They're Here. The 83rd Oscar Nominations

The Day has arrived, capitals and bold intended.

I'm updated the OSCAR NOMINATION INDEX  so you can look at everything as a complete chart and also see how I did prediction wise. Or you can open up this post to check out the entire list of nominees.

The most interesting responses in terms of nomination levels have to be Black Swan and Inception, neither of which hit Oscar's sweet spot in quite the nomination tally levels people generally expected. Inception missed in director which MUST give Nolan some kind of snub record since he's now been nominated by the DGA three times. Black Swan missed in art direction and sound and costumes all of which, one thinks, should have maybe been givens.

When in doubt remember -- I also forgot -- that Oscar resists genre films when they have traditional drama to nominate instead (The King's Speech)

Complete list of nominees after the jump or you can just see the big chart.

Click to read more ...

Top of the Oscar Morn' To Ya

7:43 AM Today's the day we find out what those 6,000 showbiz people were thinking as they filled out there ballots. Or even if they were thinking. I suddenly want to chuck out all my predictions and start over again. Oh jitters.

7:47 AM  I'm so nervous. 45 minutes whoooot

MO'NIQUE BABY

Mo'Nique laughs at a flubbed line

7:58 Who is awake? show of hands!

8:18 Okay, now I am showered, coffeed, fully dressed, if not quite mentally prepared for What Lies Ahead. The great unknown. Or maybe the known if they just follow the precursors this year. I'm suddenly feeling Sam Rockwell (?) and wishing i hadn't predicted a Kunis snub.

8:28 I don't think i've ever watched The Early Show but they only had it in them (the anchors) for crossing their fingers for The Social Network and The King's Speech. What imaginative calls! Clearly the female anchor doesn't go to the movies she made a convenient "i'm still watching. i can't say" comment which means I officially shun her. That'll show her.

will Gosling & Williams both make it?

8:33 Ugh. I hate Ben Lyons so much. Switched to E! and he's talking about the Academy "FINALLY getting younger." Maybe he doesn't know that the age statistics remain about the same all the time with the acting nominations. They like the women young, the men middle aged. That's always the way it's been and they way it'll stay. As we've discussed many a time. The only way this year is "younger" is the hosts and IF eisenberg, franco and gosling are all nominated in lead actor. That would definitely be a young Best Actor lineup even with Firth & Bridges involved.

8:34 "some movies you feel" they will not stop with these King's Speech commercials.

adams, bonhamcarter, leo, steinfeld, weaver -SUPPORTING

bale, hawkes, renner, ruffalo, rush SUPPORTING ACTOR

bening, kidman, lawrence, portman, williams ACTRESS

bardem, bridges, eisenberg, firth, franco ACTOR

aronofsky, russell, fincher, coen bros, hooper DIRECTOR (wow. 3rd DGA nom 3rd Oscar snub for Chris Nolan)

another year, fighter, inception, kids are all right, kings speech SCREENPLAY

127 hours, social network, toy story 3, true grit, winter's bone ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

biutiful, dogtooth, in a better world, incendies, outside the law FOREIGN

how to train, illusionist, toy story 3 ANIMATED

black swan, the fighter, inception, the kid are all right, the kings speech, 127 hours, the social network, toy story 3, true grit, winter's bone PICTURE

COMPLETE NOMINATION LIST

Sad News and My Ballot For Best Costumes

First, the very sad news. If you've been reading the past couple of days you probably saw the "visual category film bitch nominations". While adjusting coding today, to finalize the page, I accidentally somehow  erased the entire page. I've lost four categories worth of published nominees and writeups (animated film, visual effects, makeup, and editing) as well as preliminary stuff that wasn't published. I can't seem to find a cached url that will display it -- i'm not sure it would display now in anyone else's "history" or cached pages?  I am d-e-p-r-e-s-s-e-d. That was probably eight hours of work and there are no extra minutes this time of year. Let this be a lesson to everyone: never keep your files only in one place. I'm not even sure i'll remember what I nominated or wrote. It may take me much longer and post-oscar noms to do this now. I always complete the Film Bitch Awards in the traditional categories before the Oscar nominations but this looks like the year where tradition might finally die. Sniffle. Blotchy tears will short circuit my keyboard now.

But there's no sense in not posting what I'd already written about costumes. But IF you think your computer will display a cached version of the visual nominations page don't click on this new version ;) and try it and email me a pdf or something.

Just for the hell of it, for example's sake, I want to talk about two costumes pictured below (I chose them at random) in the absurd hope that a few of you out there will reveal a previously hidden obsessive love of costume design. I want to create a series devoted to it but I need to know you're out there first.

