Globe Winner Predictions. A Nail Biting Night?

I normally look forward to Golden Globe night with the feverish pitch I otherwise save for Oscar Nomination Morning and Oscar Night itself. They're the holy trinity of awards season Father (Oscar Noms), Son (Oscar Night) and uh... Holy Ghost (The Globes). Well, there are spirits involved. I expect that the drunkest table will belong to The Help or Bridesmaids. Here's to inebriated ladies!

And here are my predictions. I'm just going for it and predicting a return to... January 2003. Wait, what? Read on!

MOVIES

BEST PICTURE, DRAMA

• The Descendants
• The Help
• Hugo
• The Ides of March
• Moneyball
• War Horse 

With most of the attention swinging towards The Artist, Best Picture Drama feels like a free for all this year. Three films (The Descendants, Hugo and The Help) look like feasible winners since they've retained heat after the nominations. Common wisdom points to the inexplicable near-universal love for The Descendants but for whatever reason I'm imagining a repeat of the 2002/2003 Globes season wherein the throbbing heart of a female epic (The Hours) beat out an expensive Scorsese film and the Alexander Payne film about the widower dealing with his angry daughter whilst having spiritual awakenings. (Gangs of New York and About Schmidt)
Prediction: The Help
Spoiler: The Descendants 

BEST PICTURE, COMEDY or MUSICAL

• 50/50
• The Artist
• Bridesmaids
• Midnight in Paris
• My Week With Marilyn

This one seems all sewn up for The Artist but I think it's worth noting that the Comedy or Musical category tends to be where the Golden Globes house their biggest surprises on average. That said a defeat for the Artist would be the kind of shocker that only happens once a decade. 
Prediction: The Artist
Spoiler: Bridesmaids (imagine the uproar!) 

BEST DIRECTOR 

• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• George Clooney, The Ides of March
• Michel Hazanavicus, The Artist
• Alexander Payne, The Descendants
• Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Hazanavicius may or may not be the frontrunner for the Oscar. It's tough to say with lesser known directors when they're battling cinematic giants who win awards based on their whole filmography rather than the specific film they're up for. But I'm guessing that the presence of Woody Allen pulls enough votes from Martin Scorsese to keep Hazanavicius in the lead.
Prediction: Hazanavicius
Spoiler: Scorsese

PREDICTIONS IN ALL CATEGORIES after the jump...

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Interview: Bret McKenzie from The Muppets and Middle Earth

Bret McKenzie at the Muppets premiere in 2011Oscar's music branch has been known to throw an unpleasant curveball over the years  in the Original Song category (no Cher performance last year? Ouch! No Springsteen in 2008?! It still stings.) but if they don't deliver us a performance by the resurgent Muppets on the February broadcast, felt fur will surely fly. We get so few original musicals these days so The Muppets was the go to musical comedy last year.

Bret McKenzie has given Oscar ample reason to include the beloved characers on the big night. The actor/musician, most famous as one half of the Flight of the Conchords duo and soon to be seen as an Elf in Middle Earth (however briefly) in The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey wrote two songs that have landed on Oscar's Best Original Song eligibility list: "Life's a Happy Song" and "Man or Muppet". (The third eligible song from the movie "Pictures in My Head" has different composers).

I spoke to him recently on his awards buzz, his cult hit show and (very briefly) Middle Earth. He calls the response to his Muppets songs "Pretty incredible. I did not expect to get awards for this movie."

Nevertheless, the honors have been coming. Both of his Oscar eligible songs are up for the Critics Choice Award this Thursday (imagine competing with Elton John!) and who knows? An Oscar nomination (or even two!) could follow. 

Nathaniel R: Did you feel crazy pressure about taking on this job. The Muppets have "The Rainbow Connection" which is an all time classic. The music is very connected to their whole mythology. 

BRET MCKENZIE: It was a very intimidating job, taking on Paul williams shoes. Luckily I wrote one song at a time for it. Initially I wasn't writing three or four so I didn't feel so much pressure. But one of my friends was like 'Oh man, you're never going to write another 'Rainbow Connection' [Laughs] I was like 'Yeah, you're right!'

But, you know, we just did our thing really. Luckily James  [James Bobin director of The Muppets who also had a hand in Flight of the Conchords] and I had just spent the last five years doing Conchords. We had done a lot of comedy musical numbers so we were pretty comfortable with the genre. The challenge was just to make sure that the songs felt like Muppet songs.

