Oscar Chart Updates: The Acting Races !
Friday, July 22, 2016 at 5:15PM The July Oscar prediction chart updates are complete! You're welcome. Each chart has been updated (but for foreign film but we start building the submission tables now). With the acting charts newly updated you'll see new predictions we're trying on for size (Jessica Sloane for Miss Sloane and Naomie Harris for Moonlight) and significant chart gains for the casts of three pictures (which affects the supporting actor chart most) Love and Friendship, Loving and Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk.
Will they be contenders? Who knows.
Here are some questions TFE is asking its Oscar Crystal Ball. Care to answer them in the comments?
• Which sci-fi picture is more likely to be garner acting praise: Passengers with Jennifer Lawrence or Arrival with Amy Adams? Or neither since sci-fi pictures are rarely regarded, right or wrong, as "actor's pictures"?
• Do you think Love & Friendship can muster up an acting campaign to capitalize on its sleeper arthouse hit status?
• Why is buzz around Martin Scorsese's Silence so quiet and does this mean anything for its formidable male actors?
• Will Fences be seen as just the Viola & Denzel show or will it be a force in Supporting Actor? And can Denzel win a third Oscar, tying Daniel Day Lewis, Walter Brennan, and Jack Nicholson?
• Can Sony Pictures Classics make a critical cause of or controversy 'must-see' event out of Paul Verhoeven & Isabelle Huppert's pairing in Elle?
• When will filmmakers quit wasting Oscar caliber actresses as "concerned wife on phone" and "inquisitive wife at kitchen table"? (Actually this last one is rhetorical. No need to answer lest we all weep.)
NEW CHARTS
INDEX | PIC | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS
SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS
SCREENPLAYS | VISUALS | AURALS | ANIMATION & DOCS
Reader Comments (58)
No one in any of the films released so far will be nominated. The months of January to August basically don't exist for the Academy. Look at last year's nominees
I so, so, so badly want you to be right about Steve Martin finally getting a nomination.
Looking at the best actor list I'm surprised Cliff Curtis isn't on this list, for his mesmerizing performance in "The Dark Horse" other Oscar sites have him on their long shot list
OMG I am so here for a Kate Beckinsale nomination. Such a longshot, but how cool would that be?! She was amazing in Love & Friendship.
Given how terrible the trailer is and what a fan you are, WISHFUL THINKING? should certainly be in front of Warren Beatty's name, Nat.
I'm incredibly excited for ARRIVAL, but Villeneuve makes movies that are tough for consensus voting, so I'm curious if this will be a change for that.
I'm also curious about L&F because I could see it doing well if Roadside is pushing it, but the Amazon thing is kind of confusing. Does Amazon campaign for their movies or the partner distributors? I can't remember how CHI-RAQ was handled last year...
19 nominations for Streep. You currently have her at 20. Washington has 6 nominations and you have him at none. Nothing wishful about Bening's Mike Mills vehicle being a contender for her. Taraji P Henson is a factor this year for Hidden Figures with a late December qualifying run.
Suzanne: I just saw it and WOW. That's Ghostbusters 2016 level bad trailer.
Suzanne -- i direct your attention to TRUMBO which was terrible and which award bodies thought was good. They have blind spots and all star costume dramas about Hollywood are among those ;)
/3rtful - thanks for checking my chart but I did not have Denzel at zero, i merely left it blank and forgot to go back and fix.
David -- i've given up keeping track of that one. They were pushing him last November for a qualifying run (perhaps they cancelled it?) so I assumed he'd already had that and it didn't work out.
Ken s -- that's true sometimes, sure. But we maintain hope each year that some early bird will make it and sometimes they do. I dont want to contribute to the problem by pretending none of them have any shot whatsoever because they do. It's all a matter of campaigning and it's too early to know if anyone from the year's first months will be pushed hard enough in November-January when all the campaigning is happening.
I've read the book, The Silence, and as I recall it was pretty grim.
It has some tricky issues. Catholic missionaries were expelled from Japan, and if they would not voluntarily go, were caught, tortured, and killed. Reverberations of Japanese WWII atrocities.
In Japanese history, the Japanese point out that the Phillipines, a country to the south, welcomed the Spanish missionaries, who softened that country up for the invasion of the Spanish military, who took over the country and made the local people less than citizens.
Japan the closed itself off from the rest of the world for 250 years, only to be forcibly "opened" by US war ships.
So we've got Brexit (closing a country off), xenophobia and killing those of a foreign religion who are considered to be threatening. Also, the missionaries were not really saintly good guys. They had no respect for Japanese wish for self government and maintenance of their own culture. Everyone in this situation showed their worst side.
About Billy Lynn's Joe Alywn, when was the last time a complete unknown got a nomination for best actor? Matt Damon? But he also co-wrote Good Will Hunting.
I can totally see Love and Friendship getting acting notices if it shows up at the major precursors. It's the type of films they've rewarded in the past.
The acting for Loving, Ruth Negga aside, seemed muted though out of Cannes. Unless the Academy embraces the film in a big way. I am still not sold on Jeff Nichols in general though. While he's a competent filmmaker and storyteller I think he's still yet to hit his stride.
