Prediction Stats & Well Wishing

Focus, Nathaniel, focus. So many posts are in embryonic stages of writing so be patient. This day is so demanding but we love it. It's our Christmas (Oscar Night being our New Year's Eve). True, The Academy always delivers a few ungodly lumps of coal (like ignoring Carol in Best Picture) but you take the bad with the good or you go insane. 

First we should begin by saying "Congratulations!" to all the nominees. In the next 48 hours we'll talk about our favorite choices the Academy made, wonder about the headscratchers, say a symbolic farewell to our beloved but snubbed, and cover trivia and such.  If you missed recent interviews with some of the nominees now would be a great time to catch up with them and comment away: Jack Fisk (Production Design, The Revenant), Jacqueline West (Costume Design, The Revenant), Phyllis Nagy (Screenplay, Carol), László Nemes (Foreign Film, Son of Saul), Deniz Gamze Ergüven (Foreign Film, Mustang). More Oscar Nominee interviews are coming soon including Alicia Vikander, Sandy Powell, Chivo, and a little Star Wars: The Force Awakens. 

As for how I did on my predictions? I scored 79% accuracy in the big eight categories but a 74% overall. Not shabby but not great either in one of the more difficult years I've experienced as a pundit. You can see the breakdown on the nomination index page (nailed Actor and Sound Editing, biffed big time on Song & Production Design) or on this blow by blow account. 

Did the morning turn out as you'd predicted?
One things for sure: If you were betting against The Revenant you were viciously mauled by The Academy. They went for it in nearly every category they could save Best Supporting Actress where they passed on Judy the bear.  I'll confess: though I admire much of the craftwork, it's  already my great borennoyance of the season, just grunting and bleeding and sufferring and suffocatingly obssessed with its own masculinity.

7th Time the Charm for Cate & Kate

Murtada here to celebrate the nominations for Cate Blanchett and Kate Winslet. It's the 7th nomination for both. Blanchett for Best Actress in Carol and Winslet for supporting actress in Steve Jobs. (Which means they're both moving up that Oscar Hierarchy) .

The two have always been linked since they have (essentially) the same name and started winning the hearts of cinephiles around the same time in the mid 90s.

Although younger by 6 years it was Winslet who first made a splash in Heavenly Creatures (1994) and received her first Oscar nomination a year later for Sense and Sensibility (1995). Three years after that Blanchett announced herself as a force to be reckoned with - and got her first nomination - with Elizabeth (1998).

Winslet’s other nominations are for Titanic (1997), Iris (2001), Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (2004), Little Children (2006) and The Reader (2008). Blanchett’s are The Aviator (2004), Notes on Scandal (2006), Elizabeth: The Golden Age (2007), I’m Not There (2007) and Blue Jasmine (2013).

Let’s have fun with 7 anecdotes after the jump...

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Live Nomination Stream

Merry Christma-Nomination Day

Clutching Bright Betsy in terror while waiting the wait... 

Alan Rickman (1946-2016)

Heartbreaking. Alan Rickman, one of the UK's most treasured showbiz mainstays has passed away at the age of 69. Though he occassionally dabbled in directing (The Winter Guest and A Little Chaos) he was best known as an actor of stage, tv, and big screen.  He's inarguably best known and beloved for the many years as Professor Snapes in the Harry Potter series. But for me, his career always makes me nostalgic for the early 90s. His career was energized by the success of Die Hard which led to a bunch of movies. 

When I saw Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves (1991) I was shocked that any film could contain so many performances that were all over the map in terms of quality - a chaos of acting styles and fumbles but he was always fun hamming it up as the Sherrif of Nottingham. I immediately typecast him as a villain. A year or two after Robin Hood I discovered in short succession the intense incest drama Close My Eyes (in which he is horrified to discover that is brother-in-law Clive Owen is sleeping with his wife), the claustrophobic thriller Closet Land in which he terrorized my then obsession Madeline Stowe (at the peak of her powers from roughly 1990-1994). But all my limiting ideas that that inimitable voice and the stern face meant he was a screen baddie were blown apart by this next one. My best girlfriend had fallen for this romantic comedy Truly Madly Deeply in which he plays Juliet Stevenson's ghost lover and demanded I see it. I fell hard. For them and the movie.

It's a great rental / streaming idea if you haven't seen it. This scene, which gives it its title, is my single favorite moment in Rickman's filmography.

What's your strongest memory of Alan Rickman's career?

Final Oscar Predictions. What We Got Wrong.... (And Right...?)

UPDATED TO REFLECT ACTUAL OSCAR NOMINATION RESULTS

This post will self destruct in 5...4...3...

With Oscar nominations hitting us first thing in the morning, we'll be frantically updating the Oscar charts to reflect the official history book decisions from our beloved/hated AMPAS and you can look back at this madness and point and laugh. The title of the post is even preemptively self-mocking because the punditry business is tough tough tough in this volatile year. Without further ado here are the predictions we made at the last minute and we'll update later when we know how wrong we were.

PICTURE 
Predictions (9): (locks) Spotlight, The Martian, The Revenant, The Big Short, (probably safe) Mad Max Fury Road, Bridge of Spies, (iffy) Carol, Straight Outta Compton, Room
Alternates (3):  Inside Out, Sicario, Brooklyn

Results: I scored 7/8 here missing Brooklyn where I had Carol... though curiously Carol did far better in the nomination tallies. Straight Outta Compton was probably just outside with Inside Out and Sicario since it managed a screenplay nod.

DIRECTOR
Predictions: Scott (The Martian), Inarittu (Revenant), Miller (Mad Max Fury Road), McCarthy (Spotlight), McKay (Big Short) 
Alternates: Haynes (Carol), Villeneuve (Sicario), Abrahamson (Room) 

Results: 4/5 I assumed Ridley Scott was the strongest lock for direction -- as I think most people did but he was the one shut out. Lenny Abrahamson took his place reminding us again that the DGA nods almost always feature one man who's going to be replaced when Oscar chimes in.

more...

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