First Predictions: Adapted & Original Screenplays

by Nathaniel R

Four inspirations for 2026 movies: Mrs Dalloway becomes CLARRISA, The Unfaithful Wife becomes MINOTAUR, Rocky (1976) gets a making of bio with I PLAY ROCKY, and of course the bestseller turned blockbuster PROJECT HAIL MARY

As someone who never used to have writers block but who has it frequently now, I have a newly reinvigorated respect for fellow writers who perservere. That said, the screenwriters life can't be easy given the amount of script doctoring, star and director and studio "notes", multiple drafts, and anything else that can change an original concept or even an adapted one -- and what is the difference really in some cases? Cheers to anyone who sees anything they wrote up on screen, even if it's only partially their vision in the end. Let's look at some Oscar possibilities after the jump...

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First Predictions: Music / Sound Categories

by Nathaniel R

The year's surest bet: A 55th Oscar nomination for John Williams scoring DISCLOSURE DAY © Universal

Encourage me to keep going with these charts via comments. Let's talk sound and music. These categories generally stay mysterious until late in the year since post-production is such a heavy part of eligibility and credits for music and sound categories. Sometimes they'll switch out composers after filming has ended! And of course Original Song is notoriously hard to predict. 

One thing that feels certain, though, is that John Williams will receive his 55th nomination for the score to Disclosure Day. John Williams just turned 94 which will mean that he is likely to break two of his own records (again) as the most nominated person ever AND as the oldest person to ever receive an Oscar nomination (any category). He currently holds the latter record for his nomination at 91 for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023). The Academy's music branch never passes up an opportunity to vote for him, even if the film isn't in play anywhere else...

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First Predictions: Best Costume Design!

by Nathaniel R

Jacqueline Durran's work on WUTHERING HEIGHTS was the first gauntlet thrown for the 99th Oscars Best Costume Design race. © Warner Bros Pictures

Dearest (im)patient readers. The time has come. Let's dive into our April Foolish first round Oscar predictions of the year. We'll put up one category (or more) per day until it's complete. To kick us off, the sartorial wonders of Best Costume Design. Last season my medals went to the juke joint 30s fashions of Sinners, the colliding cultures of midcentury NYC in Marty Supreme, and the retrofuturism of Fantastic Four: First Steps... but Oscar felt differently giving the statue to the gonzo insectoid / color fetishism of Frankenstein. We can only hope the 2026 film year has as many stellar options. And if you stop to think about it, the year has already started with something of a bang...

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Very Gay Film/Very Straight Guy: “Stranger by the Lake”

For pride month, straight critic Ben Miller takes a look back at a gay film he otherwise would have never seen

When I decided to begin this series, I committed myself to not just dip my toe in. I needed to dive headfirst into the gayest possible film I could think of. It would be disingenuous to talk about something as tame or commercially viable as Brokeback Mountain, Carol, or Moonlight. This was going to be a celebration and discussion of something the straight world does not and will not seek out.

I chose correctly.

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2026 Cannes Winners + Oscar Submission Speculation

by Nathaniel R

FJORD wins the coveted Palme d'Or. Will Oscars nominations follow for Cristian Mungiu, Renate Reinsve, and Sebastian Stan? ?

Will the 2026 Cannes Festival have lasting impact on this cinematic year? With the oft-reported absence of major Hollywood outings at the 79th festival, the best we might hope for (for those of us on the other side of the ocean) is a similar or muted echo to last year when the four non-English features that dominated the Cannes conversation (It Was Just An Accident, Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, Sirāt) proved to have incredible staying power, wowing audiences from their May 2025 premieres all the way through the culmination of awards season on Oscar night in March of 2026. Not all of the award-winning films from a year ago held strong the whole film year, of course; Sound of Falling, The President's Cake, The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo, award-winning in May, struggled to make a big impact several months later with quieter distribution and media reactions.  Now that the 2026 edition of the festival has wrapped Fjord, Fatherland, The Black Ball, Minotaur, A Man of His Time, All of a Sudden, and Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma, as well as all of the non-winning films will now face the broader audience endurance test as they make their way through international markets. Will we see any of the 2026 Cannes titles in the mix come Oscar season, still building large devout fanbases? Not every film that wins big at Cannes "plays" elsewhere and some which come up empty-handed on the Croisette become awards players in other contexts (like Oscar or equivalent awards in their home countries).

The winners from the 79th Annual Cannes Film Festival and some commentary after the jump... 

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