Oh by the way you still have Zookeeper's wife's description under Chastain's picture! Also from what I heard, Krisha probably isn't eligible, and the film actually showed up in last year's ISA.
But Miss Sloane isn't about zoos (Nike Caro's film is), it's about gun control.
I guess I'm still bitter about last year and the total shutout of Clouds of Sils Maria, Mr Holmes, Far from the Madding Crowd, Love and Mercy, Black Mass and Crimson Peak, for starters. (I even had my hopes up for Tangerine getting something, silly me). But I don't see anything, except for maybe The Lobster, that has the critics all in a tizzy, such as Mad Max: Fury Road last year, that can translate into a critical juggernaut come December. Even Kristen Stewart's plethora of critical awards made no mark on those attention-span-deficient lunkheads.
I always love looking over these charts, so many hopes, wishes, and dreams...
This is the happiest time when almost anything seems possible.
My two cents:
I would probably raise Nicole Kidman up a level, word is Harvey is betting on Lion and he was quoted in THR complimenting her performance.
I too am hopeful for The Benning, "Beginners" gave us that lovely Christopher Plummer performance and win.
Here's hoping you're right about Naomie Harris - I would love to see her get some well earned attention for her abundant talent.
Love that you're going to bat for Love & Friendship. It would be amazing to see it go all the way to the Oscars. Let's hope they're willing to go for it with a campaign.
That Isabelle Huppert thing will not happen. Hot topic and no American actress wanted to be in Elle.
" Why is buzz around Martin Scorsese's Silence so quiet and does this mean anything for its formidable male actors?"
THANK YOU!!! :) I'm not the only one who ask himself about that.
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Who a like to see nominated:
L. Actor: Denzel, Parker, Garfield, Affleck (!!!!!), Mortensen or Alwyn.
L. Actress: Viola, Adams (Arrival), Stone, Pfeiffer (!!!!!!!!!!!!), Huppert or Sonia Braga.
S. Actor: Neeson, Diesel, Grant (!!!), Hammer, Hedges or Chandler.
S. Actress: Williams, Stewart, Harris (for any), Winslet (luv her! that's why), Weisz or Lupita or Robbie (Suicede Squad).
Yeah that Warren Beatty performance/movie looks like it's gunning for SAG recognition in 2015.
Not feeling anything for American Pastoral? I know Ewan hasn't directed before but could be a potential player. Dakota Fanning would be my wild card for Supporting Actress.
Nat, I would not discount Little Men. I know it seems very small but I can absolutely see Greg Kinnear being nominated for best supporting actor. It's very much an ensemble film but he is the most famous of the bunch (by a significant margin - Alfred Molina's role is a cameo) and his performance is what that supporting actor oscar dreams are made of. Understated, three dimensional, fatherly, almost lead.
Stephen Frears is a good luck charm for the actresses in his films. His films boast a long list of actors Oscar-nominated for their performances. I wouldn't count Meryl Streep out - She's probably a lock for a nomination.
I'm surprised you have Arrival and La La Land in so strongly, but they don't make the cut in Actress. Could easily see these two taking out Bening and Chastain... or Arrival underperforming everywhere. It doesn't sound like a sure fire Oscar movie to me, and Adams' sixth nod would scream for a win.
Denzel could totally win three. I expect it will be all about the performances though. I could see Pic, Actor, Actress and almost nothing else.
I have a strong feeling Edgerton will miss but Loving will do better elsewhere. He was the only thing in the trailer that seemed off. Not a good sign for him.
I feel like Supporting Actress has to go to Stewart or Williams. So much momentum for both.
Bennett would be fun but I don't expect more than a Screenplay nod for L&F. (Well, fine, Costumes/Hair & Make-Up.)
It would be great to see Naomi Harris in the conversation; she is lovely. Hopefully she also has a decent role in Collateral Beauty - she deserves better than her miniscule roles in the Bond films.
Does Amy Adams have a supporting role in anything? We're 2/3 of the way to a 2005 Adams-Weisz-Williams rematch.
I liked Florence Foster Jenkins quite a bit, but if Meryl gets a nod for it'll only because it's Meryl and the voters can't of any other names when completing their ballot.
Harvey seems to be massively unsure about what he's got this year, boasting that his films open all year then shifting Founder to traditional December slot. Bombastic claims about Lion, all shadows and mirrors.
IMO Florence is a lesser Streep performance. Not surprised if she gets a GG nom, but no way an Oscar.
Yay for Harris, Negga,and Mortenson on your lists. Haven't seen their films yet but they are superb actors. (FYI--I know FTE isn't a big fan of Alec Baldwin, but he did a really nice interview with Viggo.).
Oops. Naomie Harris isn't on your list, but I still like her.
I think this is the year is were we start realising Streep is probably doing these sort of Dench type comedies for a bit now and leaving Oscar bait until she finds a great role worthy of a 4th Oscar win.
Our current Best Actress predictions are almost identical except I have Emma Stone instead of Streep.
