Oscar's Acting Categories Take Shape. Or Do They?

If you're an Oscar chart junkie, you'll see some key shifts on all four acting charts which are now updated. The biggest switcheroo is Jessica Chastain moving to Supporting Actress (the original prediction back in April) which shakes that field up more than it creates a vacuum with the Best Actress race and both Foxcatcher men dropping out of the predicted lead actor shortlist.

Papa, how can I be too high in rank to dine with the servants and too low to dine with my family?

Best Actress has been hard to suss out beyond two sure things: Julianne Moore as a professor with early on-set Alzheimers and Reese Witherspoon as a woman trying to forgive herself and start anew by hiking the PCT. Both of those films are major star vehicles in that they put their leading actress and her considerable gifts front and center without obstructed views. Gone Girl and The Theory of Everything also look somewhat likely to produce nominees but those are definitely two-lead films which Pike and Jones must share with their screen hubbies. On the podcast this weekend we'll talk more about this race because the field still seems wide open beyond those four names. And, if past years are any indication, one of them could surprisingly drop out. There are a lot of viable women hoping to unseat them, which makes "where are the best actress candidates?" articles in major outlets like THR and The Washington Post absolutely mystifying or ignorant or sexist or something. Something not right is the point. Particular maddening is that THR article which claims two dozen viable Best Actor candidates beyond the presumed frontrunners but will even list the most longshot of longshots like Eller Coltrane (Boyhood) and Al Pacino (The Humbling) and Kevin Costner (Black and White) -- none of which have any heat -- as "credible" contenders but can't think of ANY slightly under the radar women other than Jenny Slate (Obvious Child)? That's wearing some serious blinders to support your thesis. [more...]

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AFI: Selma Premiere or, We Ate Cookies With Lorraine Toussaint!

Safely happily physically ensconced back in New York City, my head is still ping-ponging around that exciting week in Los Angeles. My thoughts take scary stumbles back in time to 1960s Alabama when white politicians and racists were trying to stop black citizens from voting. Sound familiar? The first part, I mean. Sadly in 2014 we're still fighting efforts to surpress the vote, making Ava DuVernay's upcoming Christmas release Selma a historical drama that is also uncomfortably contemporary.

The AFI FESTIVAL PRESENTED BY CORPORATION (don't make me say it, publicists!) closes tonight with Foxcatcher but we'll have a few more days of coverage to catch up. My closing night film was the world premiere of Selma. It was so fresh from the editing bay that the great cinematographer Bradford Young was brought up on stage five days earlier for that A Most Violent Year premiere (he's busy) only to instantly return to the film for color corrections. It was so new that a couple of visual effects and a few sound issues had not been fully resolved. The event was pitched as a preview of 30 minutes of the film but Oprah Winfrey, who produced, convinced Ava to seize the opportunity to present the (nearly) completed work. We were actually asked not to review it though I see that the rest of the internet has thoroughly disobeyed this studio request. Virtually the whole cast was there with the exception of the white guys (Allesandro Nivola, Giovanni Ribisi, Tom Wilkinson) and Carmen Ejogo who plays Coretta Scott King.

More on Ejogo, Oscar play, and a party photos after the jump...

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Red Carpet: Governors Award Fashions... Let the Campaigns Begin

Jose here. As Nathaniel noted, the Governors Awards were held last night in Hollywood (yay Maureen O’Hara!). As usual they were pretty much a rehearsal dinner for the Oscars next year. While their red carpet is more subdued than Oscar’s - they’re there to pay tribute to legendary honorees, not to steal their thunder - there were a few exceptions to the rule. After all, if you want people to vote for you, you gotta make sure they remember you.

Let's take a look at what 16 of the Oscar hopefuls wore. What might it mean in the larger scheme of things?

