Oscar Prediction Updates Galore ~ Halfway Mark!

In the upcoming week(s) we'll take a look back through the first half of the film year (and try to tie up loose ends from 2011. I know I know. I have time management issues). But what of the 2012/13 Oscar season? The term halfway mark is completely deceiving when it comes to awards season. We're not at all halfway to Oscar. In fact we've only just begun. We've seen a few mainstream genre pieces that are likely to factor in at least a little (The Avengers, Brave,  Prometheus) but this weekend brings us our first orphan Best Picture contender in the critical darling Beasts of the Southern Wild. We're not at all halfway through the real contenders but since we're halfway through the calendar, it's time to update the charts. 

BEST PICTURE and DIRECTOR
With Gravity pushed back to 2013, let's bet on the other big budget big risk, Ang Lee's adaptation of Life of Pi. The website to that film is up and running now and I keep hitting refresh to watch the tiger's leap and roar. Roooooowwr. Reload. Roooooowwwr. Reload. Roooowwwwrr. Reload. It thrills me every time. I blame my love of both cats and Oscar punditry multiplied by OCD. 

ACTOR, ACTRESS, SUPPORTING ACTOR, SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lots of shuffling on these charts, particularly within both supporting categories. Those players don't come into easy focus until the fall. Newbies on these big charts include the first time actors who play father/daughter in the riveting Beasts of the Southern Wild (interviews real soon), Michelle Pfeiffer in People Like Us (just discussed), Michael Fassbender in Prometheus (just discussed), Isla Fisher from The Great Gatsby and Matthew McConaughey from Magic Mike. Lots more on that film coming which wasn't quite what I was expecting but which I thoroughly enjoyed.

FOREIGN FILMS new chart!
Denmark's  A Royal Affair made big waves at Berlinale and its easy to picture a sumptuous expertly acted costume drama winning AMPAS attention. Cannes hits from lauded auteurs like Haneke, Mungiu, Audiard and Garrone could also be submitted from their countries though it's far too early to know. Any other suggestions? 

And more... VISUAL and AURAL CATEGORIES see gains for Life of Pi and The Avengers the latter of which is probably too big now to ignore at $600 million even though Oscar hasn't been crazy about superhero flicks. Beasts shakes up the adapted SCREENPLAY chart but the original screenplay category is a complete mystery. It's anyone's guess.

There's no changes to the ANIMATED CHART because, quite frankly, I lost the thread there. I've only seen Brave this year. Make more of an effort with the toons, I must.

As always your armchair punditry is welcome in the comments. Where am I off base? Which hunches do you think are smart ones? Make your case or describe what you see in your crystal ball.  

Juliette or Guilietta?

Have you heard that Juliette Lewis will be starring in a film called The Days of Mary (2013?) loosely based on Federico Fellini's Oscar-winning Nights of Cabiria (1957)? It feels like her first lead role in ages so we hope it actually happens.

poll by twiigs.com

It's now in Reno -- practically Rome's twin ! (kidding) -- and Juliette is a girl looking for love in, we presume, the wrong places. Bad things tend to happen in movies where Juliette is entangled romantically: mass murder (NBK), end of times chaos (Strange Days), thumbsucking (Cape Fear) but this project doesn't feel as shocking / sacrilegious when you remember that Nights of Cabiria has already been reimagined once as Sweet Charity (1969) starring Shirley Maclaine.

Okay, wait, we need to remake reboot reimagine that poll now...

poll by twiigs.com

Have you seen Nights of Cabiria and Sweet Charity? If not, get on that, will ya?

"A Separation" Wins Big at the Asian Film Awards

Congralutations to Andy Lau (representing Hong Kong's Oscar submission A Simple Life) and Eugene Domingo (the star of The Philippine's Oscar submission Woman in a Septic Tank) who won the People's Choice Award for Actor and Actress at the 6th Annual Asian Film Awards.

They look so happy. The Oscars are long over but somehow it's comforting to know that people hold new trophies every day of the year for something or other and not all of them are dreaming of Oscar. And not all awards bodies are concerned with whether or not Oscar voters are watching.