That Isabelle Huppert thing will not happen. Hot topic and no American actress wanted to be in Elle.
Huppert definitely has a chance at a nomination. Her distributor is Sony Classics and like Rampling last year she's overdue for a career nomination. American actresses being uncomfortable with material handled by a European provocateur is a meaningless aside.
Katey Sagal is the perfect physical combination in that wig of Huston in 50/50 and Leo in The Fighter. If Bleed for This is a contender I hope she gets the offers afterwards to have a late blooming film career. She said film is what she wants to penetrate.
Free Emily Blunt from the NeverOscarNominated prison.
adri - How dare you even mention Brexit when talking about The Silence. The two situations are completely different. There are many reasons why Britain voted to leave the EU, which aren't talked about in the media. My country will not be closed off, we will be looking outside the EU and making bonds with the rest of the world.
PS. I'm visiting Luxembourg next week, my 20th European country. I absolutely love Europe, I just hate the corrupt and undemocratic EU behemoth.
Olivia Colman in The Lobster for Best Supporting Actress
She may be a long shot but she deserves the attention more than most.
I don't see Streep's nom happening. It is a very broad performance and I just can't imagine anybody talking about it long enough. Golden Globe nominations for her and Grant though, easy. Perhaps even a win for Grant.
@RobMiles: I sincerely apologize for my ignorance on the complex subject that is Brexit. I hope for the best for all involved. I realize that as my understanding gets a little better, I will probably hang my head in shame at how ignorant I was. Again, my apologies.
Team Kate Beckinsale here
"Hot topic and no American actress wanted to be in Elle"
It's funny that the same American actresses complain about the lack of meaty roles........
Pity that a fun discussion of Oscar hopefuls on this level-headed site descended into someone self-righteously shouting "how dare you" to another person about Brexit, causing said other person to hang their "head in shame." Boo for bullying. :/
Manuel -- right? This reminds me of a ton of A listers turning down Basic Instinct (this isn't the first time Verhoeven has had that problem. It's not even the second time) and yet the actresses who finally sign on generally get important films in their filmography.
@Nathaniel R
Stop pretending the scripts for Basic Instinct and Showgirls are gold for an A-list actress with range. Stone and Gershon are B-list who comprehend heighten stylization of exploitation material under the direction of a madman.
I think FFJ sounds like a good meaty fun role for Meryl. I had no idea that person actually existed. I can see why she took it. Even for actresses her range it gets troubled getting good leading roles over 60. Most of them are comedies. Nothing wrong with it, as long as they can work.
"No American actress wanted to be in Elle."
As I understand it, the development issues had more to do with American audiences (why develop/gamble this as an American story if we're not "ready" for it?) than with American actresses. Diane Lane, Sharon Stone, Nicole Kidman, etc. were all considered for the part—it's not like those are women who shy away from provocative material.
American actresses DO need meatier stories. I'm sort of appalled that your line of argument says this is somehow their fault. You make it sound like actresses connecting or not connecting with certain material is mutually exclusive from them deserving more variety and edge in what they do.
"Diane Lane didn't want to do this rape revenge movie. Therefore American actresses are prudes and they can't have nice things" is a rather pathetic leap to make.
/3rtful -- i'm not pretending anything. Stone and Gershon were only B-list under genre bias attitudes that don't understand that actresses that are capable of stylization for strange or outre or auteur vessel roles have A list talents. I'm sick of genre actors not getting their due. There are so many actresses that are considered "good" that aren't as good as some of them. For instance: Halle Berry... who can';t do stylization to save her life.
Can Meryl Streep do the type of stylization that propelled the likes of Stone, Gershon, Bates, and Huston?
Despite being an award winning actress Berry is rarely thought of as good.
Streep is a lock for her 20th nomination...we know the performance has been getting raves and is light in the same way as her Julia Child....most of these other predictions are still sight unseen ...
Her Julia Child was win worthy.
With the new Academy rules (and members), Oscar perennials, like Meryl, might not be as oft-nominated as they once were.
I've just read Silence, too. Garfield plays the lead and Neeson may have only two scenes, but you can a expect a nomination like the one William Hurt had in A History of Violence. If Marty pulls it off, it's gonna be incredible.
If they go by the book, there is a KILLER role for a Japanese actor. Watch out for Yosuke Kobuzuka. I've never heard of him, but he's gonna play Kichijiro, a tragic figure that almost steals the book. I really hope this guy do justice to the role.
I've seen Elle last month in France, where it already opened.
Let me tell you: Huppert is not happening in a million years.
Uncomfortable doesn't even start to describe this movie and the performance is unapologetically sarcastic in every single scene.
Huppert is abravise, funny, cruel and brutal. Not heartwarming material like Rampling last year.
Imagining this at Oscars is like expecting a Faye Dunaway in Network happening again (she's this good), but with a foreign actress that is not huge in Hollywood in an extremely controversial movie spoken in French.
Forget it.
It seems the Best Actor race will include two black actors (with Washington maybe standing a chance of a third win!). Same thing for the Best Actress category. What's more; it looks like the two leading contenders will be black: Davis and Negga!