 

Emily Blunt has worn this exact same thing to at least 10 other award ceremonies, color variations aside. Don't get me wrong, she's stunning etc. etc. etc. but will it help The Baker's Wife's Oscar cause, to look so every-year Blunt? The under-nominated actress should start experimenting and leave her go-to silhouette behind - wear a massive ball gown that tells people...

you've changed! you're daring! You're different in the woods!  ♪ ♫

Reese Witherspoon, too, looks the same, except it works to her favor. She's paying homage to Elle Woods, reminding voters how funny and cute she was in Legally Blonde, and how complex and dark she is in Wild by contrast. I rest my case.

Now two Best Actress dark horses, Gugu Mbatha-Raw has been in our minds all year long with her breakthrough performance in the sleeper box office hit Belle, and as she prepares to do the publicity rounds for Beyond the Lights it was delightful to see her attend. Perennial nominations-bridesmaid Marion Cotillard showed up with the Dardennes to remind people how terrific she is in Two Days, One Night, while I'm not particularly in love with her Dior dress (pretty much an altered version of what J.Law wore at the Oscars this year) I hope she talked to everyone at that party (it was 600 people) to convince them to vote for her.

 In a just world, Jenny Slate would be a slam dunk contender for Best Actress because she's incredible in Obvious Child, but an indie about abortion without a heartwarming message or a twee soundtrack is perhaps way too cool for Oscar. She definitely seems to be playing the "newbie" card, which is why she showed up dressed like Lupita Nyong'o at this year's ceremony. I hope that helps her cause! Jessica Chastain was there too, as she always is nowadays and rightfully so, and of course she was campaigning for her three or four scenes in Interstellar because it's November and she has made absolutely no other movies this year. I don't know what you mean about a three-hour-long melodrama with James McAvoy in which she's giving us Meryl Streep in Kramer vs. Kramer brilliance and a 1980s gangster flick...I seriously don't.

In a just world, Jenny Slate would be a slam dunk contender for Best Actress because she's incredible in Obvious Child, but an indie about abortion without a heartwarming message or a twee soundtrack is perhaps way too cool for Oscar. She definitely seems to be playing the "newbie" card, which is why she showed up dressed like Lupita Nyong'o at the Oscars. Will it help her campaign subliminally? Jessica Chastain was there too - where isn't she nowadays? -- and of course she was campaigning for her three or four scenes in Interstellar because it's November and she [ahem] has made absolutely no other movies this year. I don't know what you mean about a three-hour-long melodrama with James McAvoy in which she's giving us Meryl Streep in Kramer vs. Kramer brilliance and a 1980s gangster flick with Oscar Isaac in which she's giving us Michelle Pfeiffer in Scarface ...I seriously don't.

 Literally, every single person involved in Boyhood was there. All. Of. Them. Look!

Moving on...

If there was such a thing as prom king and queen of awards season red carpet, this year would continue to be a popularity contest by way of The Imitation Game vs. The Theory of Everything. (Cumberbatch may have won round 1 in Toronto but round 2 on the early campaign trail has gone to Redmayne.) Just look at how cute they all are! Will people who vote for Eddie Redmayne feel like they must vote for Felicity Jones too? Can Benedict Cumberbatch win without Keira Knightley? For now, all I can say is that not since Kate & Leo have I wanted two screen couples to get married like I want these Brits to do.

 All of these handsome men below are potential Best Actor spoilers, and all of them seem to have shown up primarily to remind voters "hey, we clean up nice too!" since none of them play particularly glamorous characters. I'm especially bowled over by Oscar Isaac's bold brown tux with Clark Gable mischievous mustache accessory. Which one is making you swoon?

About that not-stealing-honorary-thunder business...

When does Tilda Swinton not steal everyone else's thunder? At first it seems strange she was even there until you remember "Remember that weird lady in Snowpiercer !" She undoubtedly has to remind people many times that that was her, which makes her instantly praise worthy. From frumpy to avant garde, now that's how you get votes. Similarly David Oyelowo showed up in one of the only tuxes worth talking about. 

