Best Actress - Who will dance with Oscar?

While Best Actress remains the most impressively competitive category, the buzz has been so deafening on Natalie Portman and Emma Stone's work in Jackie and La La Land respectively, that we have our first acting nomination "locks" of the year. Yes, I hate to use the word so early -- i generally prefer not to use it until after a film has opened -- but in this case it applies.

Short of either of these well loved actresses murdering someone casually or becoming a spokesperson for Trump on his campaign trail their traction for Best Actress is a done deal. Having now seen both pictures it's tough to imagine either of them missing; their movies are probable Best Picture Contenders which hang on their every flickering bit of feeling. And they've both got multiple "clips" galore for award show reels, clips that will look like "of course she won the Oscar!" in retrospect should either of them manage the win.

So spots three through five is where the true competition is. Most people feel that Ruth Negga is a given for Loving -- though how a movie fares in release is often a factor and it's not out yet. One worrying factor is that she's significantly less famous than most of her competition. Everyone is banking on Viola Davis being spectacular in Fences but we must remind everyone (and also ourselves despite our raggedy "Team Viola" t-shirts!) that nobody has seen the picture; history has many examples of stage-to-screen transfers that underwhelmed. Beyond those two we have Oscar regulars like Meryl Streep (always a threat even if she doesn't campaign), Amy Adams (always a threat and always campaigns hard), and Annette Bening (unless the movie is waiting too long to make its move). And then there's "critical darling" possiblities like Isabelle Huppert. I've been harping on this for some time, I know, but I remain convinced that she could happen as a nominee. Natalie & Emma being so far out front actually makes passion votes more important because with both of them sucking up so many votes, other women will need to stick out in the hearts of voters to fight their way in. 

It's also fair to wonder what Globe Comedy/Musical nominations could do to boost profiles of particular actresses. Hmmmm...

GLOBE COMEDY / MUSICAL ACTRESS
the possibilities

Lock-ish
Stone - La La Land
Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins
It's easy to imagine them as nominees...
Field -  Hello My Name is Doris
Beckinsale - Love & Friendship
Winslet - the Dressmaker
But the Globes can surprise. What about...
Huppert -Elle
Sarandon - The Meddler
Zellweger - Bridget Jones's Baby 
anyone else? 

New Best Actress Oscar Prediction Chart. What'cha think?

Red Carpet: TIFF Finally Does Couture

Jose here. Color me impressed with all the couture at Toronto this year! Congrats to stylists for bringing it, and when there are so many great looks to discuss, let's get to it. Amy Adams is the epitome of "if it ain't broke", she has rarely looked sexier than she does in this simple Tom Ford design. Her Rita Hayworth-esque locks and the perfect earrings might just make this her best look in years. No one can pull off as many shades of yellow as Emma Stone as proved by this textured Chanel minidress, which sees her at her most playful. Rooney Mara wearing color warms my heart, especially when it's such bold pieces as this Aouadi bolero dress, knowing the unique design was more than enough, her makeup and accessories are minimal, love that the strappy sandals make it look as if she's floating. Lupita Nyong'o in Carolina Herrera is the thing fashion photographers dream about, gotta love her red lipstick too. Can she do any wrong? The answer is no.

More looks after the jump. 

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Red Carpet: Venice, Toronto and Kruger (Oh, My!)

Jose here. I'm glad to report that as the temperatures come down, slightly, so do the hemlines, which means it's red carpet season! <3 So let's get down to business! First up in Venice we have Eva Herzigova in a sheer, but elegant, Alberta Ferreti. The Italian designer's bold work usually pops up in Venetian red carpets and Herzigova's simple styling make us think she's equally ready for a fancy cocktail party, as she is for lounging poolside. Next up the divine Emma Stone in Atelier Versace, who more and more seems to be paying homage to red carpet goddess Nicole Kidman and you won't hear me complain about that.

European red carpets tend to be more playful which is why it's no surprise to see Chiara Mastroianni in this androgynous suit from Gucci, the smoky makeup and severe hair round up one of my favorite looks of the year. Since Amy Adams is in the new Tom Ford movie, she might as well wear what he designs, right? (Also, talk about multitasking Mr. Ford) She's a vision in this sparkling column that seems to have sprung from a Halston wet dream.  More looks after the jump!

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Venice Prizes for La La & Lav

The 73rd annual Venice Film Festival came to a close today and with that comes jury prizes. Here's the list

Lav Diaz new film "The Woman Who Left" is inspired by Tolstoy's book "God Sees the Truth, But Waits". It's four hours long and took the top Venice prize.

Main Competition Jury (Jury President Sam Mendes)
Golden Lion: The Woman Who Left (Lav Diaz)
Grand Jury Prize: Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
Silver Lion (Best Director): [tie] Amat Escalante for The Untamed and Andrei Konchalovsky for Paradise
Volpi Cup Best Actress: Emma Stone for La La Land
Volpi Cup Best Actor: Oscar Martínez for The Distinguished Citizen
Mastroianni Award for Best Young Actor: Paula Beer for Frantz 

A FEW NOTES on the winners after the jump...

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Best Acting. New Oscar Predictions

Having just taken a trip back to 1984 for the Smackdown and memory sufficiently jogged about how dense the acting branch can sometimes be (the discernment skills vary so much annually it can feel like invasion of the AMPAS body snatchers in some calender years) I'm finding myself in the odd position of defending my more extreme hunches from my more cynical side.

Huppert is amazing... and (more importantly) Huppert-esque in ELLEBEST ACTRESS
Whenever you make a call here suggesting that so & so in some non-Oscary film actually has a shot at an acting nomination, people are prone to scoff. But each year's Oscar races have so many intangibles in the acting categories that it's best to keep an open mind. The four acting categories are arguably the categories that are least beholden to the actual movies since a famous actor doesn't need a strong picture to generate buzz nor do they (in some cases) even need for people to actually like their movie they're in or, in fact, see it. And then you have the vaguely opposite case where a particular movie, whether or not people actually warm to it as a whole, can remind the world how fabulous a particular actor or actress always has been...

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