Final Predictions: Supporting Actress, Foreign Film, and Sound Categories

by Nathaniel R

Expecting a high nomination count for "First Man" even if it misses Best PictureRunning out of time we are! So here are the final predictions for six more categories!

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
We've been over and over this one in our brains, trying to figure out that fifth spot (we don't believe, as some panicky folks do, that Regina King is in any danger of missing for Beale Street). In the end we're defaulting to Claire Foy in First Man who's been there all along. Primarily because she's been there all along and these things have a way of sticking if you're considered solidly in for months, even if you start losing steam toward the end of the season. We expect First Man to have a high nomination count despite predicting it to miss Best Picture and Claire Foy has remained visible all season. Sorry, Margot Robbie...

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VES Nominations & Final Visual Effects Oscar Predictions

by Nathaniel R

on the set of Solo: A Star Wars Story

The Visual Effects Society have released their nominations for the year. Avengers: Infinity War, Incredible 2, and Lost in Space lead the nominations in the movie, animated movie, and television divisions.  The full list of nominations, Oscar predictions, and a few comments follow...

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USC Scripter Noms & Final Screenplay Predictions

The USC Libraries, chaired by USC professor Howard Rodman, that began in 1988. Though they can signify strength moving into Oscar nominations, it's important to remember that they're a juried award from a college so not connected to the Oscar voting body, though perhaps Rodman himself is a member since he as once president of the WGA.  

Their nominations as well as our final predictions for Oscar's Screenplay categories are after the jump...

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Final Supporting Actor Predictions

by Nathaniel R

In a year of what appears to be abizarre cakewalk to an immediate second Oscar for leading man Mahershal Ali in Green Book, Best Supporting Actor is likely to be a bit dull this season. Nevertheless predict we must.

It's safe to say given the televised precursor wins and the strength of his film in the Best Picture race that Mahershala Ali is locked up for at least a nomination for his uneven leading performance despite this being a supporting category and despite his film being under constant attack. Adam Driver's film BlacKkKlansman has also been a consistent performer and Richard E Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me? appears to be the only real threat to Mahershala Ali's Oscar at this point given widespread enthusiasm about his performance (that is IF his campaign can pick up any steam in the final stretch)...

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Which of these animated films take the fifth spot in the Oscar race?

by Nathaniel R

Our final Oscar predictions continue with Animated Feature. Though we've learned never to wholly trust consensus in this race (that shocking omission of The Lego Movie!) we're assuming that Spider-Verse, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs and Ralph Breaks the Internet will be nominated. One spot is free. 

In Ye Olden Times (i.e. a couple of years ago before Oscar opened this category up to all voters, instead of just animators) we'd assume that that would be it for the mainstream titles and we'd also get Early Man (animators love Aardman films) or Japan's Mirai in there. But under the new rules we have to assume that The Grinch is a strong possibility since it's a massive hit (#7 of the whole year). But will anyone really put it at #1 on their ballots with Incredibles 2 (even more successful and more beloved) right there for the taking? Ruben Brandt Collector is memorable and stands out from the foreign pack in aesthetics but a qualifying release only was a bad move on Sony Pictures Classics part and it likely won't have been widely seen enough to garner many votes. Early Man didn't have the impact that Aardman films usually have (it's the lowest grossing of their features) so we're going with Mirai since it hails from a respected filmmaker, it honors Japan's robust industry, and it was boosted by that Golden Globe nod.

Related:
Animated Oscar chart | Reviews of Other Longshot Contenders Not Listed Above: MFKZ, Tito and the Birds, On Happiness Road, The Night is Short Walk on Girl, and Lu Over the Wall