It was a big night for A Separation (which we were just talking about) which took home the top prize and three others. The craft categories were mostly split between Wu Xia and The Flying Swords of Dragon Gale, neither of which have come to US cinemas.

The acting awards were all over the place both in terms of films and countries.

The Winners
Film A Separation [Iran]
Director Asghar Farhadi, A Separation [Iran]
Actress Deanie Ip, A Simple Life [Hong Kong]
Actor Donny Damara, Lovely Man [Indonesia] 
Newcomer Ni Ni, The Flowers of War [China] 
Supporting Actress Shemaine Buencamino, Nino [The Philippines]
Supporting Actor Lawrence Ko Jump, Ashin! [Taiwan] 

Donny Damara plays a transgendered father in "Lovely Man"

Screenplay Asghar Farhadi, A Separation [Iran]
Cinematography Jake Pollock & Lai Yiu-fai Wu Xia [China | Hong Kong]
Production Design Yee Chung-man, Sun Li, Wu Xia [China | Hong Kong] 
Score Chan Kwong-wing, Peter Kam, Chatchai Pongprapaphan, Wu Xia [China | Hong Kong]
Editor Hayedeh Safiyari, A Separation [Iran]
Visual Effects Wook Kim, Josh Cole, Frankie Chung, The Flying Swords of Dragon Gale [China | Hong Kong ]
Costume Design Yee Chung-man, Lai Hsuan-wu The Flying Swords of Dragon Gale [China | Hong Kong] 

The Flying Swords of Dragon Gale hasn't come to the States yet but since it stars Jet Li and it's action oriented, I suppose we'll get it at some point.

Special Awards Lifetime Achievement for Hong Kong director Ann Hui and The Edward Yang New Talent Awards for Indonesia's Edwin. 

Two Box Office Lists, One "A Separation" Inspired

It was a big weekend for spoofing familiar concepts with 21 Jump Street filling movie houses and the only other top ten newbie Casa De Mi Padre, doing a parodic riff on Mexican movies starring Will Ferrell and everyone's favorite Mexican tag team: Gael García Bernal & Diego Luna. Would love to hear from anyone who saw the latter in the comments since this one slipped me by and GGB is an old favorite. (My review of 21 Jump Street will be up tomorrow evening.)

TOP TEN (Estimates)
01 21 JUMP STREET  $35 new in wide release
02 THE LORAX  $22.8 (cum. $158.4)
03 JOHN CARTER  $13.5  (cum. $53.1) [Review and Taylor Kitsch Beefcake]
04 PROJECT X  $4 (cum. $48.1)
05 A THOUSAND WORDS $3.7   (cum. $12.1)
06 ACT OF VALOR   $3.6 (cum. $62.3)
07 SAFE HOUSE  $2.8 (cum. $120.2)
08 JOURNEY 2 THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND $2.4 (cum. $95)
09 CASA DE MI PADRE  $2.2 new in limited release
10 THIS MEANS WAR $2.1  (cum. $50.5)

Another Milestone for A Separation
Asgar Farhadi's Oscar winner A Separation (our favorite of 2011) continues its incredible theatrical run passing the 5 million mark. Five million for an Iranian family drama at the US box office? Unheard of. Every once in a blue moon the nation's box office gives us good news for quality cinema. While we're here why not a look back at the biggest foreign hits from the past year?

TOP TWENTY SUBTITLED HITS RELEASED IN THE US IN 2011
Disclaimer: I didn't count The Artist. Though it's foreign, it's silent so we're excluding it but you'll understand that if we did it'd be number one with an incredible $42 million. Don't believe those naysayers that call it a box office disappointment. Black and white + no stars + silent + foreign = $42 million is big big numbers.

Kristin Scott Thomas continues to be a draw ... at least when subtitled.

