Aug 30th - All Oscar Charts Updated!
Thursday, August 30, 2018 at 9:00PM by Nathaniel R
We've been needing to update all the Oscar charts and we've just about waited too long since Venice and Telluride have begun and soon things will be changing daily. But let it suffice to say that these are hunches just before the festival explosion. Team Experience is off to TIFF next week when we'll be seeing a lot of the contenders and consensus will begin to form around half of the titles, too. Some key November/December films will remain a mystery until just before their release, though.
The freshly revamped charts...
PREDICTION INDEX | PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | SCREENPLAYS | FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM | VISUALS | SOUNDS | ANIMATED FEATURES
And about that 'Popular Achievement Oscar' Thingamabob...
We haven't yet added a chart since Oscar has released no details about what they plan -- have they planned any details? -- but I've added a list of 8 films I predict could compete for it at the bottom of the Best Picture chart. Naturally half of them are already on the Best Picture chart, since we hardly need such a category.
Reader Comments (36)
I hope that Rachel Weisz gets some awards loving this year. She was wonderful in Disobedience, and reports out of Venice this morning point to her being just as wonderful in The Favourite.
I wish I could have Olivia Colman's 2018-2019 streak.
Shoplifters is a shoe-in for a Foreign Language nomination, no?
No offense but it's already a little outdated as of today, what with Roma receiving hosannas out of Venice.
Now for some crazy talk: Any chance of The Other Side of Wind somehow nabbing Orson Welles and/or John Huston posthumous noms?
The header photo for best actor looks odd to me. Should be Redmayne, DiCaprio, Affleck And Chalamet!!! Ah well. Maybe he’ll scoop supporting actor this year. And two nods for Nicole !!
@Joseph: you misspelled "Day-Lewis". :-)
Please, get rid of that stupid Popular Film category and in place, put awards for casting, stunt work, and dance choreography.
I’m pulling for Debra Granik to get a directing runner-up with a critics’ group for Leave No Trace
Tr -- we'll see with ROMA. so many things could happen with it. It is a foreign language film distributed by Netflix so we'll see.
The Welles film is not eligible. The Academy changed the rules after Chaplin won an Oscar for a movie that sat around for a few decades. At least I think they did. I am fairly sure of that. Otherwise they'd be gaming the system bad.
Question... A STAR IS BORN in adapted screenplay? Not even a possibility, or just a flub.
Really hoping DESTROYER, er, destroys Telluride and becomes a cause celebre.
Glenn -- i have it in the long list on the chart but I dont think it happens. It's too easy for Oscar to dismiss musicals in that category and i think being the fourth version of the story will hurt it with the writers branch.
How on earth did Emily Blunt go down with Nicole going up? From a picture of Nicole in ghastly makeup? I sometimes question your objectivity.
Faye -- trust that I would be thrilled if Emily were nominated. But the buzz has been loud on Kidman and we know Oscar loves deglam (i myself do not)
Some actresses are nominated if their movies are simply good or half good. Nicole Kidman/Charlize Theron/Natalie Portman/Michelle Williams are nominated when all the world of critics say their movies are very very extremely extraordinarily explendid - or they will nominate an actress with a half good movie in the place.
I think Colman and Stone get in for Supporting Actress with Colman winning, unless Amy steals.
Well thanks for this !! Where actually is Rosamund Pike on your list ? Her work in the Trailer of "A Private War" as Marie Colvin looks absolutely astonishing, haunted and in a way so different I was so intrigued after seeing it - always loved her work but this looks like very promising Oscar bait ... so I wonder why not ?
... always excited about your updates (wish we could have one every week .. just saying ;-)
X-mas wish list for this year:
Mulligan, Collette, Thompson, Blunt - as they all deserve more recognition and Close taking the statue home. Should be career honour anyway ... if they do it with Oldman (instead of Chalamet) & DiCaprio (instead of Fassbender) they f... owe her this one !
Why am I not completely chuffed about the Best Picture list ? It's all there - super diverse - still besides Widows & The Favourite nothing tickles ...
Coleman does though & I love the idea of Hawke in an otherwise fairly medicocre men's race so fare.
The buzz on Destroyer is big. I was shocked I couldn't get a ticket to the premium screening at TIFF and I'm a member with a premium package and single tickets haven't gone on sale yet!
Why is Felicity Jones so low for On the Basis of Sex? I would thing she would be Top Tier!
I think CRAZY RICH ASIANS should at least be in the longlist for Adapted Screenplay! Don't you?
Also I wonder if any of their Chinese translated songs are eligible for Best Song. Probably not? But man... that final sequence to "Yellow" is just... wow. And yeah, Yeoh and Best Popular film are probably their best chances for some Oscar love. Hope the Globes go big for them though!
