Will Smith is the Best Actor frontrunner. But who else is coming to that party?

by Nathaniel R

While the Best Supporting Actress race, discussed yesterday (and chart updated), is a little fuzzy and possibly volatile with major performances still left to screen, Best Actor is feeling more or less concrete in terms of available possibilities. Mind you, the cement is still wet.

THE FRONTRUNNERS
Two time nominee Will Smith (King Richard) and one-time nominee Benedict Cumberbatch (Power of the Dog) have the early lead. Both films are widely screened and well liked and both roles are actorly showcases.  Major stardom does a lot of footwork in building Oscar traction; they both have that advantage, too. But who will join them?

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Who's got the lead in Best Supporting Actress?

by Nathaniel R

Kiki in Los Angeles and Aunjanue in Savannah recently

“The internet,” by which I mean that diffuse vibe one gets by scrolling through twitter, and clicking on award and film sites, always likes to jump the gun. People have figuratively been handing out Oscars for months, well before the campaigns revved up. But the long season of direct FYCs has now truly begun with Q&As and screenings suddenly abundant on both coasts. So where are we at with Best Supporting Actress? Don’t believe anyone who thinks this race is already settled. The supporting categories are often the last to clear up as they’re quite dependent on the film that houses them, the strength of the campaign, and once nominations are announced, the narratives for the win. But we do have some nomination probabilities.

ALMOST SURE THINGS?
I’ve moved Kristen Dunst and Aunjanue Ellis to the top of the charts in this category partially because they have no internal competition from their own films for that golden ticket to the Dolby. More importantly their films, Power of the Dog and King Richard respectively, have major Best Picture buzz and that always helps...

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C'mon C'mon is "...a gift"

The new trailer for C'Mon C'Mon is upon us and we were proud to see our own Jason Adams quoted from his typically brilliant review. The movie arrives on November 19th in time for Thanksgiving. We currently have predicted it for 3 Oscar nominations (Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actor) which is either too much or too little. What'cha think? 

Oscar Chart Updates - All Acting Categories

by Nathaniel R

I'm just back from the Middleburg Film Festival, which we'll tell you more about soon, so I've mostly caught up with the Oscar hopefuls that have screened to date. The only true mysteries for us Oscar pundits now, other than how precursors will react, is the films that haven't screened very much or at all: West Side Story, Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, Being The Ricardos, House of Gucci, and Don't Look Up. So let the revised punditry commence. The links go to the charts...

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Highlights from Middleburg's "Coffee & Contenders"

by Nathaniel R

Clayton Davis, Jazz Tangcay and I created this annual panel at Middleburg together (I named it!) and now we're a regular event early in the morning at the beginning of each fest.  The new venue, outside in a tent, is a big improvement over our initially cozy but cramped space while the crowd is the (wonderful) same. Here are highlights from the public discussion this morning as well as the private discussions before and after the event (it all blurs together at film festivals which are so social)...

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