Amy Westcott and Mary Zophres done good.

What can costumes tell us about characters? Quite a lot. Amy Westcott (Black Swan) and Mary Zophres (True Grit) will probably be Oscar nominated tomorrow, each for the first time, and I've also nominated them. Westcott is undoubtedly benefiting from Rodarte's "Swan Lake" ballet costumes (Rodarte can't be nominated with her due to contractual issues) but her own work is very fine, too. Maybe Westcott wouldn't be nominated without the Rodarte bells and whistles but that says more about the Academy's resistance to contemporary character costuming than about the quality of her work.

The color coding of all of these similarly dark and vaguely possessed women is delicious, just subtle muted variations (blacks, greys, white, pinks, etcetera) since they're distorted reflections of each other. Isn't it perfect with a capital P that Winona Ryder's evening wear on the night she's thrown in the trash heap --  excuse me, retiring --  is basically a big silver "X" . She's a goner.

Over in True Grit Mattie's clothes don't quite fit her (amusing smart choice) and Rooster's look like they desperately need to be laundered but isn't it perfect that LaBoeuf's outfits look so new and fastidious and that they're fringed. His pride takes a beating in the film but he's wearing it, you know? He cares about how he looks.

MY NOMINEES IN COSTUME
alas none of the other visual categories that have vanished like tears in the rain

Would you like to see a recurring series on costume design in 2011?

Final Oscar Predictions & Questions

Yes, they'll have reason to celebrateWe're getting down to the wire now and doesn't it seem more confusing now that it did a month ago? So strange. The pink elephant in the room might be that the precursors were so entirely uniform that it should be easy to predict. Yet, could it really be so simple as these 11 films showing up everywhere as they have for months

• 127 Hours
• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The Kids Are All Right
• The King's Speech
• The Social Network
• The Town
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit
• Winter's Bone

Does this mean we're due for surprises on Tuesday or is it just a year where everyone agrees? Last year, for example, when the prospects of Nine, The Lovely Bones and Invictus suddenly crashed in January wasn't it just a case of people not liking the movies despite their general precursor strength. Is there any film, for example amoung The Big 11 this year that people dislike? The answer is an exclamatory "NO!". Oh sure, nearly all of those films have detractors (as every film has throughout history) but there isn't a film in that group that has people in large numbers going "zzzzz" or "what a piece of shit" or "whatever. NEXT!" like we had last year when District 9 and The Blind Side muscled there way in instead.

Take a cold shower Shutter Island. Tone down those Oscar dreams.

This general strength is probably bad news for any film that would in other years maybe rally for a surprise nomination. But the way I see it there are six more films hanging around that might show up (at this point unexpectedly) in major places IF it's a surprising morning.

• The Ghost Writer (I'm guessing two surprise nods: score & screenplay. But I really don't think Picture/Director is entirely improbable.)
• Shutter Island  (I'm guessing two: sound mixing and art direction but a few more seem possible)
• Another Year (I'm guessing a shutout. Quote Ruth Sheen as Gerry in the film: "Life's not always kind is it?" Yet it could have as many as 3 nominations if Life is Sweet instead.
• Eyesore in Wonderland (I'm guessing the obvious ones like art direction, costumes, makeup, f/x which is 4 too many already and hoping there's not more. But it stands a very good chance of being the non-best picture nominee with the highest total. Life's not always kind, is it?)
• The Way Back (I suspect a shut out but it's a big handsome period epic and you never know...)
• Blue Valentine (i'm guessing 2 nominations. But what if it's 4? both actors & best picture.)

YOU CAN SEE THE BIG CHART HERE with links to each category
But for now just a few big question marks. I'd love your take on these things.

Best Picture
The general perception is that Winter's Bone, The Town or 127 Hours will be the snubee of the 11 constants. I really think Winter's Bone is safe though I couldn't exactly say why i have such certainty. I still worry a bit about The Kids Are All Right as a surprise snub (I blame the BFCA for the worry) but it's probably just jitters since I love the film. Since there are so many "auteur" films expected to place I'm guessing The Town edges out 127 Hours, since there's less competition for those mainstream votes. That isn't a knock on The Town just a reflection that it's not really in the list because it's daring or edgy or acclaimed. It's hung on because it's a solid general audience entertainment that is also critically respected.

