All Oscar Charts Updated: "The Favourite" and "Black Panther" Rising
Thursday, November 22, 2018 at 11:36PM As a special Thanksgiving gift to all of you, we've updated all the Oscar charts.
The Favourite In theaters tomorrow! DO NOT MISS IT.
BEST PICTURE
The box office this weekend and so many openings and/or guild screenings this week (Roma and The Favourite both in limited release, Green Book going wide, Vice and Mary Poppins and Mary Queen of Scots screenings) etcetera will likely disrupt this chart, as will the impending NYFCC and NBR decisions, but here's what we're thinking right now...
BEST DIRECTOR
I'm trying on a Ryan Coogler nomination to see how it feels. Still undecided. Though I think Black Panther is a lock for Best Picture (don't know why everyone is so worried) the corporate nature of massive franchises might significantly deter the Director's branch. We'll see. But I had to replace Damien Chazelle (who I do still think has a good shot at Director) since I was putting First Man just barely on the outside of the Best Picture list. I don't think First Man is in terrible trouble but it's in some trouble.
Reviews for the picture weren't "Oscariffic" but biopic mimicry and the huge box office might push Rami Malek into the nominee pool
BEST ACTOR
Since Oscar voters and the media both can never get enough of biopic mimicry I've been forced to include both Rami Malek and Christian Bale in the chart. (sigh). I probably won't live to see the end of biopic tyranny over "awards" but it would be my fondest dream if the acting branch started recognizing original creations that felt like whole humans (so much more inspiring!) instead.
BEST ACTRESS
Early mainstream reactions to Widows were not what we were expecting so out goes Viola Davis and in goes Emily Blunt instead back where we had her for the first half of the year even though many of you made fun of our Mary Poppins Returns predictions.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This category is, oddly, the first to totally firm up. Sam Elliott, Richard E Grant, Mahershala Ali, and Adam Driver all seem to have cemented their place (at least with pundits and general mood/feeling), so unless the Globes, SAG, NBR, and the critics prizes significantly ignore them and rally elsewhere you've already got four sure things with only one spot in play.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I regret to drop Elizabeth Debicki from my predictions since she's so great in Widows but I fear the worst now about the Oscar viability of the picture. In her place goes Rachel Weisz for The Favourite.
BEST ADAPTED & ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYS
I'll admit straightaway that I don't feel confident about my predictions in these categories. A lot could still change.
First Man won't be the nomination leader we were expecting but it still has a great shot in various categories
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY & PRODUCTION DESIGN
No changes to these predictions. These all seem so unbeatable in these categories which is why I'm probably wrong, haha. I would LOVE to see the day when the Harry Potter franchise quits its strangehold on Production Design though. Five nominations for one franchise is enough already! Give someone else a shot.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Though I haven't seen the picture yet I'm uncomfortable with the notion of Alexandra Byrne competing for Mary Queen of Scots since she already won for costuming this same exact story in Elizabeth: The Golden Age... but I think she will (sigh). At any rate we're crossing our fingers for Sandy Powell to nab another double nomination.
BEST FILM EDITING & BEST VISUAL EFFECTS & BEST MAKEUP
These could all be terribly wrong but they look right-ish, don'cha think?
Max Richter's score for "Mary Queen of Scots" is winning praise
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Mary Queen of Scots on the rise. But this category can and often does surprise. We'll see.
BEST SOUND MIXING & SOUND EDITING
Prepared to be horribly wrong here. I don't know why I have such different nominations predicted in both since 5/5 is more common than 2/5... I guess we're always hoping that the sound branch will make use of being granted two categories (we don't understand how the Academy allows that when so many other branches have to combine their skills for one prize -- like Makeup & Hair or Production Design and Set Decoration or Visual Effects which has a trillion different kinds of jobs within it)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Prepared to be horribly wrong here but whatever happens we're hoping the musical performances on Oscar night remain (given their horrifying need to have 3 hours only). We think it's silly that A Star is Born isn't trying to get two nominations so we've given the double nom spot to Mary Poppins Returns.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Our first attempt at predictions now that we have the eligiblity list. We're probably too heavy on the "blockbuster" (for documentaries... it's all relative). What do YOU think will happen here?
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Is this an Incredibles 2 vs Isle of Dogs battle, or is the conclusion already foregone?
Shoplifters in theaters tomorrow. DO NOT MISS IT.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The executive committee is going to have a real challenge on their hands deciding which films to save (after the nominating committees vote) since there are so many enormously acclaimed titles in the mix this year. The big question for Oscar watchers is whether there's room for an Asian film this year. Oscar is horribly averse to nominating Asian films in this category but it's hard to argue with the reviews and brilliance of Shoplifters (Japan) and Burning (South Korea). And given how many ballots will inevitably go for Roma, a lot of strange things could happen if small passions dominate elsewhere.