I think you're underestimating McCarthy by a few tiers.
So, another year with only male directors nominated? I think so because will be really difficult not see
Chazelle
Cuarón
McKay
One of the black boys: McQueen, Lee, Jenkins
One of the "author" boys: Gray, Schnabel, Guadagnino, Lanthimos
On the final five.
But I really hope that we could have two female nominees in original screenplay
The Favourite
Tully
Adapted screenplay will be the blood battle this year?
Five noms to embody
The first man - If Beale street could talk - Widows - Suspiria - Boy Erased - The Wife - etc
I'm kind of surprised Mary Poppins Returns is in the conversation here. We've seen so little of it, and since when do Disney's live-action retreads and reboots get much play outside of technical categories?
Ryan T -- oops. I have fixed that. You're absolutely right. I meant to add it in.
Jon -- i could see a scenario where 3 from the 4 black directors in the conversation (McQueen, Coogler, Lee, and Jenkins) are nominated. People love to complain rather than celebrate progress but I think it's a shock -- comparatively to other years within Hollywood's output-- that four men of color are so feasible. So there's definitely huge progress in Hollywood in terms of marginalized voices. I mean as i've said so often, the Academy can only choose from the films that are made! -- Not that anyone ever wants to praise Hollywood ;)
Mallinkrot & Hayden -- you just have to make choices is all. There are definitely more than 5 women with buzz. For some reason i'm not feeling that film even though I want to.
Austin: 1. Its a sequel, not a remake. Oscar isn't super into either, but its slightly more into sequels than remakes. 2. Rob Marshall. 4 of his 5 movies have gotten nominations, 3 of those pulling off at least one Big 8 nomination. And the one that didn't (Memoirs of a Geisha) get any Big 8 nods? Was probably close to getting one. 3. The original was Disney's FIRST Best Picture nomination. Which at least makes it more likely for a major play than Pirates 4.
Having seen The Favourite I think that Stone will be pushed as lead (her role seems larger) while Colman and Weisz as supporting. All three are memorable in different ways and maybe they all will get in, but the one who steals the show and has a very strong chance at winning is Colman, who is ferociously funny and heartbreaking.
Roma is marvelous, stunning visuals and camera work.
Why are some people so against Kidman,I agree with Nat for such a varied and extraordinairly diverse filmography she has been a winner/nominee very few times and those 4 noms could do with improving on.
I have a strong suspicion that Robert Redford is about to pull a Peter O'Toole in Venus...
To answer markgordonuk I do not dislike Kidman...I just think she does the same stoic type acting in each role she plays. When she did To Die For, I thought she was great. She really extended herself... a couple of other movies, too.
I would not care of any other award given, but I would love to see Olivia Colman win an award.
@Nathaniel
I don't see today
Chazelle
McKay
Cuarón
Not nominated!
The other two nominations will be between
Black Boys - McQueen, Jenkins, Lee and Coogler (dear god, this last two absolutely NOT!)
Authors - Gray, Schnabel, Lanthimos,
Surprise - Reitman, Fiennes
In a ideal and minor competitive year we all have 3 black directors nominees, but go with me: not this year!
If you think she's doing stoic in The Paperboy,Margot at the Wedding,Birth or Lion you haven't seen enough Kidman
Mallinkrodt
-No festival run
-December 25 release
-Terrible trailer
-Mimi Leder terrible record. Say what you want of The Leftovers, but her film work pales to her TV work
-Better preference for other Focus
I know you can have doubts of "Roma", but seriously below "Welcome to Marwen" (when Zemeckis hasn't make any interesting film in eons) and "Mary Queen of Scots" (And I know you want to risk bets, but srly, anyone would believe Carell will be nominated for THAT after watching both trailers?) Much less for being no. 1. Even "Crazy Rich Asians" would have been more understandable comparing these options.
markgordonuk: As far as "stoic" goes? Paperboy? No. Margot at the Wedding? Yes. Birth? Kind of, at least on what I saw. (Library borrow and the disc didn't work.) Lion? No. Moulin Rouge! would be a good performance that would be an example of not being stoic, as would Cold Mountain, Nine and (especially in her clip) Rabbit Hole. Examples of non-stoic in bad performances would include Batman Forever and Bewitched.
On the basis of the trailer for "On the Basis of Sex," I think it looks terrible especially after seeing "RBG." It just looks like it pales in comparison, so I will be surprised if it factors at all in picture. I think "Crazy Rich Asians" may come on stronger for picture based on the stellar box office and the fact that it's just a swell piece of entertainment, a throwback to old Hollywood glamour but with a modern touch. If both it and "Black Panther" sneak into best picture, it really negates the need for a separate popular film category.