First Best Actress Predictions of the New Oscar Year

"Are you actress psychic?" It's a question I've often asked in conjunction with prediction contests. I'm still working out details as to what we'll do for an Oscar contest this year but in the meantime I knew I had to wrap up my April Foolish predictions in April which ends... right about now.

To answer my own question I am somewhat Actress Psychic -- as long time readers know -- since my prediction ratio is pretty good early on before we've seen any films. This year I think I dropped the ball, the crystal one that is, not the "ohmygodthis postissoooolate" ball though that one as well. So many potentially interesting leading actress roles and so little in the way of sure things.

Maggie Smith in Quartet (1981) and Maggie Smith in Quartet (2012)

But let's pause for a moment to appreciate the beautiful coincidence should Maggie Smith be nominated as an opera diva in Quartet (2012). much much Oscary more after the jump.

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Cannes: The Usual Suspects

Jose here to discuss the lineup for this year's Cannes Film Festival. I know what I'm about to say isn't "cool" but aren't you tired of Cannes being Oscar's equally traditional but way more highbrow cousin? Why, you ask? During the past decade or so, it's become equally predictable to know what'll be nominated for a Best Picture Oscar and what films will show up in the official Cannes lineup.

You don't believe me?  

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Red Carpet Convo: Glamour Casual, Festival Orgy, Namesake Pets

Nathaniel: It says "Jose is busy. You may be interrupting."
Jose: I'm lying about my status.
Nathaniel: Pants on fire! You are never too busy for fashion. This week's red carpet lineup is kind of scattershot. That's how I feel right now with four festivals seemingly happening simultaneously this week.
Jose: That we know of. Film festivals are the Starbucks of the movie world.
Nathaniel: One for every zip code. 

Nathaniel: So...this first batch is a mix of Deauville (Kate Bosworth, Shirley Maclaine, Emma Stone), Venice (Keira Knightley) and a regular ol' boring premiere somewhere (Marion Cotillard). 
Jose: I recognize the dress so it was NYC.
Nathaniel: See. I'm not even here I've already fled town mentally if not physically... yet.
Jose: I have always wondered how movie stars lose their baby fat so freaking fast. What has Marion been eating after petit Marcel was born?
Nathaniel: She's no longer eating for 2 but ‪½ ... actresses, you know.
Jose: Hopefully Guillaume is feeding the wee lad tons of baguettes and souffles but then again said baby isn't the face of Dior and Mommy is.

Nathaniel: Kate Bosworth eats for ‪⅕ so lets start with‬ her. 
Jose: lol. Remind me again, why is she famous for?
Nathaniel: I can't remember... OH the worst Lois Lane. And a surfer movie, I think.
Jose: Oh true. Also for bicolored eyes and for dating Alexander Skarsgård. 
Nathaniel: If you have to live on next to nothing there are worse things to nibble on.
Jose: She's totally doing a Pam face. He should get her a gig on his show.

Nathaniel: I think this dress is kind of pretty but she is soooo tiny and the dress so delicate that it gives the impression that the tiniest gust of wind -- even something as little as the wind currents coming off another speeding luminary passing her on the red carpet -- would all but knock her over.  
Jose: Kate is pretty but god am I bored trying to say something about her.
Nathaniel: So let's talk about Shirley Maclaine. She was there to be honored for her entire career. I think they showed the ballet epic The Turning Point (1977) of all things. This outfit looks appropriate glitzy and shiny and I love Shirley Maclean Beaty but how can she not afford a better wig? 
Jose: lol. Blame her colorist? This totally reminds me of that Sex and the City episode when Samantha follows her ex BF in disguise wearing a wig from the Raquel Welch collection.

The Many (Great) Faces of Shirley Maclaine

Nathaniel: Jose, it needs to be asked. In the cable system of your mind, are Sex & The City repeats running on like 400 of the 1000 stations? 
Jose: No, but Shirley and I both own the DVDs.
Nathaniel: Anyway, she looks really happy and she certainly deserves lifetime achievement plaudits. It's really a wonder to me that more young actresses don't hold her up as an icon. Her career was stellar, longlasting, and full of interesting movies and classic. And there are so many pixie types. But I guess none of them have a personality even remotely as large as hers. Which is maybe the problem. You can be merely elegant and fashionable and pretend you're the next Audrey Hepburn and people will go along with it for 5 minutes but to try Shirley Maclaine...
Jose: Amen. Anne Hathaway maybe when she grows up? 

Nathaniel: So Emma Stone. Stunning again. This color is gahsome on her. But I have to say... I still don't have a bead on her personal style at all. 
Jose: Her style is "Go with the greatest working designers and blow mortals' expectations every single time."
Nathaniel: Way to narrow it down.
Jose: Remember when I complained about Kate Winslet's structural obsession *fashion nerd alert*?
Nathaniel: Yes?
Jose: Well Emma is doing it right. She went with Roland Mouret, known the world over for his love of structure BUT he does structure with delicacy.
Nathaniel: I'm assuming "the world over" meaning "fashion nerd world"?

KEIRA, GWYNETH, "GLAMOUR CASUAL" and JOSE'S DOGGIE (!!!) AFTER THE JUMP.

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Q&A: Hitting the Wall, Moving to France, Dreaming of Sofia

You asked so I'm answering. Not all the weekly questions of course. If I did that I'd be typing for a whole week with only your questions to guide me. I've selected a dozen questions to answer and here they are. 