Nathaniel: Was this a situation where they knew exactly where they wanted a song. "It goes here and it's about this!"? 

Bret: That's exactly it. When I came on they'd already done the script. I went in to James' office and he had the film mapped out on script cards on the wall, white cards. A blue card was a song. There were songs scattered throughout the movie. That's how we did Conchords as well, so you didn't have songs back to back. They had these sort of loose ideas for what the songs should be. They'd actually -- by the time I came on -- already had dozens of demos submitted. They got lots of people to write songs and they went through and chose their favorites. It was surprising how difficult it was for people to write songs that fit into the musical format.

So you knew which characters your songs would be for ahead of time.

Yes. I was writing for Gary and Walter who didn't exist. I knew who Jason Segel was. I had seen Forgetting Sarah Marshall so I knew him.  I knew he could sing a bit which is always good. Then I got the job of writing the rap for Chris Cooper which was one of the highlights of the film, teaching him how to rap. He's a very serious actor, an Academy Award wining actor. He was quite method! [Laughs] We're quite different people. I'm quite bubbly and he's very serious. 

Even about rapping?

He took it very seriously. He wanted to make sure it was a solid rap performance. I taught him over Skype how to rap! 

Did you test the Muppet music on your kids to see how they responded?

Musical Comedy Divas & Muppet-like Middle Earth Directors ...after the jump!

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Golden Globe Nominee Madness

It's the last of the big three precursor nominee announcements this morning. Hot on the heels of the BFCA and the SAG announcement we have the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, more commonly known as the Golden Globes. Film and television stars Gerard Butler, Woody Harrelson, Rashida Jones and Sofia Vergara announced the nominees at 8:30 AM EST which went like so...

MOVIES

BEST PICTURE, DRAMA

• The Descendants
• The Help
• Hugo
• The Ides of March
• Moneyball
• War Horse 

For a split second when we reached five nominees I thought War Horse would be shut out and for once the Globes wouldn't stump for one of the big movies that was about to open, but nope. The Ides of March is the iffiest film here for an Oscar transfer given lukewarm reception but it's still possible. Especially since it's right in their wheelhouse. 

Ryan Gosling drank the Clooney Koolaid in "Ides of March". So did the HFPA who gave Clooney 3 nominations and Gosling 2

BEST PICTURE, COMEDY or MUSICAL

• 50/50
• The Artist
• Bridesmaids
• Midnight in Paris
• My Week With Marilyn

 People are wondering how Marilyn is a comedy. But, you know, Kenneth Branagh is very funny in it.

It's like teaching Urdu to a badger.

Plus it's got musical numbers so I think it qualifies for their split. The Artist probably has this in the bag but for the Globes willingness to surprise (i.e. far more than other groups) 

BEST DIRECTOR 

• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• George Clooney, The Ides of March
• Michel Hazanavicus, The Artist
• Alexander Payne, The Descendants
• Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Sofia Vergara garbled cutely as she does. "Marine Scorsez" is quite the auteur! Expected list here but for Clooney who was an already a guaranteed show at the ceremony due to the Best Actor nom. The HFPA gets a lot of flack for star-fucking but some of their decisions can't really be explained that way. The star doesn't get to show up twice if you nominated them thusly, and you've cut off the opportunity for another star to show.

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA

• Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
• Viola Davis, The Help
• Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
• Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
• Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin

People are going to love Mara as "Lisbeth Salander" in that movie so this isn't too much of a surprise. Plus there was room with Williams heading to Comedy/Musical. This omission hurts Kirsten Dunst's campaign. Her traction seemed to begin and end with the Cannes prize for Melancholia. Also shut out was Elizabeth Olsen for Martha Marcy May Marlene.

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY or MUSICAL

• Jodie Foster, Carnage
• Charlize Theron, Young Adult
• Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
• Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
• Kate Winslet, Carnage

In perhaps the biggest surprise of the morning, Carnage snagged 40% of the Female Comedy honors though the film didn't garner a comedy film nod and having Foster and Winslet (who was already coming for Mildred Pierce) knocked out their opportunity to invite Cameron Diaz or somesuch. See what I mean about cock-blocking their own star-fucking?

