What Are Each Actor's Chances at Oscars Post-SAG Nominations?

By: Christopher James

After a surprise omission at the SAG Awards, what are Michelle Williams' chances at scoring an Oscar nomination for The Fabelmans?Now that the SAG Awards nominations have been announced, we have a slightly clearer picture of the acting races as we get closer to Oscar nomination morning. I use the word “slightly” because there’s always room for surprises. In fact, last year saw four acting nominees earn Oscar nominations without any precursor citations from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards.

At this stage of the awards race, we have two questions to ask. Which actor with nominations from all three groups will be snubbed by Oscar? Which actor can sneak in without these precursors?

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Team Experience Predictions Chart - Round 4 - Post Holidays, Pre Awards Shows

We're polling the Team Film Experience on where the Oscar race stands. This week Best Picture, Director, and the Acting and Writing categories.

It has been over a month since we’ve checked in on the directing, acting and writing categories. Since then, Avatar has soared at the box office, Babylon has flopped and both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards have announced their nominations. Some categories look completely different than they did at the end of November. Others, funny enough, remain the same. One category has a contender who is unanimously on the top of everyone’s predictions… and it’s not the one you think. 

Check out our predictions after the jump…

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Oscar Volley: Who will take the fifth slot in Best Actress?

Team Experience will be discussing each Oscar category as we head into the precursors. Here's Nick Taylor and Eurocheese...  

NICK: We’ve arrived at the most crowded acting category of year, which doesn’t necessarily mean this category will be difficult to predict. If you look at the fifteen women in Nathaniel’s Best Actress predictions -- I think Lesley Manville should be higher for Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris -- you can see that the fifth slot is going to be a bloodbath. It makes it even harder to narrow things down when so many of the turns are fantastic. The sheer amount of chaos offered from the this category in the past couple years makes it hard for me to feel comfortable with setting anything in stone even as we reach the end of the year. 

I wanna honor the messiness of the category, from year to year, and spice up how we order this volley. Euro, of all the leading actresses from 2022 with minimal-to-no Oscar buzz, who would you rank among the very best?

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Team Experience Predix - Round 1: Post-Thanksgiving Snapshot

We'll be polling Team Experience biweekly to get their (collective) take on the Oscar race. This week, the 'Big Six' categories and Screenplay prizes.

THE FABELMANS

BEST PICTURE

Click to get expanded view.It’s a dangerous business to be an early frontrunner. However, if anyone can handle that title, it’s Steven Spielberg...

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The glorious Danielle Deadwyler in "Till"

by Nathaniel R

Danielle Deadwyler in "Till"

Often times Oscar buzz arrives before a performance seen on the basis that the role will be a) meaty b) important-feeling and c) feature typically awards-friendly elements. There's a reason this happens frequently. Voters of all awards bodies, not just the Academy, are sometimes guilty of awarding the role in question rather than thinking about what the actor actually did with their big opportunity. The unfortunate byproduct of this is that sometimes, no matter how much an actor elevates it, people might assume "well, it was the role". In these scenarios even the enthusiasm around the performance can feel a little rote because it's expected. It arguably happens with most biopic roles now. The role of Mamie Till-Mobely, the mother of Emmett Till who channeled her grief at her son's murder into Civil Rights activism, meets all those pre-release requirements for buzz and a likely nomination even if Danielle Deadwyler hadn't been incredible. The very good news is that she most definitely is...

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