Which of these dazzling stars will we be seeing in every red carpet from now until Oscar? What were some of your favorite looks?

AFI Opening Night: A Most Violent Year Spawns A Most Excellent Party

Dear readers, though I have crashed a bit mood-wise (blame my Gemini nature) on this Friday the first 24 hours in Los Angeles for "The AFI Fest Presented by Audi - they expect everyone to say that since it rolls right off the tongue! -  were euphoric. It was surely a good omen that all the emails and tweets awaiting me once I was out of airplane mode were about The Fabulous Baker Boys 25th anniversary photo reunion. My favorite new compliment that I plan to use whenever I can think of a way to use it came from devout reader / awesome Canadian Cory who wrote:

Congrats on this existing".

In fact, that's exactly what I should have said to JC Chandor at the after party for A MOST VIOLENT YEAR's gala premiere. [More...]

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Oscar Updates: Acting Pairs and Young Bucks

The chart updates continue. I've been thinking a lot about Foxcatcher and Love is Strange and whether or not Sony Pictures Classics will have the guts to campaign all four of those male leads as leads. Essentially they'd be asking for 80% of the category which would be extremely ballsy (no pun intended with four sets of them) but also honest. For these July updates I'm fantasizing that they will.

Eddie Redmayne, David Oyelowo, and Channing Tatum are just three of the fresh crop of leading men who might be competing for Oscar gold for real life roles

But the funny thing is: Best Actor is enormously crowded without any of that acclaimed quartet. Playing a real life character won't even get you very far because most lead actors are doing just that, thereby dulling its time-tested competitive advantage. I count at least 10 possibly major contenders this year in biographical roles: Cumberbatch, Redmayne, Oyelowo, Carell, Tatum, Spall, Boseman, O'Connell, Hill and Maguire. And that's not including Christoph Waltz who I'm now guessing will try his luck doing the co-lead as supporting thing again for Big Eyes which has worked well for him twice before; he's like the Poster Boy for Category Fraud.

The most exciting thing about the Best Actor Chart? Most of them have never been nominated so we're likely to have a real fresh quintet. With all these true stories in 2014 Supporting Actor may well be filled to bursting with real life, too, albeit without as many newbies in the mix. Good luck to the originals I say who have to create three-dimensional characters from whole cloth and the never nominated who are eager to be let in throughthe golden door.

Breaking Jack O'Connell?
On Emmy nomination morning this new trailer emerged for Angelina Jolie's Unbroken, a World War II drama which is likely to be a major breakthrough event for its lead actor Jack O'Connell, especially given that he's already shown true star charisma according to everyone who has seen his raw prison drama Starred Up (also due this year). But there are three potential obstacles to a presumed Best Actor run.

1. The man he's playing, Louis Zamperini, just died and those can be tricky waters to navigate in terms of film releases and campaigning without seeming exploitative about it (see Mandela's tip toe last year)

2. AMPAS is not as predictable these days with what we might well call 'classic Oscar bait'. They've been getting friskier with their choices for some time now (think of that 2006 win and then the entire 2007 lineup and so on through the now: Amour? Beasts of the Southern Wild? etcetera) . Old school 'triumph of the human spirit' epics and glossy WWII pics are no longer sure things. 

3. Jack O'Connell turns 24 next month. That's extremely young for Best Actor. For some context should O'Connell be nominated for this role with lots of hooks (crying, real life character, accent, weight loss, heroism) he will be the 2nd youngest nominee of the modern era, just a shade older than John Travolta was for his zeitgest 1977 blockbuster Saturday Night Fever. (Mickey Rooney and Jackie Cooper were even younger for their noms but that was back in the 30s and early 40s). Only one actor in his 20s has ever won the top prize and that was Adrien Brody for The Pianist, three weeks shy of his 30th birthday.

updated Oscar charts
BEST ACTOR, BEST ACTRESS, SUPPORTING ACTOR, SUPPORTING ACTRESS