Best Director
The big question mark here is whether it'll be The Coen Bros or David O. Russell in the final shortlist. I'm guessing that Russell hangs on. That's partially because I think The Fighter generates such love from its fans and partially because I think there's bound to be another fluke year where the Globes, DGA and Oscar all line up (hasn't happened since 1977.) BUT if you ask me what I really want to predict it's Roman Polanski. The only thing preventing me from that "no guts no glory" leap is that I have more trouble imagining The Ghost Writer placing in Best Picture than I do Polanski shaking up best director. With 10 Picture nominees it's harder to imagine the director's branch going way out on a limb like they use to.

I'm guessing "No" on Gosling (sniffle)Best Actor and Supporting Actor
I've made a switch in Lead Actor. I've got to take a risk somewhere and I'm now predicting Javier Bardem will edge out Robert Duvall for the 5th spot. People who see that movie just don't shut up about his work and he's a well regarded actor who is maybe in some ways, the new Anthony Quinn (Spanish speaking masculine heartthrob that Oscar just can't get enough of). Or maybe that's just because they look vaguely similar to me. But then again, Bardem missed for The Sea Inside so...).  I'd love to see Ryan Gosling in the mix, as he's on my ballot, but I really doubt it will happen. And I fear that if he manages to squeak it would mean a surprise snub for Jesse Eisenberg who, regardless of the buzz and media attention, is quite young and who is playing a largely unlikeable character.

Best Actress and Supporting Actress
The huge dilemma here is Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit. Whichever category she shows up in ... [I still firmly believe it'll be supporting because the only previous examples of "promotion" are when the actor in question is already famous or has no co-leads in their film and voters feel silly about claiming that the actress is supporting a Whale or some such]... she WILL pull votes in both categories. Which means less votes for other people which means all sorts of surprise pockets of love and vacuums of votes could factor in. Same goes to a much lesser extent with Lesley Manville. The happiest outcome Hailee-wise would be a snub in both categories. Because, whoever she kicks out in either category, including Manville is her superior. (I'm not trying to be mean. She's just not the equal of her competitors. Not yet at least. She'll have other chances as one assumes she'll be in Chloe Moretz style demand now.) If she places in lead I see it costing Nicole Kidman the nomination since Rabbit Hole barely got a second glance from anyone... not even for its excellent screenplay which should've been kind of an easy get I think.

The Actress races are SO tense. Can you bear it??? Well, can you?

That said, I wouldn't be too surprised if I'm majorly wrong on Best Supporting Actress. I've reinstated Jacki Weaver because fans of her work are so passionate (#1 votes) and because I think Barbara Hershey (who I think is more of a threat than people realize and BAFTA gave me faith that I wasn't entirely wrong) will be pulling more votes from Mila Kunis than from Weaver) though I fear she's the new Peter Sarsgaard Shattered Glass (i.e. the critical darling that shows up everywhere until the Oscar). The huge difference is that Weaver is in an excellent film. But the strange thing there is that it just hasn't won traction elsewhere. So like Nicole Kidman, the relative lack of interest in her film, which ought to have been a bigger deal, could spell doom. I'M SO NERVOUS.

SEE ALL THE PREDIX HERE and we'll see how it goes on Tuesday morning.

The Ghost Linker

Filmmaker Magazine a brief video interview with Miranda July (Me and You and Everyone We Know) on her new project about a couple adopting a cat. EEEEeeee. Adopting a cat sounds like an EPIC story for a movie*. I cannot wait to see this.
Movie|Line Oscar buzz for Martha Marcy May Marlene (2011) at Sundance. Hey, lots of Oscar hopefuls kick off there. Here's to next year!
In Contention Guy Lodge's dream Oscar ballot. Other than Oscar, I *so* prefer to read people's individual ballots than see group choices.
The Wrap Like Crazy a romantic drama starring Anton Yelchin and Felicity Jones sells big at Sundance. Hmmm. Could mean big things for both leads.
Inside TV What the hell is going on with Mad Men? I'm so nervous. Give us that fifth season. With Matthew Weiner.

Ghost Writer keeps showing up in European Awards . Could surprise Oscar noms await?

Finally as much as I lie to myself and pretend that each day has 57 hours in it, I need to face facts that there will never be enough time to do a whole post on the Asian Film Award Nominations or France's Cesar Nominations because they're happening during my own awards (which are running much later than usual -- it was building this damn website!) AND just a few days prior to Oscars. I love movie awards so much but I do so wish the calendars were spread out. Let it suffice to say for now that Of Gods and Men and The Ghost Writer did very well with the Cesars and South Korea's Poetry (which I've already raved about), Japan's Confessions (an Oscar finalist) and Thailand's Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (already snubbed by Oscar) did well with the Asian awards nominations.

*It sounds like that to me because I am a crazy cat lady.