I think they can mail this one to Michelle Williams.

more after the jump

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SAG Nominations: Surprising, Silly, Shame-less

Regina King and Judy Greer announced the SAG nominees

Before we begin can I get something off my chest. You've possibly noticed that I always list actresses before actors when I do lists or my own awardage. Beyond my own actressexuality there is another reason for this. It galls me that they're listed second everywhere as if they're just slightly less important than actors. Now, you might say that's just a matter of alphabetics since "Actor" comes before "Actress" in correct alphabetization and that's true enough. But it's not only alphabetics, its our lazily sexist society. Please to note that SAG makes a point of calling all acting professionals "actors" without gender division and yet they do this and then STILL list men first even though "female" comes before "male" in correct alphabetization of category titles.

Grrrrr and also "girl!"

So women first when I list it because that's how we like it! 

MOVIES

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCES BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE 

• The Artist
• Bridesmaids
• The Descendants
• The Help
• Midnight In Paris

These are strong nominees this year but as usual they left great actors out, even when their films were nominated.  Some comments on that problem in a separate post.

One theory of SAG ensemble voting is that actors vote for the movies that they wish they'd been in and that theory definitely holds up this year. All five of these sets must have been a blast when you think of the actors involved, the costumes, the color, the comedy (all five have comedic spirit even the two that are dramas).

poll by twiigs.com

It's also worth noting that this list is 80% identical to the BFCA list for ensemble. The only difference is you need to swap out Midnight in Paris for Ides of March. Still... it's clear that voters don't watch the more under the radar movies. I wish A Separation had opened a few months ago and built up to the acclaim it so deserves.

How fun would a win for Bridesmaids be as a ceremony capper? I demand a Wilson Phillips song be played when they take the stage should it occur.

COMPLETE LIST OF NOMINEES & MAJOR SURPRISES AFTER THE JUMP. 

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The Tree of Link

Nicks Flick Picks looks at the cinematography of Todd Haynes masterwork Safe (1995).
Scene Stealers chooses the ten best cinematography jobs of the past decade, with The Tree of Life the only current film to place.
In Contention on Fox News freakout over The Muppets liberal agenda. 
Paper Mag has an enjoyable profile of Kristen Wiig and her superstar-making year 
Karine Vanasse ...will we see her again after Pan Am flies away? I find TV news difficult to follow so I'll admit total confusion when shows randomly show up on my DVR or move networks or whatnot but apparently this charming French Canadian actress says Pan Am has been cancelled and the network says it's just on hiatus? My point is that I watch the show and am totally in l'amour with her.

The Hollywood Reporter worries that the AMPAS demographic (which skews very male) may hurt The Help. Of course this argument supposes that only women would like The Help.
The Wrap though it's a rather unusual decision, given its history, this year's Vanguard Award at the Santa Barbara Film Festival is not going to a well known acting legend but to the two stars of The Artist Bérénice Bejo and Jean Dujardin. That's a major get for the Weinstein Co moving into the Oscars.
Forbes did one of those "return on investment" things to rank actors. Kristen Stewart is named the best deal with $55.83 earned for every $1 spent on her. Anne Hathaway comes in at #2 with $45.67 for every $1. Most of the list is composed of people in franchises so the numbers are quite skewed; Harry Potter is the star of Harry Potter and Twilight is the star of Twilight if you get me. Meryl Streep, who isn't exactly known for franchise appears, does make the list though with $13.54 earned for every $1 she's paid.

on embargos, social media and film critics in general
Carpet Bagger David Fincher on embargo breaking. He doesn't want any advance screenings and thinks the best film critics are moviegoers who text their friends (oy! the self-serving pomposity of some people. And I love Fincher)
AV Club Sign of the Apocalypse. Twitter-friendly seats in theaters as trend? Thousands of little glowing screens to distract you from the big one. Ugh.
Telegraph Kevin Spacey isn't having any of it. This is our favorite Kevin Spacey anything in like 12 years.

Top Ten o' the Day -David Denby
Speaking of embargos and film critics... Fast on the heels of the Dragon Tattoo ruckus, we have Denby's top ten list on which it does not appear. It's a mixture of lazy fandom (J Edgar? Ugh... seriously. I'm going to have to assume that critics who label this a top ten'er only saw 30 or 40 movies this year and even then, you'll have to make concessions.) and the highbrow like Certified Copy and the Tree of Life about which he begins, affectionately, this way...

Yes, I know, Terrence Malick’s movie is unbearably high-minded and humorless. But still! 

All in all an interesting list and suggests that for Denby, two types of entertainments are generally favored: intellectual puzzlers and popcorn entertainment for the masses (Source Code, Contagion and Rise of the Planet of the Apes all appear).