The ones that got a lot of people talking...
01 SARAH'S KEY [France] $7.6
02 A SEPARATION [Iran] $5.6 and still playing
The Oscar winner this year which we like writing about.
03 BIUTIFUL [Mexico] $5.1   Technically a 2010 picture since it had a one week qualifying run before being pulled until the nominations were announced. But we'll count it for comparison's sake.
04 OF GODS AND MEN [France] $3.9  It was held back to 2011 to capitalize on a presumed Oscar, but the nomination didn't even come. Did very well for itself in 2011 anyway which is not the usual case for that sort of "wait for the Oscar" trick.

other successes
05 DON 2 [India] $3.6 
06 THE SKIN I LIVE IN [Spain] $3.1
"Success" being relative. This didn't do Pedro Almodóvar's usual numbers though I'm unsure as to why.
07 ZINDAGI NA MILEGI DOBARA [India] $3.1
08 PINA [Germany] $3.0 and still playing The Oscar nominated dance documentary... in 3D.
09 RA ONE [India]  $2.5
10 INCENDIES [Canada] $2.0   Another Oscar nominee from last year

POTICHE was such fun. Arthouse audiences (mostly) agreed.

minor hits... but still hits
11 BODYGUARD [India]  $1.8
12 POTICHE [France] $1.6
13 DELHI BELLY [India]  $1.5
14 THE DOUBLE HOUR [Italy] $1.5 
15 SAVING PRIVATE PEREZ [Mexico]  $1.4
16 CERTIFIED COPY [France| Italy | Belgium ] $1.3
17 NO ERES TU, SO YO [Mexico] $1.3 
18 DESI BOYZ [India] $1.0
19 IN A BETTER WORLD [Denmark]  $1.0 The Foreign Film Oscar winner last year
20 READY [India]  $.9

ol' faithfuls French cinema and Bollywood continue to have the most reliable ticket buyers in the US arthouses. Bollywood movies don't need any press attention at all to find audiences. Even if you follow the movies religiously chances are you haven't heard of their annual hits if you're not out there looking for them. France is a different story in that way, getting and needing the media push.

Hrithik Roshan & Shah Rukh Khan are superstars of Bollywood. So is the male physique.

And also: What is it with Bollywood and über muscley male superstars? Bollywood men are way more objectified than their Hollywood counterparts.

Jeon Do Yeon, our favorite Korean actressjust outside the list Japan's ultra violent epic 13 Assassins got some attention and press but didn't quite cross the million mark.

sad observation Though South Korea is where it's at right now for regional cinema heat (as opposed to heat tied to specific filmmakers) the country's cinema has yet to catch on with arthouse moviegoers here in the States. Despite huge acclaim Mother, Thirst and Poetry, three of the most interesting films of the past few years, didn't totally catch on. None of them crossed the magic million dollar mark and only one of them passed ½ a million. The Housemaid and Secret Sunshine were also not true breakthroughs despite the exciting lead actressing of Jeon Do-Yeon.

Answer me these questions three

• Which of the top 20 foreign hits did you see?
• What did you see this weekend?
• Any theories as to why The Skin I Live In wasn't up to Pedro's usual numbers or why Bollywood worships male flesh?
  

Burning Questions: What's Controversial About "A Separation"?

Michael C. checking in with some of the aftermath of Oscar 2012. According to a report on Huffington Post, despite having previously trumpeted A Separation's Oscar win as a national triumph Iranian authorities have canceled an event to be hosted by leading Iranian film groups in honor of Asghar Farhadi's contribution to the country's cinema. Apparently, conservative hardliners and clerics, who had been celebrating Iran's first Oscar win, in particular its victory over the Israeli nominee, were displeased after being belatedly clued into the film’s content.  

So why the about-face at this late date? What subversive material somehow slipped the attention of the authorities only now to come to light? What is so controversial about A Separation?

Honestly, I was surprised Iran submitted A Separation for the Oscar at all. The image of modern day Iran in Farhadi’s film wasn’t as devastating as say, the corruption and violence ravaged country portrayed in Mexico’s submission, Miss Bala, but it is still a far cry from the picture one imagines controlling government officials would be eager to present to the world. [more after the jump]

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