Does Having a Co-Star Nominated in the Same Category Help or Hurt a Frontrunner?

by Christopher James
"Judas and the Black Messiah" became the 19th film to earn two nominations in Best Supporting Actor. Both Lakeith Stanfield (left) and Daniel Kaluuya (right) were nominated.Daniel Kaluuya has won all the major televised awards of the season so far for his tour-de-force performance as Fred Hampton in Judas and the Black Messiah. This should clear an easy path for him in Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars. The one difference: he faces off against co-star Lakeith Stanfield in the same category for the first time this season at the Oscars. Is this a show of confidence in the film, further solidifying his imminent win? Or does this open up the possibility for vote-splitting?
Theoretically, having multiple nominees from a film in a single category should double a film’s chances at winning...