Oscar Charts: Will we have a "double" again in Best Supporting Actress?

by Nathaniel R

Ann Dowd and Martha Plimpton star in "Mass"

We may have gotten a little carried away with wishful thinking in (some) of our Supporting Actress chart building this time around. You see, so many actresses we love that have never or only once been in the Oscar race have what sound like amazing parts this year. But it's early enough in the year that optimistic guesses are as good as pessimistic guesses. At least that's true in the supporting categories where less is usually known this early about the roles themselves.

But what we found most interesting while thinking through the first predictions of the year was how many films have the potential for a double nomination in Best Supporting Actress...

Click to read more ...

Yes No Maybe So: "House of Gucci"

by Nathaniel R

"Father... Son.... and House of Gucci" If the trailer is any indication, people are going to be obsessing on or quoting House of Gucci frequently in the coming months. So let's go immediately to our Yes No Maybe So™ routine, but in the more expansive second-by-second way we do occassionally when we're really excited...

Click to read more ...

Oscar Charts: Will "Best Actor" be Peter Dinklage vs Will Smith?

by Nathaniel R

Peter Dinklage in the 2019 stage production of Cyrano. Photo from Jeenah Moon for the New York Times

Jose Ferrer won the Oscar playing Cyrano de Bergerac (1950) and forty years later French movie star Gérard Depardieu was nominated for the same role. Thirty-one years later will Peter Dinklage prove lucky number three while having a go at the classic big-nosed role? About that big-nose, though. In the pre-COVID stage run, the production got people talking partially because it made significat alterations to the material, the most visible of which was the lack of that infamous nose. The thinking was that we all have things that make us insecure so the world-famous nose might be a stand-in for anything.

The other major alteration was that it was a musical with songs by The National. What will Joe Wright make of all this for the big screen?

Click to read more ...

Oscar Prediction Charts: Three questions about Best Supporting Actor

by Nathaniel R

We're not predicting Richard E Grant Oscar buzz for the drag musical Everybody's Talking About Jamie but we're sharing his picture because we're in this kind of cheerful mood and because he was ROBBED in his Oscar year and we've been fans for as long as we can remember. Wasn't he fun on Loki this month? 

The supporting categories at the Oscars are always hard to read this early. Supporting roles are rarely the focus of pre-release buzz. What's more they can have a tough time finding awards love since leading movie stars have a super gross and predictable way of constantly crashing the party for those lower on the call sheet (last year's "supporting" race arguably had just one 100% no debate supporting player). So we threw one lead into the predictions (Jesse Plemons in Power of the Dog) but it's more than likely that some other lead will be pitched here, too. We don't care to guess about who that will be right now. For first attempt at predicting nominations in this category for 2021 we're saying...

Click to read more ...

Oscar Chart Updates: Picture, Director, Screenplay, and more...

Jane Campion's new film Power of the Dog has been named the Centerpiece for the New York Film Festival. Perhaps it's wishful thinking (we've loved Campion forever) but we're betting big on it for the Oscar race. The film is set in 1920s rural Montana and stars Benedict Cumberbatch and Jesse Plemons as brothers who are at odds. The rift between them grows wider once the younger brother brings a new wife (Kirsten Dunst) home. The novel by Thomas Savage has been compared to works like East of Eden and Brokeback Mountain and if the film can live up to either of those classics' screen adaptations it will be something special.

We've been working hard on the first Oscar charts of the year.  The four acting categories and international film have yet to be posted, but the rest of the charts are now up...

• PICTURE - Will streamers like Netflix or Amazon prevail or will more traditional distributors like MGM/UA, Searchlight, Focus, A24, and SPC rise up? So many films sound exciting but we won't know which deliver on their promise until later in the year.  
• DIRECTOR - Jane Campion could become the first woman ever nominated twice in Best Director
• SCREENPLAYS  - Numerous brilliant writers have new films coming but however will they choose between Asghar Farhadi, Joel Coen, Tony Kushner, Pedro Almodóvar, Mike Mills, and Paul Thomas Anderson?
• VISUAL CATEGORIES - There's (presumably) eye candy aplenty in Dune, Last Night in Soho, House of Gucci, and Nightmare Alley
• SOUND CATEGORIES - Can it finally be Nicholas Britell's year or will he split his support with three movies (Carmen, Don't Look Up, Cruella)?
• ANIMATED FEATURE - Will Disney's musical Encanto be the frontrunner? Will Flee and Belle be the more adventurous citations?
• PREDICTION INDEX - the overview snapshot