likely familiar nominees... she also has the angle of really creating her character and helping write the screenplay. Could be the new blood!
In the end, seeing more will certainly shift my opinion, but there's my guess. :-)
Brookesboy,
Sorry you disagree about a second Oscar
nomination for Sandra. I did say it would be nice
to see Sci-Fi get Oscar consideration in categories
other than just technical awards. It has happened.
Sigourney Weaver was nominated for "Aliens" back in
the 80's. Your dislike
of Sandra's Oscar win, and for that matter Hilary
Swank's, two Oscars seems harsh.
James Gray responds almost violently to the critics of The Immigrant, the first truly bad seed in Marion's nomination has been placed:
http://www.indiewire.com/article/the-immigrant-director-james-gray-to-his-cannes-critics-they-can-go-f-ck-themselves?page=2#articleHeaderPanel
xyz -- you really think suggesting that fans want her nominated with each performance is "petty" when it's so very true?
PUBLIC ENEMIES
NINE
RUST & BONE
INCEPTION
RUST & BONE
i have heard fans campaign for another Oscar nomination for literally every single one of these performances and upset when they haven't panned out. i dont think it's "talking shit" to suggest that her fans are one of the most passionate of all actress fanbases and tend to rave about her work and suggest its oscar-worthiness every time.
i don't hate Marion Cotillard so there's no reason to think i'm petty to point this out. I think she deserved nominations for Nine & Rust & Bone.
Not the right year for Claire Danes. She would have had to deal with Natalie Portman and that juggernaut. Maybe she could have knocked off Michelle Williams with the least support in the category that year. Danes was incredible in "Temple Grandin" I agree with that one and Oscarworthy yes!
Wrong thread. My apologies! :))
Has anyone actually SEEN Philomena? I'm reading the novel and I'm nearly 70% into it and the adult Philomena has not yet even appeared. Is this going to be a leading role? Could they have changed the novel so much? So far it's all focused on the son, with the exception of 15% at the beginning, with young Philomena!
Sandra Bullock wouldn't be in Gravity if it wasn't for that undeserved Oscar.
Keegan -- nah. she wouldn't be in Gravity but for the box office of The BLind Side (!!!)
I just finished reading the Philomena novel and there's no way Dench's role is lead. She appears for a few emotional scenes at the very end of the book. Unless, of course, they manipulated the novel quite a bit.
Meryl Streep goes in category actress in a supporting role. I am pleased to see Emma Thompson among yours first five predictions. She play P. L. Travers, author of Mary Poppins: prominent role. The trailer of Saving Mr Banks is beautiful. Emma and Tom Hanks are an excellent couple in action.
My predictions nominations actress in a leading role:
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine.
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County.
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr Banks.
Naomi Watts, Diana.
Kate Winslet, Labor Day.
I am sur about Blanchett and Thompson. I don't know about Roberts, Watts and Winslet.
With Blanchett and Thompson, i Add Dench. She as good review fo Philomena at Festival di Venezia. She is strong contender for "Coppa Volpi migliore attrice". My predictions nominationa are, today:
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine.
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr Banks.
Judi Dench, Philomena.
Kate Winslet, Labor Day.
Amy Adams, American Hustle.