First Oscar Predictions of the Year - Complete!

Whew. That took longer than expected but you can now see all of the "April Foolish" first-round predictions for this Oscar year, albeit compiled in May & June and delivered to you in early July. Since the first wave of 20 categories takes so long to compile (updates are easier) we should note up front that James Vanderbilt's Nuremberg, another film centered on the Nuremberg Trials, was scheduled for a November 2025 release after the weeks of research for these charts so it is not yet included.  That said we can hardly claim it a certainty as a competitor. World War II is no longer automatic "Bait" for voters, Vanderbilt is not (yet) an Oscar player and though the cast has four previously nominated actors none are the sort that Oscar voters ALWAYS watch regardless. Anyway, we'll save it for the next up date.

What follows are a dozen key questions were asking ourselves in July about the upcoming competition before things really heat up during the fall film festivals. We've love to hear your thoughts on these 12 questions...

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Oscar Predix: Which actresses will receive their first Oscar nomination this coming season?

by Nathaniel R

Rose Byrne, Ayo Edebiri, and Renata Reinsve

We're almost done with the first round predictions for the Oscar charts. Today, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress and the question most prominent on our minds is which women will have "Oscar Nominee" after their names forever more? It's hard to tell this far out but we have some inkling of the possibilities...

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Oscar Predix: Which actors will have big years?

by Nathaniel R

Jonathan Bailey in WICKED FOR GOOD

This post's titular prompt question is not quite the same as "Who will be Oscar nominated this coming winter?" but having a big year in your career never hurts in gaining awards traction... or at least momentum for a future year. Will Jonathan Bailey's suddenly A-list career (with two potential giant blockbusters in a span of five months) convince Oscar voters that his SAG nomination last year should be mirrored with an Oscar nod for Best Supporting Actor? Will Sinners cultural dominance this spring help Michael B Jordan and Delroy Lindo land their first overdue Oscar nods early next year or will the zeitgiest move on?

These are just a couple of the questions I've been asking myself about the upcoming Oscar races for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor but there's more after the jump...

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The siren song of "Sinners" vampires

By Lynn Lee   

[Warning: SPOILERS]  Sinners has a secret hiding in plain sight, and it’s not the vampires. You'll have the chance to see this delightful surprise for yourself  (if you haven't already) when Sinners arrives on HBO/Max on July 5.  Sinners isn’t really – or at least isn't exclusively – a horror movie.  At its core it’s a musical, and a thumping good one at that.  Or, as one review headline put it: “Finally, A Transcendental Southern Gothic Vampire Musical Blockbuster.” 

I would never have predicted that combination of words could describe a Ryan Coogler movie, yet here we are.  Joking aside, it’s as apt a tribute as any to the impressive scope and ambition of his cinematic moonshot...

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Oscar Predix: Which Animated Films Should We Watch Out For?

by Nathaniel R

Can ZOOTOPIA 2 overcome the Academy's resistance to animated sequels?

It's often hard to know from a distance whether a year will be competitive in Best Animated Feature or not. It isn't always based on the quality of the eligibility pool. The default situation is that the early hyped Disney or Disney/Pixar stays dominant from first buzz to Oscar night, whether there's week or strong competition (Coco  and Toy Story 4, respectively, being good examples) though occassionally the Mouse House competitor that looks strongest from a distance concedes quickly to a less hyped sibling that proves more popular (Luca to Encanto or Moana to Zootopia). But in a solid amount of years the race eventually does get competitive albeit only between two films.What usually happens is that the original frontrunner manages to stave off an unexpectedly strong or deserving competition (Pinocchio vs Puss in Boots: The Last Wish or Soul vs Wolfwalkers). In the past two years, though, we've had a strong frontrunner that lost its strangehold on "Best" prizes when an international title soared in the 11th hour (Boy and the Heron vs Into the Spider-Verse and, even more dramatically, Flow vs Wild Robot). On rare occassions the race gets ultra competitive wherein three or more nominees feel possible (remember 2012?) only for the Academy to default to Pixar again. What kind of year will the 98th Academy Awards bring? 

This year the crystal ball looks quite cloudy...

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