Reader Comments (31)
Have you attended a screening yet of Mary Poppins Returns?
I predict a big Thanksgiving holiday surge for “Widows”.
“Widows” is the perfect Thanksgiving palate cleanser.
After you have:
Cleaned the house, cooked the turkey, made the meal, smoothed over arguments, cleaned up after, shopped for Christmas presents
While the men drink and watch football
You slide into a comfortable theatre seat, and watch a movie where the unappreciative and inconsiderate husbands all die at the very beginning. Not a downer.
I'm surprised to see you drop Lucas Hedges and Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased. The film is doing well in the box office and both performances were great.
These days many pundits online are basically are saying: "Thank God, we're still got Mary Poppins, Vice and Queen of Scots to make it into the race". I think we had a pretty god crop without them, but hey the more the merrier.
I haven't seen Roma but I'm still saving a spot for Aparicio and I think SAG will include Jonathan Pryce as Best Supporting Actor and the Academy will follow.
I wish Maria by Callas could make it and I definitely see Powell getting two nods.
TFE and myself have been bullish on Blunt,they can't ignore her forever and MP is so beloved they have to get it right,I think Miranda maybe sneaks in the 5th spot for supporting,
Foy maybe done or may rally on Tv like Debicki could.
I still think Toni gets in the 5th spot MM this years big snub.
BA looks like it'll be your top 5.
Kidman did nothing in Boy Erased.
Hedges was great.
Just saw Bohemian Rhapsody. I thought Malek was almost laughably bad.
Nathaniel, I'm a bit shocked you don't point out the category fraud for Rachel Weisz (as you do for Stone). I cannot even see any argument that would justify Weisz in Supporting.
I think Vice and A Star is Born will make the screenplay races (in place of Green Book and Widows/The Death of Stalin). Otherwise, I think these look pretty good. I hope you are right about McCarthy.
Actor : Cooper, Bale, Mortensen, Malek, Gosling
Actress : Close, Gaga, McCarthy, Colman, Blunt
Supporting actor : Elliott, Grant, Ali, Rockwell, Pryce
Supporting actress : Adams, King, Foy, Stone, Weiss
I am being bullish this Oscar season on Pryce,seems an obvious choice,with Close sucking up all the talk I feel his work was sidelined as "The Rotten Husband" but he is more sympathetic and pathetic with it.Gr8 chemistry of familiarity with Close too
A STAR IS BORN submitted 3 possible songs: Shallow, Always Remember Us This Way and I'll Never Love Again. So I think they have a good chance of 2 nominations here.
Shallow is obviously the main hope (and should win the Oscar) and probably Always Remember Us This Way, which people seem to respond to slightly more than I'll Never Love Again, based on its streaming and chart positions around the world.
my predictions:
Best Picture: Roma | A Star is Born | Green Book | Black Panther | The Favourite | Vice | First Man | If Beale Street Could Talk | Mary Poppins Returns
Directing: Cuarón | Jenkins | Chazelle | Farelly | Lanthimos
Actor: Cooper | Gosling | Dafoe | Mortensen | Bale
Actress: Close | McCarthy | Colman | Mulligan | Theron
Suporting Actor: Elliot | Ali | Carell | Pryce | Grant
Supporting Actress: Adams | Stone | Weisz | Foy | King
Original Screenplay: The Favourite | Green Book | Vice | First Reformed | Roma
Adapted Screenplay: If Beale Street Could Talk | Can You Ever Forgive Me? | First Man | The Front Runner | Blackkklasman
Animated Feature Film: Isle of Dogs | Incredibles 2 | Spider-man Into The Spider-Verse | Wrecked Ralph 2 | Small Foot
Foreign Film: Roma | Border | Shoplifiters | Burning | The Wild Pear Tree
Editing: Roma | The Favourite | Green Book | First Man| If Beale Street Could Talk
Sound Mixing: Mary Poppins Returns | M:I Fallout | If Beale Street Could Talk | A Star is Born | First Man
Sound Editing: Incredibles 2 | The Favourite | Roma | M:I Fallout | First Man
Cinematography: Cold War | The Favourite | At Eternity's Gate | If Beale Street Could Talk | First Man
Makeup: Suspiria | Border | The Favourite
Production Design: The Favourite | Mary Poppins Returns | Fantastic Beasts 2 | Roma | If Beale Street Could Talk
Costume Design: Mary Poppins Returns | Fantastic Beasts 2 | The Favourite | Black Panther | If Beale Street Could Talk
Original Score: Suspiria | Fantastic Beasts 2 | If Beale Street Could Talk | First Man | Mary Poppins Returns
I agree that Pryce is a possibility - as somone else online has pointed out every time that Close has had a lead nomination she has managed to get a supporting nomination (Archer, Pfeiffer, Mcteer).
nat, thanks for the hard work to update the charts. personally i am bewildered by the acclaim about black panther, which i thought was mediocre at best. finally caught can you ever forgive me this weekend...really interesting movie. but i'm not sure about richard e. grant's nomination?
