Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

The 92nd annual Academy Awards are almost upon us. They're just 29 days away at this writing. We'll have the official Oscar charts back up for you as soon as is humanly possible once the potentially exciting event has occurred on Monday (they're coming down now to prep for Monday's unfurling). But until then, it's time to make final predictions.

BEST PICTURE

The sure things: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, The Irishman, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, 1917. That's six titles that we can't imagine missing on Monday morning given their success to date in precursor awards and with critics and the public. The extremely probable: Marriage Story. The only reason we've begun to worry is that there's been virtually no traction for Noah Baumbach in Best Director which suggests that people have reduced the movie to "an actor's showcase"... but then where was the SAG Outstanding Cast nomination? It's likely in but if there's a shock omission Monday morning...

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Producers Guild goes with Oscar's expected top ten... no box office deviations this year.

The Producers Guild have announced their nominations for the film and television year. Unlike in some previous years they've ignored unexpected non-prestige-ready blockbusters this time, focusing exclusively on films expecting to do well on Oscar nomination morning.

Little Women isn't down for the count yet in the Best Picture raceOutstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

• 1917 Producers: Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne‐Ann Tenggren, Callum McDougall
• Ford v Ferrari Producers: Peter Chernin & Jenno Topping, James Mangold
• The Irishman Producers: Jane Rosenthal & Robert De Niro, Emma Tillinger Koskoff & Martin Scorsese
• Jojo Rabbit Producers: Carthew Neal, Taika Waititi
• Joker Producers: Todd Phillips & Bradley Cooper, Emma Tillinger Koskoff
• Knives Out Producers: Rian Johnson, Ram Bergman
• Little Women Producer: Amy Pascal
• Marriage Story Producers: Noah Baumbach, David Heyman
• Once Upon a Time in… Hollywood Producers: David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh, Quentin Tarantino
• Parasite Producers: Kwak Sin Ae, Bong Joon Ho

In short, it's Best Picture predictions again. I know people have issues with the MCU but since this award is for producers, it seems strange to shun the gargantuan producing effort that worked so hard for 12 years to culminate in Avengers Endgame. Thinking it should have been here. Also strange to ignore the in-no-way-a-sure-thing success of The Farewell and Hustlers which just as easily could have been a indies that everyone ignored but for their success in execution and delivery. But then, those films are about women and most of the mainstream awards bodies prefer stories about men (sigh)

But all is not lost for films that didn't make this list and all is not secure for films that did make this list. Here's a trivia list for you...

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How often do two top Globe victories translate to Oscar gold?

by Abe Fried-Tanzer

Sam Mendes had a great night on Sunday when he took home both Best Director and Best Motion Picture – Drama for his war epic 1917. That two-hander worked out very well for him exactly twenty years ago for his debut feature, American Beauty, since he went on to repeat at the Oscars. Winning both prizes at both ceremonies, however, doesn’t actually happen often. 

Between Mendes’ two bookends, that feat has only occurred twice...

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Taron Egerton WANTS that Oscar nomination

by Ben Miller

Elton & Taron at another ROCKETMAN screening

There’s long been an awards season cliché along the lines of 'I didn’t expect this and I’m so grateful to the Academy for the recognition.'  Let’s not kid ourselves, some talent understands the process of what it takes to get an Oscar nomination. That includes schmoozing with Academy members, attending press junkets and sitting on every late-night couch you can find.

No one understands this better in the current season than Taron Egerton.

Following his Golden Globes victory on Sunday night for the Elton John biopic Rocketman, Egerton is well poised to snag one of the Best Actor slots precisely because he has done the work and put himself in front of the most faces in the lead up to the Oscar nominations...

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A Best Picture think... what if there were only five?

by Nathaniel R

 

Consensus is taking clear shape with film critics and awards bodies. They're finding Parasite the very best film of 2019 fairly regularly now. In terms of both critics and larger more 'industry' organizations Martin Scorsese's elegaic The Irishman is leading the English language films in nomination counts and prizes. Noah Baumbach's impressive superbly-acted dramedy Marriage Story and Tarantino's shape-shifting gorgeously executed 1969 homage Once Upon a Time in Hollywood are not far behind in the collective love sweepstakes. That could mean that any of those four will be vying for the Best Picture win at the Oscars in February. With the preferential ballot it helps to have passion votes and all of them have that. It also helps to be everyone's second or third favourite and each of those films could theoretically score high on virtually any voter's ballot.

But what's in fifth place?

Since 2011 rules have been in place to deliver between 5 to 10 Best Picture nominees depending on percentages of votes. To date, though, this system has only produced years with either 8 or 9 nominees for the top prize. But a though exercize today. Which of the remaining films would make it in a year with only 5 films in play...

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