A rough weekend for Oscar hopefuls at the Box Office

by Nathaniel R

What did you see over the weekend? Though a lot of Oscar hopefuls struggled, this weekend was but the preamble to a big holiday weekend so this coming week will tell a much broader story of which films the public is responding too. More commentary after the jump...

Weekend Box Office  (Nov 16-18)
W I D E 800+ screens	PLATFORM / LIMITED excluding prev. wide
1 🔺   Fantastic Beasts 2 $62.1 on 4163 screens *NEW*	1 🔺 Boy Erased $1.3 on 409 screens (cum. $2.6) Podcast

2 Dr Seuss' The Grinch $38.5 on 4141 screens (cum. $126.9) Posterized	2🔺 Can You Ever Forgive Me $893k on 555 screens (cum. $5) Review, Podcast

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Can You Ever Forgive the Box Office?

by Nathaniel R

Dear readers, we don't know why we relay the box office charts each week because they can be depressing. Films that should be giant hits are not and vice versa. With great regularity. We've learned to adjust our expectations so that now films that seem like giant hits made for adults are actually just modest hits if you compare them to year's past and so on. But for what it's worth here are this week's charts... 

Weekend Box Office Estimates (Nov 9-11)
W I D E 800+ screens	PLATFORM / LIMITED excluding prev. wide
1  Dr Seuss the Grinch $66 on 4141 screens *NEW* Posterized	1 🔺 Can You Ever... $1.4 on 391 screens (cum. $3.6) Review, Podcast

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Bohemian was the dom top of the weekend

Weekend Box Office - Actuals November 2nd-4th 🔺 = New or Expanded Theater Count
W I D E 800+ screens	PLATFORM / LIMITED excluding prev. wide
1.🔺Bohemian Rhapsody $51 *NEW* Review, Podcast	1.🔺Beautiful Boy $1.3 540 screens (cum. $3.1)  Podcast
2.🔺Nutcracker & the... $20.3 *NEW* Review	2.Johnny English 2 $1  on 552 screens (cum. $3.2)
3.🔺Nobody's Fool $13.7  *NEW*	3.Free Solo $1  363  screens (cum. $6.8)
4. A Star is Born $11 (cum. $165.5)  Review, Soundtrack, Podcast	4.🔺Can You Ever Forgive Me? $1 180 screens (cum. $1.7) Review, Podcast
5. Halloween $10.8  (cum. $150.2) Review	5.🔺Suspiria $979k 311 screens (cum. $1.2) Podcast

What did you see this weekend? Want-to-see factor on the Queen movie Bohemian Rhapsody was huge (Bryan Singer's alleged crimes and the sometimes-harsh reviews didnt deter people). Meanwhile Boy Erased enjoyed the weekend's top per screen average but at only 5 screens earning $207k -- a solid start for its platform Oscar-campaign intentions.

Does Box Office Matter to Best Actress Hopefuls?

by Nathaniel R

Helen Mirren's The Queen was in many ways a completely standard win... a solid success before the nomination and an even bigger hit afterwardsDoes Box Office matter to Oscars? It does and it doesn't. And how much it matters varies from year to year and from category to category. It obviously matters, regardless, if you're either a flop or a big hit but anything inbetween (where most movies fall) is up for speculative debate.

For instance, just this year people have debated whether The Wife's box office take is strong enough for a Best Actress nomination for Glenn Glose (hint: it totally is... though winning will be harder) and whether it will matter that Roma won't really have that much of a theatrical presence (it might. it might not. The streaming only/mostly thing is relatively uncharted territory) or if the major success of A Star is Born will make a win possible for Lady Gaga (it won't hurt!)

For fun let's look at how much the Best Actress nominees films made before they were nominated for the past fifteen years and see what patterns emerge. The films in red won Best Actress Oscars.

BOX OFFICE RANK OF BEST ACTRESS FILMS
BEFORE THE NOMINATIONS (2003-2017)
AND WHERE THIS YEAR'S LEADING ACTRESSES CURRENTLY FIT...

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Halloween stays on top. Suspiria packs houses (albeit only two of them)

by Nathaniel R

Staying power or lack of competition? Halloween, A Star is Born, and Venom held on to the top three spots in wide release (with Venom booting Crazy Rich Asians out of the top ten films of 2018...sigh) while the platforming Oscar hopefuls continued their slow crawl towards public awareness beyond people like us if you know what I mean...

Weekend Box Office Estimates (October 26-28)
W I D E 800+ screens	PLATFORM / LIMITED excluding prev. wide
1.  Halloween $32 (cum. $126.6) Review	1. 🔺 Johnny English Strikes Again $1.6 on 544 screens *NEW*

2. A Star is Born $14.1 (cum. $148.7) Review, Soundtracking, Podcast	2. 🔺 Free Solo $1 on 394 screens (cum. $5.1)

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