Tyler: Do you think Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet give good performances in Titanic?
Nathaniel: Hmmm. Define "good". I didn't expect this question to give me pause but it did. I'll try to keep this short. I adore Titanic (1997) and not ironically. I have a certain level of teary devotion to instantly iconic performances like those, to movie-movie performances that maybe aren't nuanced or perfect but serve their movie in a seismic way. I think of Leo's floppy bangs or Kate's fiery curled tresses and I go all mushy inside and have a sudden desire to draw hearts all over notebook folders with a ball point pen. *Ahem*. So, I love Leo & Kate in Titanic, especially as a unit, but I think they both have kind of rough moments in it. (Seriously. That was the best take?). Still, if I'm on the ship and in charge of divvying up the lifeboats, Leo & Kate get one first. Women and children can fend for themselves. " Ladies Movie stars first!"

Kin: Pick a country to live in besides America, but base your reasons only on movies.
Nathaniel: France, bien sûr. Do I even need to explain? It's the birthplace of cinema and the auteur theory, the Eiffel Tower is key to a million famous movie scenes, the French New Wave still fascinates, and the list goes on. Also they have Deneuve so this win be landslide.

Matthew: How do you feel about acclaimed actresses who seemingly play themselves or variations of the same character in every film? I'm thinking of, in particular, Mary-Louise Parker and Zooey Deschanel, among other actresses whose overall versatility leaves something to be desired. Do you think they are deserving of accolades for their overall body of works when compared to say an actress like Kate Winslet or Julianne Moore.
Nathaniel: Many of the most beloved actors of all time did just this, particularly before The Method took over. Cary Grant is genius but always Cary Grant. Mae West wouldn't be Mae West if she wasn't Mae West. And so on. So as long as we like that core person they're playing and they're versatile enough to spin it or smear it or mess with it in small ways a little from role to role, we're good. That said, Mary Louise Parker needs to get the hell off of Weeds.  WHAT IS SHE STILL DOING THAT SHOW FOR? She's calcifying. That is way too long to play the same character when said character is already so close to who you've always played. 

SoSueMe: Which actors have hit a wall creatively and have pretty much shown us all that they can do?
Nathaniel: Ding. Ding. Ding. Other than Mary Louise Parker. I am pretty sure that Johnny Depp has misplaced his entire once-prodigious well of creativity and is on perma-auto-pilot for the past six years.

I worry a little bit about Leonardo DiCaprio, too. I'm willing to be proven wrong in J. Edgar but I absolutely don't believe that directors challenge or control him enough. He's so talented but I think his career has been too easy for him. If you never have to struggle -- and his struggling ended abruptly when he was only 23 --  don't you lose the hunger that leads people to ravenously attack their role as if this is the one, the best chance to prove their gift? His performances feel too samey and not just because of the furrowed brow and The Dead Wives Club. But when he's "on" he's really something (see The Departed, key passages in The Aviator and ⅔ of his pre Titanic output.)

Manuel: IF Winona Ryder was not burned out at the time and did The Godfather III, do you think the movie would have been better with her?

my answers and the Question(s) of the week after the jump

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Yes, No, Maybe So: Contagion

In this edition of Let's Count the Oscar Winners, err, Yes, No, Maybe So, we take a look at Steven Soderbergh's Contagion. Details of this film had been kept quite secret until this trailer was released a few days ago. I'd seen snippets from the film at a distributors event a few months ago but they highlighted star wattage over plot. So now the trailer has arrived and in a move that has some condemning Soderbergh for spoiling his own film, he pulls off a Game of Thrones seconds into the trailer (at the bottom of the post)

YES - That cast!

All of them either have Oscars or have been nominated on multiple occasions but the best part is that they're not just "movie stars", they're all incredible actors. Is this like the "serious version" of Ocean's 11? Soderbergh gets bonus points for that The Talented Mr. Ripley reunion, but where is Cate when you need her?

NO - How can Steven Soderbergh deliver such a superb trailer and threaten us with early retirement? Also, considering he has developed a tradition of delivering one artsy film followed by a fun one, which one is this? His last movie was a documentary, so does it count or should we use The Informant as reference? The director has a tendency to work with genre and this looks like it could be his take on the psychological film or the disaster movie (I smell a fun double bill with Melancholia!)

Soderbergh is also one of the most ambitious directors in contemporary history. Most of the time he gets away with whatever he wants, but given the political references spotted in this trailer this could either be brilliant or end up turning into a bland piece of meh like Blindness.

MAYBE SO - With the revelation that Gwyneth Paltrow's character dies, we have to ask ourselves, how much will this affect the rest of the film? Some people have already called this a monstrous spoiler and are pissed at the director for letting this piece of information come out.

 PSA: Gwyneth Paltrow in The Perils of Gambling!

Killing one of your main stars isn't something completely new but it still sends waves of how-dare-they and where-are-we-going-now terror among audiences who want it the easy way. This revelation tells us that either her character was meaningless and there are bigger shocks to come or that Soderbergh is the kind of director you want to work with so badly that you don't care if he kills you before the movie is even released. 

I for one am beyond excited to see what he has up his sleeve this time. How about you? Are you as impressed by the cast? Should Soderbergh retire yet?