No BUSTER SCRUGGS? Even as a screenplay contender? They love the Coens.
I could see Rosamund Pike snagging some critic’s prizes/noms and getting some momentum. I think she should be listed somewhere given the type of reviews + her star power
Nathaniel, it continues to be weird that Rosamund Pike is not in the top 10.
Her movie is well-reviewed, her performance is very well-received.
As far as Widows goes, I loved it! It felt like patch work here and there, but it's easily one of the most entertaining movies of the year.
Viola Davis was wonderful but the character development was not. Now that she's an Oscar winner, I'm hoping she doesn't get nominated.
I'd like to see 5 women who have never won before to be nominated. With Clenn Close winning. It's really about time and the performance is honestly one of her best. It's not gonna be a disappointing Still Alice (instead of a rewarding Maps to the Stars) moment.
Yavor & Huh -- honestly i just forgot to add her to the chart. so she's in there now at #11
I still think it's worth noting that the entire cast of A Quiet Place is campaigning as supporting. Emily Blunt has had a heck of a year, and it's possible she can pull off a double nomination if Paramount can mount a solid campaign.
Critics be damned! If the academy wants people to watch the oscars in 2019 -nominate Malek for actor and Bohemian Rhapsody for picture. Wins arent necessary, but everyone I know loved this movie. It’s kind of the “blind side” of 2018!
Thanks Nathaniel for this Thanksgiving present - a full revised update! And your predictions are solid.
I think Jonathan Pryce is terrible in The Wife. When I saw the film with my mom, she leaned over to me during the initial party scene at their home and asked, "so she wrote all his books, right?" And I said, "well probably, because they obviously we want us to hate him." I also never believed that he could have attracted young women to have affairs with him - he was just too grotesque and dislikable; he had no charm at all.
Terrible performances have been nominated for Oscars before, but generally they are in movies with some heat (Mark Ruffalo in Spotlight), or they are actors on a career trajectory with Oscar (Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones).
That's not how I read Pryce at all,he was quite a pathetic character who by his chemistry with Close becomes sympathetic.
What about Keira Knightley for Colette? I know it's unlikely, but that film was a sleeper hit at the box office and a lot of people loved it and loved her in the film.
Green Book is underperforming at the box office since it's opened wide. I think with our current cultural climate, there will certainly be a large contingent of the Academy who will roll its eyes that the character lead of this story is a white man. We are not living in the Driving Miss Daisy era of the Oscars anymore.
I still think McCarthy is a threat, but it's weird that she's not being singled out anywhere as of now. A critics win would help her case. A Golden Globe and SAG nom are a must for her.
I just saw Widows tonight and I really hope it can nab a BP nom at least, I was enthralled throughout. And Viola Davis and Elizabeth Debicki were quite good.
I would love a surge for Daniel Kaluuya in "Widows" but that seems unlikely.
Can I just point out that Green Room will definitely not get nominated for BP? (haha)
Green Book, on the other hand... I'm perplexed about where it stands. On paper it's the type of thing that should play great with audiences. Why isn't it? Are Viggo and Mahershala just not a big draw? Does box office hurt its chances? Is it still too early? (Maybe it'll hit its stride when it opens wider, and I'm just overreacting.)
I'm curious as to why you've downgraded Melissa McCarthy. Her reviews are great and the film seems to be doing well. Is it just that other people are moving up, or do you think that Oscar voters are losing interest in the film (and the performance)?
Roma is one of the movies I'm most excited about this year, and I don't know when I'm going to have a chance to see it on the big screen. Almost every review I've read says, "You must see this movie on the big screen!" But Netflix seems to be doing its damnedest to make it hard for people to see it on the big screen. I know they've added a few theatrical dates, but it's going to debut on Netflix in just two weeks, and as far as I can tell, it's going to be in theaters for exactly one day here in the Bay Area. What do you think of the campaign that Netflix is running, and do you think the film's Oscar prospects are in any way endangered by the fact that this movie is going to be on the big screen for such a brief period of time?
Thanks for your work on the charts. One minor suggestion - I think the song "A Place Called Slaughter Race" from Ralph Breaks the Internet should be in the mix somewhere. I mean, Sarah Silverman's princess song (co-wrtten by Alan Menken, no less) surely has as much of an Oscar shot as, say, "Blame Canada"?
Very minor suggestion: Can/should Jonny Greenwood's score for You Were Never Really Here be added somewhere to the Original Score list? I realize that it may be a tougher year for original scores, but it's a phenomenal score and he did get nominated last year.